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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Pitt Gorilla 09:35 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
This is unreal
Who uses a playground right now? I mean, WTF?
[Reply]
BigRedChief 09:36 PM 03-30-2020
This is what Exponential growth looks like


Reported US coronavirus cases via @CNN:

Four weeks ago: 102
Three weeks ago: 678
Two weeks ago: 4,459
One week ago: 42,663
Right now: 160,377

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 31, 2020

[Reply]
Titty Meat 09:37 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla:
Who uses a playground right now? I mean, WTF?
My kid has a fever better let her out in public! I thought that was fucking stupid but instead of apologizing the dumb bitch doubles down.
[Reply]
ping2000 09:42 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I didn't even think about hair cuts.

[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:43 PM 03-30-2020
hope is kindled


[Reply]
BigRedChief 09:44 PM 03-30-2020
Ford to build 50,000 ventilators in 100 days

Ford plans to make as many as 50,000 simple ventilators for coronavirus patients within 100 days and plans to continue producing 30,000 per month after that, the company announced Monday.

The automaker said it will make the ventilators at its Rawsonville Components Plant in Ypsilanti, Michigan. The factory will be staffed by 500 United Auto Workers union members who have volunteered to work on the project, Ford said.

The ventilator is currently being made by Florida-based Airon Corp. and has been licensed by GE Healthcare. Ford (F) has been working with GE Healthcare to help it increase its ventilator output.


The Airon Model A-E ventilator that Ford will produce operates on air pressure alone and requires no electricity. Airon currently makes three of the ventilators per day at its factory in Melbourne, Florida. Ford's plant will produce the ventilators around the clock with three shifts of workers, Ford said, and it will make 7,200 of the devices per week.
[Reply]
Fat Elvis 09:50 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla:
Kansas has handled this about as poorly as any state around here. Iowa had locked down restaurants AT LEAST a week prior to KS.
Not true. Kansas was one of most pro-active states regarding Covid-19. It is part of the reason why we've (knock on wood) have been able to flatten the curve as much as we have. Our governor got a lot of flack for the steps she took. By and large, the state (so far) has been spared the worst of it. Most of the cases in KS (roughly 2/3) are in JoCo/Wyandotte/Leavenworth which borders MO (which totally botched their response). The past three days KS has held steady on the number of new cases. Kansas has done, by and large, a pretty outstanding job so far.
[Reply]
Titty Meat 09:56 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis:
Not true. Kansas was one of most pro-active states regarding Covid-19. It is part of the reason why we've (knock on wood) have been able to flatten the curve as much as we have. Our governor got a lot of flack for the steps she took. By and large, the state (so far) has been spared the worst of it. Most of the cases in KS (roughly 2/3) are in JoCo/Wyandotte/Leavenworth which borders MO (which totally botched their response). The past three days KS has held steady on the number of new cases. Kansas has done, by and large, a pretty outstanding job so far.
Yup. Gov. Kelly & Mayor Lucas were some of the first in the region to take the lead against this. I'd have to look but the KC metro area might have been the first to issue a stay in place.

As mentioned earlier the midwest is looking like it could begin to get back here in the next few weeks.
[Reply]
ghak99 10:02 PM 03-30-2020
Middle of nowhere, Missouri.

Women tests positive, the first in the county, but is doing well and is a "non traveling" case. Believes her husband had it prior to her and he believes he got it from work as multiple workers on his shift were recently sick. Of course, they said they'd be contacting anyone the woman recently had close contact with. It's a small town, and multiple cashiers know she went through their line in the last few days. I know one of the cashiers very well, I urged her to take all her vacation days and then quit/retire as she can just get another job to add structure back into her life if she wants after all this blows over.

So, one positive test and at least 5, and probably more like 10, that can be assumed prior to getting to her test results. This is one of the reasons why I only casually watch the test results.

I thought I was going to die earlier this year and didn't even get off the floor once during one of those days. Whatever it was, it wasn't fun. I'd really like them to roll on with serology to see where we're actually at with this thing. I have a feeling a lot of people could be going back to work right now or even volunteering if they have skills or abilities needed somewhere.
[Reply]
cdcox 10:08 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Wouldn't that be true only if testing were random? As it is, testing is heavily weighted towards those showing symptoms and even then it's usually reserved for those with severe symptoms. Deaths on the other hand, are not asymptomatic.

Correct me if I am thinking wrong on this.
The assumption of exponential growth is that the rate of appearance of new cases is proportional to the number of existing cases. With respect to testing, if every individual is equally contagious, then my analysis before is correct regardless of who gets tested. It gets more complicated if the most symptomatic people (that are more likely to get tested) are also the most contagious. However, even if this is true, as you increase testing you are going to keep testing the most symptomatic with each increase in availability of testing. With this protocol, I think (gut feel, I haven't done the analysis) the math holds up until the point you are testing asymptomatic people. And we ain't any where close to doing that.
[Reply]
Sure-Oz 10:16 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla:
Who uses a playground right now? I mean, WTF?
My buddy was running in nkc and saw parents letting kids play on the equipment. It wasn't sealed off. I really don't understand why people aren't getting how serious this is. Locally I've seen equipment sealed off with police tape.
[Reply]
SuperBowl4 10:17 PM 03-30-2020
Dr. Creep predicted this Coronavirus to happen in 2020 back in 2013
[Reply]
cdcox 10:28 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
hope is kindled

At the current growth rate (16%) the number of cases would still double every five days. Once that curve reaches near zero, if we have adequate testing to quickly identify new cases, and if we can do comprehensive contact tracking, and if we had a social safety net to isolate the infected and quarantine the exposed, we could open most things up. This is where South Korea is. We could have gatherings up to 100 or so, but still no sports, concerts or other mass gatherings. Deviating from any of this, we will be right back where we are now.

The above situation would change with some combination of the following:
a) vaccine
b) evidence of significant herd immunity with limited mutations
c) a therapeutic that greatly reduced viral load
[Reply]
BossChief 10:52 PM 03-30-2020
Almost a million people in NY rode the subway today.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...iders.amp.html

I understand the difficulties it presents shutting down the subway system, but if they don’t (or at minimum limiting it to only health care and grocery workers) NY is goi g to get exponentially worse.
[Reply]
AustinChief 10:56 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by cdcox:
The assumption of exponential growth is that the rate of appearance of new cases is proportional to the number of existing cases. With respect to testing, if every individual is equally contagious, then my analysis before is correct regardless of who gets tested. It gets more complicated if the most symptomatic people (that are more likely to get tested) are also the most contagious. However, even if this is true, as you increase testing you are going to keep testing the most symptomatic with each increase in availability of testing. With this protocol, I think (gut feel, I haven't done the analysis) the math holds up until the point you are testing asymptomatic people. And we ain't any where close to doing that.
Got it. Regardless of "actual" number of infected you can still show a trend if the testing criteria stays relatively consistent. The only problem I see is that testing started with a small portion of the most severe cases and now is expanding to less and less severe as testing capacity increases.

Switching gears slightly, how do you feel about serology testing? We obviously can't test everyone but I would love to see communities across the US at least do some random sampling. I have a gut feeling that this disease is far more widespread then anyone suspects

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk
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