Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Pants:
I don't put much stock in these numbers because the testing is just so hopelessly inconsistent.
The Germans have a really low CRF but they probably tested a shit ton more people than Italy. There also shenanigans when it comes to causes of death and how those are tracked across all the affected countries.
Who ****ing knows, man. All we know is that tens of thousands of people are dying and it will be in the hundreds of thousands soon. ****ing sucks.
All this. Mortality rates are all over the place and we won't really know the true numbers until all of this is over.
Prepare yourself. Prepared people don't panic.
If you have children start talking to people close to you about taking care of your family should something happen. Have a plan should anyone in your family get sick. Large groups are bad but now is not the time for people to be living alone. This thing sometimes moves fast and if you're one of the unlucky ones you can go from the onset of symptoms to ICU in a day.
Be kind to people. We'll all be relying on each other before this is done... [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pants:
I don't put much stock in these numbers because the testing is just so hopelessly inconsistent.
The Germans have a really low CRF but they probably tested a shit ton more people than Italy. There also shenanigans when it comes to causes of death and how those are tracked across all the affected countries.
Who ****ing knows, man. All we know is that tens of thousands of people are dying and it will be in the hundreds of thousands soon. ****ing sucks.
I know, and I understand that. But if testing people creates hysteria by the number of positive cases (and we’re testing more than the whole world) it’s still good to know the mortality rate. Who knows? Maybe our testing is more accurate than other countries? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I believe there is mechanism for handling lost wages. Not certain though.
Yeah they're stealing it from other employees and redistributing it, probably to avoid unemployment claims against them. At least that's what I'm picking up here, that article was very vague. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pants:
I don't put much stock in these numbers because the testing is just so hopelessly inconsistent.
The Germans have a really low CRF but they probably tested a shit ton more people than Italy. There also shenanigans when it comes to causes of death and how those are tracked across all the affected countries.
Who fucking knows, man. All we know is that tens of thousands of people are dying and it will be in the hundreds of thousands soon. Fucking sucks.
This is absolutely true, so I hope this doesn't come off as callous, but...
I do think it's still important - not for the purposes of driving policy necessarily, but for our own mental health - to keep in mind the context a bit. It sounds like most are now expecting this to be in the range of 100k to 200k people dead in the U.S. For context, cancer and heart disease both kill around 600k people per year, and accidents, respiratory illness, accidents, and Alzheimer's disease all kill around 150k per year. For an individual person in their 80s, this probably moves their chances of death in the next 12 months from like 15% to 20%. Is it concerning? Absolutely. Should we be taking precautions? Of course. But chances are, a vast majority of the people you know will be just fine.
All of the work we're doing is still absolutely necessary, as without doing anything we'd likely be talking about deaths in the millions. My only point is just that, if we all hunker down and do what we're supposed to do, we'll remember this time more in terms of everyone getting stuck at home and the economic impacts rather than because the number of fatalities was unfathomably horrific (and I say that as a good thing).
I'm more worried about developing countries than I am about the U.S., Italy, or Spain at this point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
This is absolutely true, so I hope this doesn't come off as callous, but...
I do think it's still important - not for the purposes of driving policy necessarily, but for our own mental health - to keep in mind the context a bit. It sounds like most are now expecting this to be in the range of 100k to 200k people dead in the U.S. For context, cancer and heart disease both kill around 600k people per year, and accidents, respiratory illness, accidents, and Alzheimer's disease all kill around 150k per year. For an individual person in their 80s, this probably moves their chances of death in the next 12 months from like 15% to 20%. Is it concerning? Absolutely. Should we be taking precautions? Of course. But chances are, a vast majority of the people you know will be just fine.
All of the work we're doing is still absolutely necessary, as without doing anything we'd likely be talking about deaths in the millions. My only point is just that, if we all hunker down and do what we're supposed to do, we'll remember this time more in terms of everyone getting stuck at home and the economic impacts rather than because the number of fatalities was unfathomably horrific (and I say that as a good thing).
I'm more worried about developing countries than I am about the U.S., Italy, or Spain at this point.
I read something that since all the quarantine and stay at home stuff, average weekly fatalistic are down like 15k per week. SO thats good. [Reply]
JFC, unless you are implying that CP is full of elderly posters with significant underlying health issues, most people here will likely fall in the 80% category, in terms of people who get COVID-19 and have minimal to no symptoms.
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
You sure give some thought to why you think that shortage of PPE's gets "old" to you. I think your thoughts are that this damages your side of the political aisle. I don't see that angle.
I've not seen one story where the doctors, nurses are blaming anyone specifically for the PPE shortage. Just letting people know they desperately need PPE's to protect themselves and their patients.
There (of course) have been thefts of PPE equipment.
Originally Posted by :
Oregon police recovered thousands of N95 respirators after a man allegedly stole at least 20 cases of the masks, worth nearly $2,500.
Originally Posted by Bugeater:
True, there's Bwillie. He needs to go find a woman who can cook or at least spend his social distancing time watching some cooking shows.
My GF does cook but she doesn't live with me. If she caught the Ebolaids-19 I'd have no hope
Originally Posted by Mecca:
I just found Bwillie actually...
Accurate. Come play me on Golden Tee. I am Golfnado. I will take you for all your fake coins are worth.
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Well some people would die if they had to cook for themselves, that or eat spaghettios and frozen pizza for months.
Yes. I have a large supply of chunky beef soup. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
This is absolutely true, so I hope this doesn't come off as callous, but...
I do think it's still important - not for the purposes of driving policy necessarily, but for our own mental health - to keep in mind the context a bit. It sounds like most are now expecting this to be in the range of 100k to 200k people dead in the U.S.
Trump recently changed projections on the low and high end. If quarantine goes well they'e projecting 100-200 thousand deaths. If it doesn't go well 1 to 2 million.
This will be bad no matter and the world wide economic and political damage will linger long after the bug has passed. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rausch:
Trump recently changed projections on the low and high end. If quarantine goes well they'e projecting 100-200 thousand deaths. If it doesn't go well 1 to 2 million.
This will be bad no matter and the world wide economic and political damage will linger long after the bug has passed.
I don't believe this is true. If no social distancing was done we were looking at up to 2 million deaths. [Reply]
