Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Donger:
Nationally, no, it isn't. But some states are and have met the 10 to 14 day downward trajectory.
But I agree, opening up a state that is seeing continued growth is playing with fire. Like willingly running into a house with a fire that is growing.
No you're 100% right.
The trick to that is going to be a microcosm of a bigger issue. We're going to get jealous of countries that are re-opening while we're stuck at home.
Soon you're going to have the same thing in states. People in Colorado ticked that Wyoming is open, and people are going to get frustrated, even though Wyoming should be open. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Who the hell would want to go on a cruise in August... the height of what is expected to be a very active Atlantic hurricane season, while cruise ships even during normal times are incubators for the spread of contagious diseases.
I had a cruise scheduled last Labor Day out of Miami that got cancelled because of Dorian. We rescheduled it and it would have been this week if not for the current situation. If I do get to book it again, it definitely won’t be during August or September when the hurricanes start up again. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
I never knew how many people voluntarily go to the hospital to get procedures done... it's pretty crazy.
But yeah, in hindsight at least, I doubt hospitals would cancel all elective surgeries for a month or more again (from my limited knowledge of the situation)... there were so many unknowns though that they pulled the plug on everything that wasn't urgent.
I saw an interesting stat the other day when our GDP results came out and that was like half of our GDP loss was due to health care losses due to not doing elective surgeries etc. [Reply]
It'll get dangerously close to the dumb "x people die from y every year", but.... if we're not overrunning the hospitals or having it run rampant through the front lines, I do think we have to test the waters, so to speak.... and in many parts of the country, we're probably overdue for it.
The short term goal can't be to eradicate it forever, yet the alternative answers are quite messy.
OTOH, pretty sure I've known a few people who have gotten it.... and reading OTWP's story should scare anyone at least a little, so WTF do any of us know, really.
I agree. There are too many counties and states that are not truly affected as those with high density populations so those places should be allowed to resume as much as they deem fit. We cant hide under this rock and hope the boogeyman goes away because he isnt.....time to live and make do the best you can and let the rest of the world live. I am relatively young at 55 and in good shape with no medical issues OTHER than I am a throat cancer survivor x 3 years so yes, I am high risk as is my wife who survived breast cancer. I only mention this so as to give some credibility that I am not some heartless bastard with no skin in the game......but living under a rock is not sustainable much longer......especially for children who need to socialize at this point in their lives. They are the ones affected the most IMO. Elementary school through college.....half of their "education" comes with interaction with other students and teachers. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Oh so man the border with mines/turrets/military? What are you guys not understanding about the word pandemic?
The Shelter in place was to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed.. Now you think that is a viable strategy to fight the virus (It's not, Science says as much)
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
See, that's a concern that you are afforded. I believe that if that's your primary concern then you should consider yourself lucky.
Because people who are actually suffering and struggling through this are worried about their immediate needs, not hoping for the lives of strangers they don't know.
Well I'm worried about my family too (special needs daughter) but I can also be worried about others.
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
except there would always be a 2nd wave period. Regardless if you delay for how ever long opening things up
It's like you don't live in the real world.
Do you think you should have a plan before or just YOLO it ? I am fine with reopening but doing it in a grand scale everywhere doesn’t seem prudent. [Reply]
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
It would change every model from input to output and shapes of the curves. It definitely matters.
Na, not really. Models are built on thousands of data points and dozens of assumptions. Knowing that it existed earlier than we expected might make a minor impact, but it's not going to dramatically alter what we know or how we respond. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
Yeah, but to be honest, pretty much all those jobs will return when things get back to normal. Part of the reason that is happening is because people are not going to the hospital because they're worried about the virus.
It's like everything else, if you increase consumer confidence that they aren't going to risk catching the virus, things will return to normal. This half and half reopen plan is just going to make all these businesses bleed out slowly because none of them are going to be doing the business they were doing before.
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Our parents and grandparents scarified for years during WWII and rationed food etc. We have only been doing this a couple of months and people are ready to give up. Yes we can't do this forever but we should be doing it until June at least and to be honest we should have been doing the super lockdown instead of half ass measures.
Shutting down for a World War is different than shutting down for a virus. This is unprecedented and a very dangerous slippery slope. [Reply]
