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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Let's end the shutdown
Merde Furieux 07:21 AM 04-14-2020
Currently our economy is being decimated, not by a disease but by a series of governmental shutdown orders that have closed most businesses and resulted in millions of layoffs. These orders were based not on experience, but on models that we now know were wrong. It is critical to remember that the shutdown strategy was never intended to stop people from getting sick.

When we all emerge from hibernation, the virus will still be there, and some of us (more or less the same number) will still get sick. The idea was to “flatten the curve” by prolonging the epidemic, so that hospital resources would not be overwhelmed at any one time. We now know that projections of hospital and ICU use were wildly inaccurate. That means that the “flatten the curve” rationale has ceased to exist (unless you think there will be a vaccine or a cure within the next month or two, which won’t happen). So why are our governments persisting in devastating the lives of tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of Americans?

A reader from the New York area writes:

The models, as you have noted, are not tracking reality well, at all. Models pointed to large outbreaks of the virus washing over the country this week. Right now hospitals are managing just fine almost everywhere—well below capacity, in fact.

Even in NYC, the estimates of the beds and ventilators needed has been grossly wide of the mark: they’d estimated a need for 140,000 beds by last Friday, but only needed 8,500. Looking around the country, it doesn’t appear that any hospitals are using the emergency facilities they urgently threw up around the country. Even Louisiana got through its surge without being overwhelmed. Washington DC is supposedly 8 days past the peak as gauged by IHME, and nothing of note has happened. The expected epidemics haven’t materialized, indicating that there are big problems with the models, likely focusing on their assumptions about either the disease’s case fatality rate or its contagiousness (or both).

Note that social distancing should only now just be affecting hospital capacity – given that there’s a 3-week lag between when social distancing can begin to bring down new infections that can then progress to hospitalization severity. Most places only locked down at the end of March, so the lack of hospital utilization right now isn’t due to social distancing.

She notes this article by Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, titled “Coronavirus disease 2019: The harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures.” It is well worth your time. A couple of excerpts:

An argument in favour of lockdowns is that postponing the epidemic wave (“flattening the curve”) gains time to develop vaccines and reduces strain on the health system. However, vaccines take many months (or years) to develop and test properly. Maintaining lockdowns for many months may have even worse consequences than an epidemic wave that runs an acute course. Focusing on protecting susceptible individuals may be preferable to maintaining countrywide lockdowns longterm.
***
Leading figures insist that the current situation is a once‐in‐a‐century pandemic. A corollary might be that any reaction to it, no matter how extreme, is justified.

This year’s coronavirus outbreak is clearly unprecedented in amount of attention received. Media have capitalized on curiosity, uncertainty and horror. A Google search with “coronavirus” yielded 3 550 000 000 results on March 3 and 9 440 000 000 results on March 14. Conversely, “influenza” attracted 30‐ to 60‐fold less attention although this season it has caused so far more deaths globally than coronavirus.

Different coronaviruses actually infect millions of people every year, and they are common especially in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the winter. A serological analysis1 of CoV 229E and OC43 in 4 adult populations under surveillance for acute respiratory illness during the winters of 1999‐2003 (healthy young adults, healthy elderly adults, high‐risk adults with underlying cardiopulmonary disease and a hospitalized group) showed annual infection rates ranging from 2.8% to 26% in prospective cohorts, and prevalence of 3.3%‐11.1% in the hospitalized cohort. Case fatality of 8% has been described in outbreaks among nursing home elderly. Leaving the well‐known and highly lethal SARS and MERS coronaviruses aside, other coronaviruses probably have infected millions of people and have killed thousands. However, it is only this year that every single case and every single death gets red alert broadcasting in the news.

See original for citations. Our reader also points out this study by Dr. Ioannidis and others, which attempts to quantify the risk of death from COVID-19 in various demographic groups, based on data from nine countries including the U.S.:

The absolute risk of COVID-19 death ranged from 1.7 per million for people <65 years old in Germany to 79 per million in New York City. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from approximately 1 in 6,000 in Germany to 1 in 420 in Spain. The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City). People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City. CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

Finally, this one doesn’t come from our reader, but if you want to see what an old-fashioned epidemiologist from Germany thinks about social distancing, it is worth reading for entertainment value alone.

DR. WITTKOWSKI: With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated.

Interviewer: And so, what do you make of the policy that was enacted in the United States and England and most places throughout the world, this policy of containment, shelter-in-place, etc.? What’s your opinion of it?

DR. WITTKOWSKI: Well, what people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...n-covid-19.php
[Reply]
GloryDayz 02:25 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by MGRS13:
I believe, if you have listened to him at all, he has explained this is impossible. We as a country weren’t ready for this virus. We haven’t done a good job of testing nor have we come up with a new plan to improve the ability to test more. And we have no plan on what reopening the economy looks like. If you think it’s as easy as picking a date an d telling everyone “sorry everything is normal just forget the last three months” then you probably aren’t very well informed. If you believe then why wait? Shouldn’t we just go back to normal right now? No restrictions? We can just throw all the dead bodies in that snickers hole.
To people who believe this I say, tough! He either starts giving dates or his opinion isn't needed. While nobody wants to see anybody die, to neglect the economy, the American way of life, and never provide any sort of date predictions is just as bad as letting people party in the streets. IOW, we can't let this turn into a full-on depression because Fauci wouldn't crunch some numbers a give a date.

And if Fauci won't, replace him with somebody willing to at least try.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 02:40 PM 04-14-2020
It's Happening! Ohio Protests!






[Reply]
Mecca 02:41 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
It's Happening! Ohio Protests!





Yea people in North Carolina thought it was a good idea...at least 1 person got arrested.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 02:42 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Yea people in North Carolina thought it was a good idea...at least 1 person got arrested.
Getting arrested is part of the dea when practicing civil disobedience.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 03:32 PM 04-14-2020
Canada shows how they're using the ChiComm model on their own people under socialist/globalist Trudeau.

Our Canadian correspondent, David Maharaj, reports on the compassionate care his country’s government dispenses to the potentially ill:
“police are now visiting the homes of people who have been forcibly quarantined after testing positive (a test that has been shown to be criminally fraudulent). If the individuals have not compiled, they face a $750,000 fine, or six months in jail.”
[ I remember seeing video footage of similar actions by the ChiComms in Wuhan in tv.]

No wonder Susan Standfield-Spooner in British Columbia called for a “DYOM Design Your Own March” this past Sunday (thanks to a reader of LRC for alerting me to this):

NO MORE LOCKDOWNS

Global Freedom March

2pm every town, city, globally

DYOM Design Your Own March

Get out after the Easter Bunny comes Sunday and exercise your economic rights and civil liberties wherever you live. Walk, march, speak, demand NO MORE LOCKDOWNS from your govt and get your life back. If a third Emergency Order is signed Wednesday by Mike Farnsworth in my province of BC I will be heading to meet John Horgan and initiate a mass tort / class action against those personally responsible for destroying the BC economy xo

https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog...shows-the-way/

[Reply]
Over Yonder 06:04 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush:
I'm no rancher...why would an animal have to be euthanized when it isn't sold as quickly as it normally would be?
One problem that hasn't been mentioned here is packing house machinery. To kill animals on a large scale, you have to sell them to the big boys. And those machines are designed to kill an animal from x lbs. to y lbs. If that animal gets too big, they can't/won't kill them.

If you just have 2 or 3 animals, they can be processed by a small local processor no matter how big they are. If you have 20,000 animals, you have no other choice but to sell to a big guy. And if the animals exceed their machinery capabilities, they ain't buying.
[Reply]
Over Yonder 06:12 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
Social distancing made the difference! Keep doing it, wear your mask, surrender your liberty!
I'm so thankful to live out in the sticks. The only things that have changed for my daily life is I have to do my banking through the drive thru (lobby is by appointment only right now) and the recycling joint is closed (who cares). That's it. I can and do anything else I would normally do.

Now what will piss me off is if this screws with the NFL season. I intend to go to a game this year. :-)
[Reply]
Just Passin' By 06:44 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
I'm so thankful to live out in the sticks. The only things that have changed for my daily life is I have to do my banking through the drive thru (lobby is by appointment only right now) and the recycling joint is closed (who cares). That's it. I can and do anything else I would normally do.

Now what will piss me off is if this screws with the NFL season. I intend to go to a game this year. :-)

[Reply]
SuperBowl4 06:52 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
I'm so thankful to live out in the sticks. The only things that have changed for my daily life is I have to do my banking through the drive thru (lobby is by appointment only right now) and the recycling joint is closed (who cares). That's it. I can and do anything else I would normally do.

Now what will piss me off is if this screws with the NFL season. I intend to go to a game this year. :-)
Football/Sports is really not that important in the bigger scheme of things.
[Reply]
KCChiefsFan88 06:57 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by SuperBowl4:
Football/Sports is really not that important in the bigger scheme of things.
Football/sports produces billions in revenue that benefits local municipalities, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of jobs that are a part of sports.

The NFL will kickoff the 2020 season on time and it will be business as usual.

If California still wants to play lockdown five months from now then their NFL teams can move their home games out of state.
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:02 PM 04-14-2020

[Reply]
Raiderhader 07:37 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by HemiEd:
This part of the OP article really sums it up for me. Yes it is serious, but the media and the left have been responsible for blowing it way the hell out of proportion.

"Even in NYC, the estimates of the beds and ventilators needed has been grossly wide of the mark: they’d estimated a need for 140,000 beds by last Friday, but only needed 8,500. Looking around the country, it doesn’t appear that any hospitals are using the emergency facilities they urgently threw up around the country. Even Louisiana got through its surge without being overwhelmed. Washington DC is supposedly 8 days past the peak as gauged by IHME, and nothing of note has happened. The expected epidemics haven’t materialized, indicating that there are big problems with the models, likely focusing on their assumptions about either the disease’s case fatality rate or its contagiousness (or both)."
And there it is in a nutshell. We have surrendered, willingly so, personal and economic freedoms over the fear of speculated fatality numbers reached, in part, by unreliable data from communists. The measures we have taken should be an absolute last resort for a definitive worst case scenario.

And yet, not only did we jump the gun with our reaction but, even as the doomsday scenarios are starting to fall apart way too many continue defend the overreaction that is ultimately going to harm more lives than it saves. These are absolutely insane times we are living in.
[Reply]
CarlosCarson88 07:51 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Raiderhader:
And there it is in a nutshell. We have surrendered, willingly so, personal and economic freedoms over the fear of [U]speculated[/] fatality numbers reached, in part, by unreliable data from communists. The measures we have taken should be an absolute last resort for a definitive worst case scenario.

And yet, not only did we jump the gun with our reaction but, even as the doomsday scenarios are starting to fall apart way too many continue defend the overreaction that is ultimately going to harm more lives than it saves. These are absolutely insane times we are living in.
Actually you've lived in insane times since the day you were born. That's what set this all up. The need for money and obeying govt. .this isn't a mistake. This was planned years ago
[Reply]
SuperBowl4 08:09 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Football/sports produces billions in revenue that benefits local municipalities, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of jobs that are a part of sports.

The NFL will kickoff the 2020 season on time and it will be business as usual.

If California still wants to play lockdown five months from now then their NFL teams can move their home games out of state.
Just because I am from California doesn't mean I support the BS leadership here. Don't generalize **** because it only makes you look like a douchebag.
[Reply]
Eleazar 09:25 PM 04-14-2020
I think the shutdowns were prudent, they seem to have worked, and we also need to demand from our leaders a clear-cut plan to end them with some objective goals and stages to restore to full operations.

The citizenry has a responsibility to follow the leaders they’ve chosen but also to insist on accountability. That doesn’t mean “reopen everything now”, but the people have a right to hear a clear plan.
[Reply]
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