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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Let's end the shutdown
Merde Furieux 07:21 AM 04-14-2020
Currently our economy is being decimated, not by a disease but by a series of governmental shutdown orders that have closed most businesses and resulted in millions of layoffs. These orders were based not on experience, but on models that we now know were wrong. It is critical to remember that the shutdown strategy was never intended to stop people from getting sick.

When we all emerge from hibernation, the virus will still be there, and some of us (more or less the same number) will still get sick. The idea was to “flatten the curve” by prolonging the epidemic, so that hospital resources would not be overwhelmed at any one time. We now know that projections of hospital and ICU use were wildly inaccurate. That means that the “flatten the curve” rationale has ceased to exist (unless you think there will be a vaccine or a cure within the next month or two, which won’t happen). So why are our governments persisting in devastating the lives of tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of Americans?

A reader from the New York area writes:

The models, as you have noted, are not tracking reality well, at all. Models pointed to large outbreaks of the virus washing over the country this week. Right now hospitals are managing just fine almost everywhere—well below capacity, in fact.

Even in NYC, the estimates of the beds and ventilators needed has been grossly wide of the mark: they’d estimated a need for 140,000 beds by last Friday, but only needed 8,500. Looking around the country, it doesn’t appear that any hospitals are using the emergency facilities they urgently threw up around the country. Even Louisiana got through its surge without being overwhelmed. Washington DC is supposedly 8 days past the peak as gauged by IHME, and nothing of note has happened. The expected epidemics haven’t materialized, indicating that there are big problems with the models, likely focusing on their assumptions about either the disease’s case fatality rate or its contagiousness (or both).

Note that social distancing should only now just be affecting hospital capacity – given that there’s a 3-week lag between when social distancing can begin to bring down new infections that can then progress to hospitalization severity. Most places only locked down at the end of March, so the lack of hospital utilization right now isn’t due to social distancing.

She notes this article by Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, titled “Coronavirus disease 2019: The harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures.” It is well worth your time. A couple of excerpts:

An argument in favour of lockdowns is that postponing the epidemic wave (“flattening the curve”) gains time to develop vaccines and reduces strain on the health system. However, vaccines take many months (or years) to develop and test properly. Maintaining lockdowns for many months may have even worse consequences than an epidemic wave that runs an acute course. Focusing on protecting susceptible individuals may be preferable to maintaining countrywide lockdowns longterm.
***
Leading figures insist that the current situation is a once‐in‐a‐century pandemic. A corollary might be that any reaction to it, no matter how extreme, is justified.

This year’s coronavirus outbreak is clearly unprecedented in amount of attention received. Media have capitalized on curiosity, uncertainty and horror. A Google search with “coronavirus” yielded 3 550 000 000 results on March 3 and 9 440 000 000 results on March 14. Conversely, “influenza” attracted 30‐ to 60‐fold less attention although this season it has caused so far more deaths globally than coronavirus.

Different coronaviruses actually infect millions of people every year, and they are common especially in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the winter. A serological analysis1 of CoV 229E and OC43 in 4 adult populations under surveillance for acute respiratory illness during the winters of 1999‐2003 (healthy young adults, healthy elderly adults, high‐risk adults with underlying cardiopulmonary disease and a hospitalized group) showed annual infection rates ranging from 2.8% to 26% in prospective cohorts, and prevalence of 3.3%‐11.1% in the hospitalized cohort. Case fatality of 8% has been described in outbreaks among nursing home elderly. Leaving the well‐known and highly lethal SARS and MERS coronaviruses aside, other coronaviruses probably have infected millions of people and have killed thousands. However, it is only this year that every single case and every single death gets red alert broadcasting in the news.

See original for citations. Our reader also points out this study by Dr. Ioannidis and others, which attempts to quantify the risk of death from COVID-19 in various demographic groups, based on data from nine countries including the U.S.:

The absolute risk of COVID-19 death ranged from 1.7 per million for people <65 years old in Germany to 79 per million in New York City. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from approximately 1 in 6,000 in Germany to 1 in 420 in Spain. The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City). People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City. CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

Finally, this one doesn’t come from our reader, but if you want to see what an old-fashioned epidemiologist from Germany thinks about social distancing, it is worth reading for entertainment value alone.

DR. WITTKOWSKI: With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated.

Interviewer: And so, what do you make of the policy that was enacted in the United States and England and most places throughout the world, this policy of containment, shelter-in-place, etc.? What’s your opinion of it?

DR. WITTKOWSKI: Well, what people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...n-covid-19.php
[Reply]
Mecca 09:16 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
Are you rooting for the police state?
No, I just would rather not end up in total martial law because people want to be stupid.
[Reply]
loochy 09:17 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
Not if it goes on too long. There's already a protest being planned for the aware who aren't sheep. You musta' missed that post.
Not to mention the defiance by some pastors. Need to create cases to bring lawsuits. And don't forget the suicides. The suicidals aren't taking it.

I always hear big talk and I see little action. We'll see.
[Reply]
loochy 09:17 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Like...in the ass?

Yeah, basically.
[Reply]
Mecca 09:18 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
I always hear big talk and I see little action. We'll see.
That's pretty much my take too, people talk shit about how they'll resist and push back but in the moment, they don't do shit.
[Reply]
baitism 09:18 AM 04-14-2020
The people that died from COVID would have died from other stuff. Closing the economy was dumb.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 09:20 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
I always hear big talk and I see little action. We'll see.
Little action? Don't know what you're reading about. Some churches engaged in civil disobedience already.

Then you have civil libertarians and lawyers writing op-eds doubting it's legality under the Constitution and some on Fox, with one lawyer claiming some on the left are now questioning it, it looks like the seed of an idea emerging. That's how it begins — with ideas first. A good sign if you ask me.

BTW only 2% got out war for independence rolling. Most didn't even know what was going on 'til later.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 09:21 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mecca:
No, I just would rather not end up in total martial law because people want to be stupid.

Exercising rights is "stupid". OK.

All the models have been wrong. Confirmed deaths are actually around 7,000-- and by confirmed I mean they tested positive for covid but died from pneumonia, diabetes et al.

The government cannot justify continuing this "shutdown" based on those numbers. For Homeless people, people in nursing homes, people who are terminally ill, any way.
[Reply]
backinblack 09:22 AM 04-14-2020
it should end if for no other reason that it's making people miserable. It's the middle of spring, the weather is finally getting nice, but now you tell people that they have to stay cooped up inside their house? Maybe I have a different perspective because I live in a very outdoorsy oriented area, people around here love their outdoor recreation. There'e people suggesting this could last all summer, and like I do not see that happening in any way, once you start pushing this crap past Memorial Day weekend people aren't going to take it anymore.
[Reply]
loochy 09:22 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
Little action? Don't know what you're reading about. Some churches engaged in civil disobedience already.

Then you have civil libertarians and lawyers writing op-eds doubting it's legality under the Constitution and some on Fox, with one lawyer claiming some on the left are now questioning it, it looks like the seed of an idea emerging. That's how it begins-- with ideas first.

Well, we can hope...but people have been waaay too easily herded on this
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 09:22 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mecca:
That's pretty much my take too, people talk shit about how they'll resist and push back but in the moment, they don't do shit.
Some will. Some won't. Not everyone is needed to change something.

Let the sheep sit in their paddocks being fed grass and water by their owners, while the rest break-out. They can thank us later. Well scrap that last point, the totalitarians will never thank us for keeping them free.
[Reply]
AdolfOliverBush 09:23 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
Little action? Don't know what you're reading about. Some churches engaged in civil disobedience already.

Then you have civil libertarians and lawyers writing op-eds doubting it's legality under the Constitution and some on Fox, with one lawyer claiming some on the left are now questioning it, it looks like the seed of an idea emerging. That's how it begins-- with ideas first.
Church services? Op-eds on lewrockwell.com? Way to stick it to the man. :-)
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 09:24 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
Well, we can hope...but people have been waaay too easily herded on this
"Herd" is a good word for sheep. :-)
[Reply]
Mecca 09:25 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by backinblack:
it should end if for no other reason that it's making people miserable. It's the middle of spring, the weather is finally getting nice, but now you tell people that they have to stay cooped up inside their house? Maybe I have a different perspective because I live in a very outdoorsy oriented area, people around here love their outdoor recreation. There'e people suggesting this could last all summer, and like I do not see that happening in any way, once you start pushing this crap past Memorial Day weekend people aren't going to take it anymore.
We've had 3 nice days.......it's currently like 38....supposed to be cold for the next 2 weeks.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 09:26 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mecca:
No, I just would rather not end up in total martial law because people want to be stupid.
Well, Hillsborough County which includes the city of Tampa, instituted that last night by setting a curfew at 9 PM until 5 AM this morning.

Naturally, it has a Democrat mayor.
[Reply]
Just Passin' By 09:26 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mecca:
No, I just would rather not end up in total martial law because people want to be stupid.
The stupidity and overreach of the governing bodies (Michigan is an excellent example) is leading to responses, and that's a situation that's ripe for an increasingly confrontational near future. Blaming the masses for that is folly.
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