Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by lewdog:
It’s hit or miss unless you’re need a ventilator. I find it crazy that so many in the young group are needing some form of hospital care from this virus.
Ventilator stays are tracking over 2 weeks on average, tying up a vent to that patient for quite a long time.
I'd be curious to know how many of the ventilator patients are vapers and what not? I've had some doctors say that shit is worse than smoking, Covid aside even. [Reply]
Dr. Atlas: New coronavirus cases should not be the focus -- it should be hospitalizations, deaths
While infection rate rises in new hotspots, death rate has not, doctor says
Former Stanford University Medical Center Chief of Neuroradiology Dr. Scott Atlas said Monday that there is too strong a focus on one aspect of coronavirus statistics at the present time, and not enough on another.
Atlas, a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, said on "The Story" that there's been a heavy focus on an uptick in cases, especially in places where governors either have reinstated or have further enforced restrictions.
"When we see this focus on more cases, it doesn't really matter how many cases -- it only matters who gets the cases. We know that the infection-fatality rate for people under 70 is 0.04 percent -- that's less than or equal to the seasonal flu," he said.
"The cases themselves should not be and were never the focus. It's only the tragic consequences of the cases. When we look at the cases in every state, the overwhelming majority are younger and healthier people."
He said in the newer hotspots of Florida and Texas, the median age of those infected has varied from under 30 to about 40 -- and those flareups mean little, so long as those hardier folks recover as they would from any other virus or disease.
Atlas said what matters is the rate at which high-risk people are being affected -- and whether the capacity for treatment still exists and whether the death rate from the virus is going up.
He said that instead of bad news on that front, despite the uptick in infections in various states, the death rate from coronavirus is actually decreasing.
"I realize we have to wait to see the story play out here, but right now, the cases are going up for three weeks and we have no increase, in fact, we have a decrease in death rates. It doesn't matter if you get the illness if you're going to fully recover and be fine from it -- That's what people must understand. For younger healthier people, there's not a high risk from this disease at all."
In Texas, the government has ordered bars and other establishments to close again, among other mitigation orders.
Originally Posted by lewdog:
This age group has stayed on top of the COVID hospitalizations in AZ for the past month, so your logic is faulty.
The amount of people in their 20-40's needing hospital care is normally very low, so by your scenario this wouldn't fit the numbers. And those needing a "knee surgery" who are testing positive for COVID in the hospital and being recorded as live data over weeks and weeks simply doesn't make sense. They'd be positive and discharged home quickly, not taking up bed space. Those in the hospital in this age group are receiving lots of care for COVID symptoms.
I bet you're another dipshit who is far removed from the medical community, making more illogical claims.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Dr. Atlas: New coronavirus cases should not be the focus -- it should be hospitalizations, deaths
While infection rate rises in new hotspots, death rate has not, doctor says
Former Stanford University Medical Center Chief of Neuroradiology Dr. Scott Atlas said Monday that there is too strong a focus on one aspect of coronavirus statistics at the present time, and not enough on another.
Atlas, a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, said on "The Story" that there's been a heavy focus on an uptick in cases, especially in places where governors either have reinstated or have further enforced restrictions.
"When we see this focus on more cases, it doesn't really matter how many cases -- it only matters who gets the cases. We know that the infection-fatality rate for people under 70 is 0.04 percent -- that's less than or equal to the seasonal flu," he said.
"The cases themselves should not be and were never the focus. It's only the tragic consequences of the cases. When we look at the cases in every state, the overwhelming majority are younger and healthier people."
He said in the newer hotspots of Florida and Texas, the median age of those infected has varied from under 30 to about 40 -- and those flareups mean little, so long as those hardier folks recover as they would from any other virus or disease.
Atlas said what matters is the rate at which high-risk people are being affected -- and whether the capacity for treatment still exists and whether the death rate from the virus is going up.
He said that instead of bad news on that front, despite the uptick in infections in various states, the death rate from coronavirus is actually decreasing.
"I realize we have to wait to see the story play out here, but right now, the cases are going up for three weeks and we have no increase, in fact, we have a decrease in death rates. It doesn't matter if you get the illness if you're going to fully recover and be fine from it -- That's what people must understand. For younger healthier people, there's not a high risk from this disease at all."
In Texas, the government has ordered bars and other establishments to close again, among other mitigation orders.
Originally Posted by TLO:
0.04%? I'd like to see where that number came from.
The CDC's five scenarios include one based on "a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States." That scenario assumes a "basic reproduction number" of 2.5, meaning the average carrier can be expected to infect that number of people in a population with no immunity. It assumes an overall symptomatic case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.4 percent, roughly four times the estimated CFR for the seasonal flu. The CDC estimates that the CFR for COVID-19 falls to 0.05 percent among people younger than 50 and rises to 1.3 percent among people 65 and older. For people in the middle (ages 50–64), the estimated CFR is 0.2 percent.
That "best estimate" scenario also assumes that 35 percent of infections are asymptomatic, meaning the total number of infections is more than 50 percent larger than the number of symptomatic cases. It therefore implies that the IFR is between 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent. By contrast, the projections that the CDC made in March, which predicted that as many as 1.7 million Americans could die from COVID-19 without intervention, assumed an IFR of 0.8 percent. Around the same time, researchers at Imperial College produced a worst-case scenario in which 2.2 million Americans died, based on an IFR of 0.9 percent. https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/
Keep in mind the IFR will be lower than the CFR... [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
0.04%? I'd like to see where that number came from.
I am not sure where he got the data but I am in no position to question it at this time anyway. Anecdotally speaking there has been all of 7 deaths of people under 70 In JoCo and 0 under 40 out of almost 2300 cases. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I am not sure where he got the data but I am in no position to question it at this time anyway. Anecdotally speaking there has been all of 7 deaths of people under 70 In JoCo and 0 under 40 out of almost 2300 cases.
You act like no one over 70 counts. The average life expectancy of a 70 year old in the US is 15 years. [Reply]
Originally Posted by cdcox:
You act like no one over 70 counts. The average life expectancy of a 70 year old in the US is 15 years.
And there we go with the straw man. I state the actual data and "you hate old people".
You're a fucking idiot. No where did I say people over 70 doesn't count. But you choose to willfully take what I said out of context, present a straw man then go on to act like you are above something when in reality all you did was ignore what was said because you wanted to be a dick
