https://theathletic.com/1078452/2019...ck-in-between/
Redbird Reset: In a world of trade-deadline buyers and sellers, the Cardinals are stuck in between
By Bernie Miklasz Jul 15, 2019
As applied to the Cardinals, the traditional “buyer or seller” question is confusing.
I understand the buyer part. Approaching the July 31 trade deadline, the Cardinals are in the middle of the National League Central pileup, two games in back of the first-place Cubs. They’re doing even more favorably in the NL Wild Card derby.
This isn’t to suggest that the Cardinals are good. Their 47-45 record is pretty much in line with the adjusted-standings model based on run differential and strength of schedule.
According to Monday’s Playoff Odds report at FanGraphs, the Cardinals have an 8.9 percent shot at winning the division and a 22.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. The rest-of-season projection at FanGraphs has St. Louis finishing with an 82-80 record.
That does not inspire. But if we want to use the basic, old-fashioned daily standings as the only gauge, then the Cardinals are part of the scrum.
If the Cardinals want to improve the roster, strengthen frail areas and make a push — well, have at it, John Mozeliak. But for now, the Cards’ president of baseball operations is noncommittal.
“The assessment is: Can we start playing better?” Mozeliak told MLB.com during the All-Star break. “If we can, then it can be more directionally or specific on what we’ll try to do. But if we’re still hovering around .500, it might be a different course of action. You could be at .500 and leading your division but … that probably means we haven’t changed a whole lot.”
And let’s suppose Mozeliak makes the decision to largely stay out of the “buyer” market for a fifth consecutive summer. Let’s suppose he chooses to go into “seller” mode near the trade deadline.
Simple question: What, exactly, do the Cardinals have to sell? I’m not trying to be a wiseguy here. It’s a serious inquiry.
Frankly, I don’t see a helluva lot.
Selling makes sense if your team can auction talented players who have reasonable, digestible contracts that don’t scare off potential trade partners.
Selling off makes sense if you’re planning a moderate rebuild. Even then, you’d choose this option only if you had the right players to entice other teams into offering true value in return. The kind of players who would make the Cardinals more complete and formidable in 2020 and beyond.
Mozeliak already has said (to KMOX radio) that top hitting prospects Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson are off-limits.
Given Yadier Molina’s age and contract, we’ll assume rookie catcher Andrew Knizner is on the no-trade list as well.
Outfielder Randy Arozarena, 24, is blasting through a breakout season at Triple-A Memphis. But isn’t he part of the next wave of young talent? OK, yeah, I guess Arozarena could be available. But does his talent excite other teams? I don’t know.
The Cardinals have a progressing pitching prospect in Junior Fernandez, but their pitching depth is thinner now. Be careful.
Truth is, the Cardinals’ $164 million payroll is jammed by aging and/or underperforming players. And in some instances, those players carry unappealing contracts.
Let’s go around the horn:
Catcher Molina, 37, has a year to go at $20 million. He’s injured. And even if the opportunity was there, would the Cardinals trade away a franchise icon?
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt almost certainly will have a stronger second half, but he’ll be 32 next season when his five-year contract extension kicks in at an annual salary of $26 million.
Second baseman Kolten Wong is a marvelous defender. But with 2,326 games on his major-league résumé, Wong has a career .706 OPS and 92 wRC+ that’s 8 percent below league average offensively. He’ll make a guaranteed $10.25 million in 2020 — with a team option of $12.5 million for 2021.
Third baseman Matt Carpenter, 33, is having a career-worst season. During spring training, Mozeliak gave Carpenter a two-year contract extension that pays $18.5 million per season.
Shortstop Paul DeJong is a marketable talent. But current slump aside, why would the Cardinals part with DeJong’s above-average defense and career .469 slugging percentage? Moreover, DeJong is working on a good-value contract that averages $5.3 million between 2020 and 2023.
Left fielder Marcell Ozuna can become a free agent after the season. And unless the Cardinals are serious about discussing a contract extension with Ozuna, he could be offered as a summer rental. But Ozuna’s trade value was compromised by a hand injury; he might still be on the injured list when the deadline rolls around.
Center fielder Harrison Bader is an excellent defender who can’t hit breaking balls or off-speed pitches.
Dexter Fowler, who can play center or right, is having a solid 2019 season. But he’s owed a guaranteed $33 million (total) over the next two seasons.
José Martínez has a low salary. He’s a designated hitter stuck in the National League. Would a DH-needy American League team make a pitch for Martínez? And what could the Cardinals receive in return? Keep those expectations in check.
Outfielder Tyler O’Neill has abundant raw power — and an MLB strikeout rate of 41 percent through his limited opportunities (only 220 plate appearances).
There could be a market for O’Neill. But O’Neill is unproven because the Cardinals haven’t given him a full docket of playing time.
The Cardinals acquired O’Neill for lefty pitcher Marco Gonzales, who has accrued 5.6 fWAR for the Mariners since the start of 2018. Imagine the blowback if the Cardinals were to deal O’Neill and watch him develop into, say, a Joey Gallo-type slugger.
Rookie center fielder Lane Thomas might attract some interest, and the Cardinals have the aforementioned Carlson and Arozarena waiting in line for a big-league arrival.
As for the pitchers …
Adam Wainwright soon turns 38. His contract expires after the season. He’s pitching well, but the Cardinals won’t be trading Waino.
Michael Wacha is a free agent after the season and has just been demoted to the bullpen. He has a 5.54 ERA and is below the replacement level with a minus-0.5 fWAR.
Jack Flaherty (age 23) and rookie Dakota Hudson (24) are cost-controlled and talented. They’re keepers. Daniel Ponce de Leon (27) is older and has less upside. But he has value — to the Cardinals, at least — with his ability to start or pitch out of the bullpen. I can’t envision a major offer for “Ponce.” But he can stay here and seize a belated opportunity.
Miles Mikolas was very good in 2018, but it’s the only time he has posted a successful big-league season. Mikolas hasn’t been as effective this year. Sure, he’s capable of adjusting and thriving in the second half. But the deadline is July 31. Mikolas also has full no-trade protection as part of a new contract that will pay him $68 million over four seasons beginning in 2020.
Alex Reyes: The poor fellow can’t stay healthy. At last look, he had a 6.03 ERA at Memphis. His trade value has decreased. There could be some interest — but only if the Cardinals are willing to sell low.
The current cast of relievers has two intriguing trade candidates in lefty Andrew Miller and right-hander Carlos Martinez.
While showing improvement over the past two-plus months, Miller, 34, is experiencing a disappointing season overall. He’s below-replacement level at minus-0.3 fWAR and has yielded homers at an alarming rate of 2.2 per nine innings.
Miller will make around $5 million for the remainder of this season and is due to collect $11.25 million in 2020. There’s also a vesting option that could trigger a $12 million salary for 2021. That’s a lot of cash to take on for a reliever who appears to be in decline.
Martinez, the wild card, is guaranteed $11.7 million in 2020 — and another $11.7 million in 2021. But he has had shoulder problems. He didn’t properly rehab the shoulder last offseason and wasn’t physically ready to pitch at the start of the season. That necessitated a transfer to a relief role.
The Cardinals haven’t been happy with Martinez, and other general managers know this. What’s his trade value? Once upon a time, the Cardinals could have received a treasure of talent for Martinez. These days, he’s risky business.
Face it, the Cardinals are a stuck-in-the-middle team. They aren’t going all-in with a youth movement. They don’t have a large influx of elite prospects in the queue and being prepared to dramatically transform the roster.
The Cardinals mostly have medium-level veteran talent, funded by MLB’s sixth-largest payroll in 2019. And this payroll squeeze will only intensify. (More on that in a bit.)
Frankly, this is a jumble.
This is a catawampus roster.
And it’s up to chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and his front office to find a way out of the labyrinth.
Related questions and comments:
1. Buying, selling, whatever. There’s another goal for Mozeliak to pursue, but it won’t be easy. Perhaps Mozeliak can pull off a deal or two to clear some payroll. I don’t think the Cardinals would add any real talent in the process, but at least they’d ease some of the payroll clog, which threatens their flexibility and potential for significant improvement in 2020 and 2021.
2. Mozeliak was able to dump Allen Craig’s contract on Boston in July 2014, but those kind of moves are rare now. Front offices are on guard to prevent future thefts.
3. According to Cots Contracts, Mozeliak already has a guaranteed $147.5 million committed to the team’s 2020 payroll. And the 2021 payroll contains $97.4 million in salary guarantees. Good grief.
4. For now, let’s focus on 2020. Nine players will eat up $138.65 million in guaranteed dollars in 2020: Fowler, Molina, Carpenter, Goldschmidt, Martinez, Miller, Mikolas, Wong and injured missing-person reliever Brett Cecil.
5. So far in 2019, those nine players have combined for 4.7 fWAR. You may weep now. I understand.
6. Back to the “seller” concept. What is your confidence level in this front office? What’s the basis for believing that current management could swing value trades by moving current players?
7. Since the offseason leading into 2016, the Cardinals have traded Jon Jay, Charlie Tilson, Jaime Garcia, Matt Adams, Marco Gonzales, Mike Leake, Aledmys Díaz, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Sam Tuivailala, Oscar Mercado, Tommy Pham, Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver and Luke Voit.
Since being moved by the Cardinals, those players have combined for 35.2 fWAR elsewhere. And what about the players acquired by the Cardinals during those series of transactions? Well, they’ve combined for only 15.0 fWAR.
8. I’m not saying all of the trades were awful. I’m not close to writing off Goldschmidt as an elite performer.
We like pitchers John Gant and Giovanny Gallegos. And if Yairo Muñoz ever had a chance to play full time, he could blossom.
In fairness, the book is still open on several trades; it depends on the prospects collected by the Cardinals. Will any develop into something special and help lead this team back to higher ground?
We can only wait and see. But again, here’s the bottom line through Sunday: St. Louis traded 35.2 fWAR and have 15.0 fWAR to show for it. Not exactly the kind of exchange rate you’re looking for, right?
9. The Cardinals used to be smarter than just about any team in evaluating starting pitchers. Well, here’s a note to chew on: Starters traded by the Cardinals — or given a pass to walk as a free agent — are outperforming the Cards’ rotation in 2019. Let’s go to the scorecards:
Lance Lynn (free agent), Marco Gonzales, Luke Weaver, Sandy Alcantara, Mike Leake and Zac Gallen have combined for 10.2 fWAR.
As a group, the St. Louis starters have combined for 3.9 fWAR.
10. Finally: If Mozeliak concludes his team is unworthy of a significant “buyer” addition at the trade deadline, what does that say about the front-office acuity? After all, Mozeliak, GM Michael Girsh and the baseball ops department constructed this roster.
We could be in for a crazy countdown to July 31. If the Cardinals can get more from their best players and begin clicking off wins, that should shape Mozeliak’s deadline deliberations.
Buyers?
Sellers?
I supplied the answer earlier in this column: The Cardinals are somewhere in that murky middle. And that’s been a big problem over the past three-plus seasons.
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