Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
Do you think your district has beat this? Because I don’t at all. Once the shut down is over all indications are you will have lots of cases. And will just be where a lot of places are now with it only it’s months from now.
^this^ The virus is here and can be totally mitigated in only a few ways, Herd Immunity or a Vaccine. You can manage it as best you can by trying to protect those most valuable why those less vulnerable develop herd immunity. This will allow you to get to the ideal point faster than extreme social distancing measures which just spread the results out on a longer time horizon. We did that to flatten the curve so we weren't overwhelmed, probably a good call, but now we can move forward in developing Herd immunity. The 2nd option of a vaccine is highly unlikely, as no Coronavirus has ever had a vaccine that worked, from what I understand. [Reply]
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
^this^ The virus is here and can be totally mitigated in only a few ways, Herd Immunity or a Vaccine. You can manage it as best you can by trying to protect those most valuable why those less vulnerable develop herd immunity. This will allow you to get to the ideal point faster than extreme social distancing measures which just spread the results out on a longer time horizon. We did that to flatten the curve so we weren't overwhelmed, probably a good call, but now we can move forward in developing Herd immunity. The 2nd option of a vaccine is highly unlikely, as no Coronavirus has ever had a vaccine that worked, from what I understand.
Originally Posted by banyon:
Of course it is not flawed. The Flu data covers 2 years, the COVID19 data a couple of months. The COVID19 data may eventually reach that denominator, but it is not there yet. We have to use the numbers we currently possess.
What CFR do you want to use instead and how did YOU arrive at it?
The flu data doesn't cover two years. It covers Flu Season which is typically Nov-March. Nov. 2017-March 2018, would be Flu Season. This is also discussed in the CDC link:
Originally Posted by :
The exact timing and duration of flu seasons can vary, but influenza activity often begins to increase in October. Most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, although activity can last as late as May.
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
It's not the only factor but the major one. We know that 90% of hospitalizations and deaths are those that are older and/or have an underlying condition. Many estimates say around 80% are asymptomatic, so yes, are future policy should be trying to protect the vulnerable class and letting many of those of the 28,000,000 unemployed start to get their lives back. We are way better now at knowing what we are encountering, how to mitigate it, and we should move forward.
We have locked down old age homes pretty early on yet it is still getting in How do we stop that , what is the percentage of 60year old who qualify as high risk , is that considered old? [Reply]
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
The flu data doesn't cover two years. It covers Flu Season which is typically Nov-March. Nov. 2017-March 2018, would be Flu Season. This is also discussed in the CDC link:
So your point is it covers several months with no lockdown as opposed to a couple of months with a lockdown? What denominator did you want me to use? Even if it’s 10x your point would still be wrong.
Again YOU claimed that the CFR for Flu for under 65 was higher than COVID. I’m willing to show my math you aren’t.
There’s no need to be so evasive on this just say you overreached. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
We have locked down old age homes pretty early on yet it is still getting in How do we stop that , what is the percentage of 60year old who qualify as high risk , is that considered old?
Originally Posted by banyon:
So your point is it covers several months with no lockdown as opposed to a couple of months with a lockdown? What denominator did you want me to use? Even if it’s 10x your point would still be wrong.
Again YOU claimed that the CFR for Flu for under 65 was higher than COVID. I’m willing to show my math you aren’t.
There’s no need to be so evasive on this just say you overreached.
Did you read the link? Did you see the graph? The bulk of the flu is over a 2 month period... GTFO
You used 441,000 cases as your denominator... You don't really think that's true. Show me your math how 10x that number would still be wrong... [Reply]
