Just for fun, I went back and looked at quarterback performance throughout NFL history. I was interested in identifying periods of quarterback dominance.
So I created a measure of quaterback performance that is in equal part based on effectiveness (yards/attempt, completion %, interception %), and pure production (passing yards, total touchdowns, and starts). Starts is because some statistics get scarce as we go backwards through time.
My measure ranks quarterbacks in each category, but it also accounts for their performance relative to other quarterbacks in the league. So for example, if a quarterback has a slightly higher interception percentage than the league average, but throws for far more yards, that quarterback will get a higher score.
I'll present a table to you of the top ten quarterbacks in the league in 2018, and I'll add to it by year as the offseason drags on. I'm hoping that it'll create some discussion.
So without further ado, here are the top ten rankings for 2018. It'll get more interesting as I add more years. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
I added the 2010 and 2011 data in the enclosed file, and today we'll take a look at the quarterbacks from those draft classes. It almost makes feel better about Matt Cassel.
These are the quarterbacks who were drafted in 2010 and 2011, along with their draft slot. In the 8 or 9 years since they were drafted, only two of these guys have ever been in the top ten quarterbacks on a particular year - Cam Newton did it twice, never ranking higher than 7th, and Andy Dalton somehow managed a 4th-ranked year once, never to sniff it again. That's a lot of draft capital to be spent for no dominating seasons.
1 Cam Newton Panthers
1 Sam Bradford Rams
8 Jake Locker Titans
10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars
12 Christian Ponder Vikings
25 Tim Tebow Broncos
35 Andy Dalton Bengals
36 Colin Kaepernick 49ers
48 Jimmy Clausen Panthers
74 Ryan Mallett Patriots
85 Colt McCoy Browns
122 Mike Kafka Eagles
135 Ricky Stanzi Chiefs
152 T.J. Yates Texans
155 John Skelton Cardinals
160 Nathan Enderle Bears
168 Jonathan Crompton Chargers
176 Rusty Smith Titans
180 Tyrod Taylor Ravens
181 Dan LeFevour Bears
199 Joe Webb Vikings
204 Tony Pike Panthers
208 Greg McElroy Jets
209 Levi Brown Bills
239 Sean Canfield Saints
250 Zac Robinson Patriots
I remember Chief Fan gushing about Ponder, Locker, and Clausen. Good times. [Reply]
I know you're only kidding, kinda/sorta, but there are others who believe this, and someday he WILL hit that wall (or fall off that cliff, you prefer -- probably LITERALLY is the actual preference, but:
1. Gronk hurt most of the year (played most games but gutted through injuries).
2. Edelman suspended first four games
3. Edelman returning off an ACL that knocked him out last year
4. Lost Amendola, who could be clutch
5. No backup TE receiving threat.
All are reasons -- in part -- for why Brady's performance could be down. Or, of course, his decline has begun, which is also entirely possible. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
I added the 2010 and 2011 data in the enclosed file, and today we'll take a look at the quarterbacks from those draft classes. It almost makes feel better about Matt Cassel.
Does your formula/methodology account for productivity by the QB in the running game? Obviously, Cam's impact is more than just in his passing yardage. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Amnorix:
Does your formula/methodology account for productivity by the QB in the running game? Obviously, Cam's impact is more than just in his passing yardage.
Unfortunately, no. The data grab didn't include that, and it would have been a hassle to deal with it. Also, not including it will make John Elway look worse, so I liked that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Unfortunately, no. The data grab didn't include that, and it would have been a hassle to deal with it. Also, not including it will make John Elway look worse, so I liked that.
Yeah, a few guys -- Cam, Rodgers, Vick, Randall Cunningham (seriously underrated), Russell Wilson, Daunte Culpepper, made a serious and significant impact on games with their legs. Hard to capture/quantify that though. That threat does help the offense in a number of ways which don't show on the QB's stat sheet.
A number of teams stocked up on quarterbacks before the great draft drought in the late 2000s. But they started out rather odd. In the first three years of these classes, here are the guys who had top-ten seasons:
Phillip Rivers (2)
Eli Manning (2)
Aaron Rodgers (1)
Ben Roethlisberger (1)
Matt Cassel (1)
Derek Anderson (1)
J.P. Losman (1)
Some of those guys built on their early success, and others didn't.
Here's everyone who was drafted.
1 Alex Smith 49ers Utah
1 Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi
4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State
11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH)
22 J.P. Losman Bills Tulane
24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California
25 Jason Campbell Redskins Auburn
67 Charlie Frye Browns Akron
69 Andrew Walter Raiders Arizona State
85 David Greene Seahawks Georgia
90 Matt Schaub Falcons Virginia
106 Kyle Orton Bears Purdue
106 Luke McCown Browns Louisiana Tech
121 Stefan Lefors Panthers Louisville
145 Dan Orlovsky Lions Connecticut
148 Craig Krenzel Bears Ohio State
152 Adrian McPherson Saints Florida State
185 Andy Hall Eagles Delaware
187 Josh Harris Ravens Bowling Green
193 Jim Sorgi Colts Wisconsin
201 Jeff Smoker Rams Michigan State
202 John Navarre Cardinals Michigan
213 Derek Anderson Ravens Oregon State
217 Cody Pickett 49ers Washington
218 Casey Bramlet Bengals Wyoming
225 Matt Mauck Broncos Louisiana State
229 James Kilian Chiefs Tulsa
230 Matt Cassel Patriots USC
248 B.J. Symons Texans Texas Tech
250 Ryan Fitzpatrick Rams Harvard
250 Bradlee Van Pelt Broncos Colorado State
I've added 2002 and 2003 now. I thought that a few one-year wonders would sneak into the top ten, but Carson Palmer is the only guy out of both years to ever make the top ten. He had four years in the top ten, and when he had a good year it was usually really good. It seems like there should've been a chance for him to take a team all the way, but it never happened.
The rest of the dudes topped out at meh.
2003 1 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals USC
2 1 7 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall
3 1 19 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California
4 1 22 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida
5 3 24 88 Dave Ragone Texans Louisville
6 3 33 97 Chris Simms Buccaneers Texas
7 4 13 110 Seneca Wallace Seahawks Iowa State
8 5 28 163 Brian St. Pierre Steelers Boston College
9 6 19 192 Drew Henson Texans Michigan
10 6 27 200 Brooks Bollinger Jets Wisconsin
11 6 28 201 Kliff Kingsbury Patriots Texas Tech
12 7 18 232 Gibran Hamdan Redskins Indiana
13 7 27 241 Ken Dorsey 49ers Miami (FL)
2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane
4 3 16 81 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State
5 4 10 108 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina
6 4 19 117 Rohan Davey Patriots Louisiana State
7 5 2 137 Randy Fasani Panthers Stanford
8 5 23 158 Kurt Kittner Falcons Illinois
9 5 28 163 Brandon Doman 49ers Brigham Young
10 5 29 164 Craig Nall Packers Northwestern State (LA)
11 6 14 186 J.T. O'Sullivan Saints California-Davis
12 6 33 205 Steve Bellisari Rams Ohio State
13 7 5 216 Seth Burford Chargers Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
14 7 21 232 Jeff Kelly Seahawks Southern Mississippi
15 7 24 235 Ronald Curry Raiders North Carolina
16 7 25 236 Wes Pate Ravens Stephen F. Austin
In 2001, we had the following players drafted. It was a good year for scraping low, and we had a couple of strong ones drafted early, too.
Interestingly, Michael Vick never made the top ten. Chad Pennington and Marc Bulger snuck in a few times. But the big battle is Brees versus Brady.
Brees has been a top-ten QB in 15 years. That's darn impressive. Among those, 12 have been top-five and he's been the #1 QB three times.
Brady, on the other hand, has been a top-ten QB in 15 years. Among those, 10 were top-five and he's been the #1 QB four times.
Head to head, Drew Brees has been ranked higher than Tom Brady ten times, and Brady has been higher than Brees seven times. So Brees is the better quarterback.
1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech
18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall
32 Drew Brees Chargers Purdue
53 Quincy Carter Cowboys Georgia
59 Marques Tuiasosopo Raiders Washington
65 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers Hofstra
75 Chris Redman Ravens Louisville
106 Chris Weinke Panthers Florida State
109 Sage Rosenfels Redskins Iowa State
125 Jesse Palmer Giants Florida
149 Mike McMahon Lions Rutgers
155 A.J. Feeley Eagles Oregon
163 Tee Martin Steelers Tennessee
168 Marc Bulger Saints West Virginia
172 Josh Booty Seahawks Louisiana State
177 Josh Heupel Dolphins Oklahoma
183 Spergon Wynn Browns Southwest Texas State
199 Tom Brady Patriots Michigan
202 Todd Husak Redskins Stanford
205 JaJuan Seider Chargers Florida A&M
212 Tim Rattay 49ers Louisiana Tech
214 Jarious Jackson Broncos Notre Dame
234 Joe Hamilton Buccaneers Georgia Tech
