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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
cdcox 09:42 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Then the R0 isn't truly below 1 in those areas.
This is not correct. You can still have new cases when the R0 is below 1, but the number of new cases will decrease over time.

Let's say R0 is 0.8 and there are 100 people who have the disease. For simplicity we'll also assume that germination time for the disease is a week.


100 people will pass it to 80 the following week.
The 80 people will pass it to 64 the following week.
The 64 will pass it to 51 the following week and so on until there are no new cases several weeks down the road.

In comparison if R0 is 1.2 then

100 people will pass it to 120 the following week.
120 people will pass it to 144 the following week.
144 people will pass it to 173 the following week and so on. The number of new cases will grow without bounds until you start running out of people to infect.
[Reply]
TinyEvel 10:43 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Here's a nice scoreboard of vaccines in development.

I hate to say this, but I'm not sure that I trust a Chinese-developed vaccine. I'm hoping one of the American or European countries gets there first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-to-a-vaccine
Every other country the vaccine will be free. In the US it will probably be $1,000
[Reply]
PAChiefsGuy 01:28 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Here's a nice scoreboard of vaccines in development.

I hate to say this, but I'm not sure that I trust a Chinese-developed vaccine. I'm hoping one of the American or European countries gets there first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-to-a-vaccine
I'm sure the vaccine no matter what country it comes from will be fine to use. They are going to test the hell out of it especially if it comes from China.
[Reply]
Donger 07:04 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by cdcox:
This is not correct. You can still have new cases when the R0 is below 1, but the number of new cases will decrease over time.

Let's say R0 is 0.8 and there are 100 people who have the disease. For simplicity we'll also assume that germination time for the disease is a week.


100 people will pass it to 80 the following week.
The 80 people will pass it to 64 the following week.
The 64 will pass it to 51 the following week and so on until there are no new cases several weeks down the road.

In comparison if R0 is 1.2 then

100 people will pass it to 120 the following week.
120 people will pass it to 144 the following week.
144 people will pass it to 173 the following week and so on. The number of new cases will grow without bounds until you start running out of people to infect.
I stand corrected. Thank you.
[Reply]
F150 08:24 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by TinyEvel:
Every other country the vaccine will be free. In the US it will probably be $1,000

Probably not true at all
[Reply]
Mr_Tomahawk 08:24 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Here's a nice scoreboard of vaccines in development.

I hate to say this, but I'm not sure that I trust a Chinese-developed vaccine. I'm hoping one of the American or European countries gets there first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-to-a-vaccine

So, how long does Phase 3 takes?

Seems like the first 2 phases would take a couple months each, all things considered.
[Reply]
Bob Dole 08:33 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Here's a nice scoreboard of vaccines in development.

I hate to say this, but I'm not sure that I trust a Chinese-developed vaccine. I'm hoping one of the American or European countries gets there first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-to-a-vaccine
China was leading the research on this shit before it all started.
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 08:33 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk:
So, how long does Phase 3 takes?

Seems like the first 2 phases would take a couple months each, all things considered.
Normally, years, (as do Phase I and II), but this is not normal.
[Reply]
O.city 09:04 AM 07-12-2020
So they’re now thinking 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

Makes me wonder, do we know if influenza ever has asymptomatic cases? Not trying to be a flu bro, or whatever, just curious. I’m hopeful this whole ordeal will open our eyes to a lot of infectious diseases and how we can more combat them
[Reply]
Donger 09:55 AM 07-12-2020
15,300 new cases in Florida
[Reply]
BigBeauford 10:01 AM 07-12-2020

Florida reports a staggering 15,300 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours.

This is the highest single-day increase any state has ever reported since the pandemic began.

— Jesse Rodriguez (@JesseRodriguez) July 12, 2020

[Reply]
ChiliConCarnage 10:04 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
15,300 new cases in Florida
I saw that. Low deaths so far. Miami-Dade was 3600 by itself. Weekend numbers for cases don't seem to be coming in low like had been typical
[Reply]
Donger 10:08 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage:
I saw that. Low deaths so far. Miami-Dade was 3600 by itself. Weekend numbers for cases don't seem to be coming in low like had been typical
Their deaths have spiked over the last week, unfortunately.
[Reply]
Donger 10:15 AM 07-12-2020
Florida has a positivity of 20% New York is 1%
[Reply]
Bearcat 10:22 AM 07-12-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
So they’re now thinking 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

Makes me wonder, do we know if influenza ever has asymptomatic cases? Not trying to be a flu bro, or whatever, just curious. I’m hopeful this whole ordeal will open our eyes to a lot of infectious diseases and how we can more combat them
I've read they think influenza could be asymptomatic in 60-70% of cases, give or take, and I believe that was the original ballpark of Covid, with I'm sure some assumptions of similarity in that regard.... I hadn't known that a while back, so at one time my reasoning for not getting a flu shot was that I never got/get the flu.
[Reply]
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