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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Happy Thanksgiving Mock (11/22)
kccrow 08:36 PM 11-22-2018
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone. While you're eating your pumpkin pie, I present you this to chew on...

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.097 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. If the NFL carries through with an approximate 6% increase in the cap, then that base will be $2.02 million, which was used in the 2019 cap estimate.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $85.0m contract extension with $42.5m in guarantees, $36.0m guaranteed at signing, $17.5m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.483 2020: 15.75 2021: 16.75 2022: 16.75 2023: 16.50 2024: 16.75

2019 Cap Effect (includes Hill PPE): +$8.8m

Restructures
SS Eric Berry: Agrees to convert $8.0m of base salary in 2019 to a signing bonus, freeing up $6.0m in cap space for 2019. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 10.50 2020: 15.50 2021: 18.00 2022: 16.00
Notes: Berry has offseason surgery to repair the Haglund's deformity in his heel and will rehab throughout the summer. We actually see him play before December in 2019!

2019 Cap Effect: -$6.0m

Tags/Tenders

ED Dee Ford: Franchise Tag estimated $15.4m
Notes: Despite the fact that Ford has grown on me, I'd look to replace him long-term and franchise him for the short-term. This team has some large contracts to absorb over the coming years and 2 edge rushers on $100m deals just isn't a good idea.
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m
OC Austin Reiter: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
TE Alex Ellis: ERFA Tender estimated $645k + $30k bonus

2019 Cap Effect: +$22.55m

Free Agent Signings

FS Tre Boston (ARZ): Boston has been as productive as many of the lucrative players who's names get tossed about, such as Eric Reid and Earl Thomas. Boston took a much cheaper contract than Reid in 2018 and could come at a decent savings. He should be a guy on Veach's radar.
4 years/$31.0m with $12.5m guaranteed at signing, $8.0m signing bonus and another $5.0m guaranteed if on the roster the 5th day of the 2020 league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 7.00 2020: 7.50 2021: 8.00 2020: 8.50

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

CB E.J. Gaines (CLE): A native of Lee's Summit, Gaines may want to return home. Gaines is a solid CB but has an injury history. He'd be best as a slot CB where he wouldn't be on the field all the time and could replace Nelson. He should come relatively cheap given that he has missed some games this year after signing a 1 year deal for $4m in Cleveland.
3 years/$10m with $4.0m guaranteed and $2.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.70 2020: 3.30 2021: 4.00

2019 Cap Effect: +$11.70m

Free Agent Re-Signings

RB Spencer Ware: Ware is just a solid all-around back and that makes it difficult to get rid of him. Once he was healthy, Reid immediately turned to him as Hunt's primary backup and he's been nothing but a team player. I think he's brought back on a friendly deal.
2 year/$3.0m with $500k roster bonuses in each year. Estimated Cap Hits: 2019: $1.40 2020: 1.60

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

2019 Cap Effect: +$1.40m

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey - Bailey has definitely ran too hot and cold since receiving his deal and his performance against the run has dropped considerably. It's time to move on.
FB Anthony Sherman - Sherman is probably the best pure fullback in the NFL and he's excellent on special teams, but he's not especially worth tying up a couple million per year on. The league is moving to more of an H-back roll at the position where receiving is a big deal. Sherman is a good receiver, but he's a tank going down the field. I look for him to move on.
CB Orlando Scandrick - Scandrick has been a nice stop-gap, but certainly not the answer long-term and his lapses can be atrocious. If he can be brought back on the cheap, I'd re-sign him but it'd have to be cheap.
TE Demetrius Harris - He never developed on his last contract enough to bother retaining him and his hands are stone. Time to move on.
FS Josh Shaw - Hasn't really been on the field much to flash anything. Could be a vet min re-signing but I'm not banking on it.
RB Damien Williams - Doesn't have any noteworthy production to bother bringing back.
OC Mitch Morse - Too many concussions and too much time in the tub. He's great when he's on the field but you can't give the guy a contract with that history.
FS Ron Parker - He was dumped last year for good reason but brought back to continue his garbage play. The team really needs a much better solution long-term.
WR De'Anthony Thomas - A nice kick return option if he's healthy, but he's always missing time. It's time to move on and find a healthier alternative.
DE Jarvis Jenkins - Doesn't provide much and is getting long in the tooth. See ya.
OLB Frank Zombo - See above. Wouldn't be here if not for injury.
CB Steven Nelson - Will more than likely cost more than he's worth to retain, similar to Albert Wilson last year. Someone will pay this kid $7-8m per on a nice deal but that team shouldn't be the Chiefs.
OLB Nate Orchard - Garbage.
ILB Terrence Smith - Definitely has shown nothing to make me think the Chiefs should retain him for any reason, and certainly not at a $2m tender. Adios amigo.
WR Chris Conley - The problem I have with Chris Conley is not his talent, it's that the Chiefs have some serious money tied up in the position and you start looking at what Buehler talks about in terms of salary per units of production and you have a hard time fitting Conley in. He's a solid receiver that's going to catch the balls he's thrown but when he gives you 1 catch a game most of the time then you gotta tell yourself you can find that production from a really cheap guy.

Draft

Estimated Rookie Pool: $6.46m
2019 Cap Effect: +$2.50m

1. CB Kris Boyd, Texas (6'0" 195)
Has good size, solid backpedal and transitional footwork, and gets his hands on an insane amount of footballs. Has played alot of off-man and press at Texas. The Chiefs absolutely have to address the CB position early in the draft.
2. DE Jaylon Ferguson, Lousiana Tech (6'5" 255)
Solid overall defensive end with good getoff, and solid hold at the point against the run. Needs to gain strength, especially in his upper body. Future replacement for Dee Ford.
2. DT Gerald Willis III, Miami (6'3" 290)
Great initial burst and overall quickness. Comes with a history of off-field family issues and that will keep him out of early consideration but could be a steal. Willis is that type that, when going forward, wreaks havoc and the Chiefs could use a guy like that consistently opposite Jones.
3. WR Andy Isabella, UMass (5'9" 185)
Insane burst off the line, open field quickness and agility, and overall top-end speed (reportedly 4.3's). Literally uncoverable at times. Torched very good defensive backs, including Georgia's DeAndre Baker. A prototypical NFL slot receiver that could step right in and replace D'Anthony Thomas and Chris Conley.
5. DT Kingsley Keke, Texas A&M (6'4" 305)
Another defensive lineman with good initial burst and quickness that can disrupt the LOS. The Chiefs will have to double-dip at DE whether it be in the draft or a combination of that and FA.
6. LB Ulysees Gilbert III, Akron (6'0" 225)
Off-ball, weakside linebacker with outstanding range and speed. Excellent coverage linebacker. If the Chiefs don't go after a top-tier starter, they need to at least fill in the depth and special teams. I'll walk along with Direkshun here and assume the Chiefs don't go LB early.
7. OL Sean Rawlings, Ole Miss (6'5" 295)
Athletic offensive lineman with experience at OT and C, but looks best inside. He'll need to get stronger at the pro level.

Total Estimated Remaining Cap Space: $5.65m

Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Kareem Hunt, Darrel Williams, Spencer Ware
FB:
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Alex Ellis, Deon Yelder, David Wells
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Andy Isabella, Byron Pringle, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Cameron Erving, Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Sean Rawlings, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Gerald Willis III, Kingsley Keke, Justin Hamilton, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams
OLB: Justin Houston, Dee Ford, Breeland Speaks, Jaylon Ferguson, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
ILB: Anthony Hitchens, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland, Ulysees Gilbert III
CB: Kris Boyd, Kendall Fuller, E.J. Gaines, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
FS: Tre Boston, Jordan Lucas, Eric Murray
SS: Eric Berry, Daniel Sorensen, Armani Watts
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 02:08 PM 11-27-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Have you honestly watched him play the past two seasons? One dimensional? Kid has been one of the top 3 FSs in the league the past two years. I'm not sure how you can claim this, at all really.
Carolina cut him because he was an indifferent tackler. His market was so robust he took essentially the veterans minimum just to find a job in SD. He had a good season and was among my favored safety targets but because I felt he was a viable coverage safety and a nice replacement for what Parker was supposed to be.

And even after SD let him go, he had to take deal that gives him about 1/4 of a relatively replaceable guy like Jaquiski Tartt was able to get. Special teamers like Nate Ebner were getting better contracts; washed up veterans like Michael Thomas were getting better deals. Former undrafted FAs who aren't even starters and are on the way out of the league like Rontez Miles were getting better offers.

The market clearly didn't value the guy and there's a reason for that. He's a nice player but you're talking about making him one of the highest paid safeties in the league. No way - that's way high.

Target him, sure. See if 2/$10 gets it done. 4/31, even knowing the final year is almost certainly fluff, ends up being 3/$23 under your structure and that's just not a level I'm willing to go to. If for no other reason than the safety market will probably do the same thing next year. There's always a guy who's market doesn't come together; a Damarious Randall type. Find one of those who you can get on a 2 year deal; don't pay a guy who will have then been let go by 3 different teams to a long-term deal at a fairly significant figure.
[Reply]
kccrow 06:35 PM 11-27-2018
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Carolina cut him because he was an indifferent tackler. His market was so robust he took essentially the veterans minimum just to find a job in SD. He had a good season and was among my favored safety targets but because I felt he was a viable coverage safety and a nice replacement for what Parker was supposed to be.

And even after SD let him go, he had to take deal that gives him about 1/4 of a relatively replaceable guy like Jaquiski Tartt was able to get. Special teamers like Nate Ebner were getting better contracts; washed up veterans like Michael Thomas were getting better deals. Former undrafted FAs who aren't even starters and are on the way out of the league like Rontez Miles were getting better offers.

The market clearly didn't value the guy and there's a reason for that. He's a nice player but you're talking about making him one of the highest paid safeties in the league. No way - that's way high.

Target him, sure. See if 2/$10 gets it done. 4/31, even knowing the final year is almost certainly fluff, ends up being 3/$23 under your structure and that's just not a level I'm willing to go to. If for no other reason than the safety market will probably do the same thing next year. There's always a guy who's market doesn't come together; a Damarious Randall type. Find one of those who you can get on a 2 year deal; don't pay a guy who will have then been let go by 3 different teams to a long-term deal at a fairly significant figure.
The market hasn't valued safeties much for the past couple of seasons, but I'm willing to bet it flares up again after this season. Guys that can cover and play single high, which he's very good at, are a premium. Basing a guy's play ability on the market conditions is silly. Say he's not going to get that kind of contract because of the market and I might agree. You said he sucks dick, basically, and that simply isn't true. He's not one-dimensional and he's an asset to the Cards. Hell, their media outlets were pissing and moaning when he went out with a short-term injury.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 11:54 PM 11-27-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
The market hasn't valued safeties much for the past couple of seasons, but I'm willing to bet it flares up again after this season. Guys that can cover and play single high, which he's very good at, are a premium. Basing a guy's play ability on the market conditions is silly. Say he's not going to get that kind of contract because of the market and I might agree. You said he sucks dick, basically, and that simply isn't true. He's not one-dimensional and he's an asset to the Cards. Hell, their media outlets were pissing and moaning when he went out with a short-term injury.
I didn't say he sucks dick. At all.

I said he's one dimensional. Hes a single high coverage safety. I defended 'Peak Parker' for years from guys who said he sucked because he couldn't tackle well. That wasn't his primary function. He played single high well and that made him valuable.

But he was absolutely one dimensional. Tre Boston is the same kind of player Parker was before his wheels came off; valuable but flawed.

I'm not giving that kind of money to a coverage safety.
[Reply]
ntexascardfan 12:06 PM 12-02-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I like Oruwariye as well but I do still question his speed. His length seems to bail him out alot at the college level.

I'm curious for more from you about Boyd. I never got the sense that he was anywhere near as immature as Peters. I know he has some issues but I'd love to know if there's more that I'm not seeing there. He is aggressive, but he seems to constantly get better. I don't watch him every single game though like you. Is it aggressiveness getting him torched at times or is it failure to recognize double-moves, etc? One is learning the game better and the other is learning self-control. Do you perceive him as one that can do either? Give me more man.

If you watched the Big XII championship game yesterday I think you got Boyd in a nutshell.

He shuts down average receivers, but has been eaten alive all season by NFL types.

I think a better adjective than aggressive would be reckless. He's an athletic player who will give you great plays, but a lot of bonehead mixed in. He doesn't have a high enough football IQ and instinct to be worthy of a first round pick.
[Reply]
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