Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
That was a prime year for Gyorko and the first year of the 'exit' period of Longoria's prime as well as another data point establishing an increasingly poor trend.
Moreover, Gyorko demonstrated a new skill - premier defense at 3b. That's enormous and suggests a new floor for him.
Where Longoria is an improvement on Gyorko is definitely durability. But the Cardinals have a backup plan for Gyorko anyway and that's the Matt Carpenter/Jose Martinez plan. You essentially shell-game Martinez for Gyorko through a defensive shift if Gyorko gets hurt.
Give Jedd 400 ABs and I think he gives you 2.5 wins. Give Jose the other 200 and I think he gives you 1-1.5. That combination of Gyorko and Martinez is worth 3.5-4.5 wins; maybe a little more fudge either direction given the volatility in Martinez's projections.
But there's no need - none at all - for the Cardinals to consider Evan Longoria. He'd be an expensive and completely unnecessary addition, IMO.
If Machado and Donalson are out, I would rather stick with Jedd and see what we can get out of a full season of him at 3B. His average and strikeouts don't bother me, I just wish he had better patience. His OBP did spike to .343 last year, so maybe he can build on that because if he could get to .360 or better his power would make him a valuable fit. When he is sub .300 getting on base and striking out it just leaves us too vulnerable to his streaks (something we have had in spades with Grichuk as well). [Reply]
Taking just their WAR from last year at each position the projected starters as they stand now (just positional players)
Cards 26.9 total (with Ozuna now in left)
Cubs 25.6 total (with Ian Happ in lineup), 25.1 (with Zobrist in lineup), 23.8 (with Schwarber in lineup). [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yeah but a full season from Schwarber and Contreras plus a little growth from their youth had them around 28-30 in my eyes.
Regression from Dejong, Pham and Ozuna should be expected as well. Not a ton, but a little. I have them at 25 or so as presently constructed.
So there's still a pretty good gap there, IMO.
Nothing Manny Machado wouldn't fix...
Yep, you can't go on one year and a return of 6 or 7 WAR in a Machado would put us over the top (at least at the everyday positions). I think Wong could be undervalued going into this year and who knows what Carpenter might be with a little more thump around him.
Just please stay the hell away from Longoria. That would just piss me off, especially at the price we would pay in what at least lately looks like a lateral move talent wise. [Reply]
I don't like the idea of Swapping new Jedd for old Longo, If they still want to make a move outside of Machado ship Carp off for a legit bullpen arm. [Reply]
So they won't trade away their top pitching prospects, a position they can obviously find and develop, for a young superstar 3rd baseman, a position they can't find.
I'm guessing we will hear it's because the likelihood that he'll walk next year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
So they won't trade away their top pitching prospects, a position they can obviously find and develop, for a young superstar 3rd baseman, a position they can't find.
I'm guessing we will hear it's because the likelihood that he'll walk next year.
I’d be willing to part with 1 for a 1 year rental. But if they want both I’d want him to sign an extension. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
So they won't trade away their top pitching prospects, a position they can obviously find and develop, for a young superstar 3rd baseman, a position they can't find.
I'm guessing we will hear it's because the likelihood that he'll walk next year.
No, it's worse than that.
For a young superstar shortstop.
That's where people have this sideways. Sure, Manny Machado plays an excellent 3b because why not? They have a credible defensive SS and have for years.
But you plug Manny in at SS and he'd still be among the 5-10 best defensive shortstops in the game. Dude has incredible hands and a weapons-grade arm. His range to his left would probably be a little iffy because he's gotten big but he can play deep enough with his arm that he could circle around most plays or make them going backwards in the hole and still be just fine.
And yeah, baseball's just loaded with 25 year old Hall of Fame caliber shortstops...