That dude claimed Mahomes will sign with the Cowboys :-)
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Few truly excellent players are willing to play on the rookie option year anymore. Not coming off strong seasons anyway.

You usually see a holdout at the very least. But where it does help you is at the negotiating table, especially when it's a late 1st round pick who would only have a 5th year option value of about $7.6 million next season vs. the $15.5 million or so he'd see under the tag.

So on a potential 5 year deal, it gives you nearly $8 million in additional leverage that can reduce that overall AAV by a couple million depending on structure.

It's not insignificant but it's also not iron-clad.

I just think you have to operate in a 'general rule' arena here and in general, I'd rather have that option than not. Now if you're arguing the other side you point out that only 3 of those options got picked up from pick 20 through 32 that year, including a dude we all know and who may struggle to stay in the league for another couple years in Darron Lee.

But if you trust your front office to not fumble first round picks, even late first rounders, you should really put much higher value on staying in the 1st round than many people 'round these parts do.
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The problem with it generally though is that you run into the same issues you do with the franchise tag at times. Guys hold out, don't show up etc.

They've pretty much got themselves into a place where they're gonna have to sign him, but damn, money gonna get tight.
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FWIW Ehinger actually showed promise his rookie year until his knee got destroyed. That ruined his career unfortunately. An ACL, MCL and additional meniscus injury is devastating. That kind of injury is permanent and he reimbursed his knee in Dallas.

But I agree with the philosophy of arming yourself with as many shots as possible, especially if you know a guy you love is gonna be there a few spots down.

I think the Seahawks have proven this strategy is best if you believe in your GM.
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The Seahawks had a 5 year run or so of getting god-awful results from that strategy before they started yielded more solid dividends over the last 2-3 seasons. The Patriots also get a ton of pub for doing it but oftentimes their returns have been shite.

What I think I've noticed when looking into stuff like this in the past is that teams will kinda strikeout on it more years than they don't. And then every few years they'll just have a draft that they had a particularly good feel for and in THAT draft they'll have a trade down that yields significant returns and it makes people forget about the years that sandwiched it where they gave away significant draft capital to little benefit.

I think you ultimately have to have a real honest conversation with yourself and your staff if you're gonna do that sort of thing. "Gents, do we think we know how good these guys are, or do we actually know?" I have no doubt that there are drafts where scouting departments put on a brave face but deep down they know that, while they did everything they could, they just don't have as good a feel for this draft as some other years.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm betting that if you got Veach drunk he'd tell you "yeah, going into that 2018 draft, we felt like we were still grasping here and there....". And that kind of draft may well happen again - there's no silver bullet to figuring this damn thing out. They had a great draft in 2019 and I'm betting they went into that draft pretty sure they would. But it's important for these guys to be honest with themselves sometimes, IMO.
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The 1st round bye is still in reach
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I think the change in defensive staff played the biggest role in all of this. Tanoh was wasted playing OLB and while Speaks is on Veach, he wasn’t used properly either. I know we all think Speaks is done, but they’ll bring him back next year to see if they can salvage that pick.

Having a good staff to help your GM makes such a big difference. Veach said he asked Spags for a grocery list and guys like Damien Wilson, Ogbah, etc.

I would imagine the system plays a large part as well. I mean Andy has a great system and an eye for talent. It’s no surprise that Hardman is doing well bc of Andy’s system and his eye for offensive weapons dating back to Philly.

I think we have some of that on the defensive side now. And thank Christ for that.
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That’s a SWEETASS shot, it’d make a helluva avatar
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It's whats been missing for waaaay too long.

I love it.
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Chris Jones was the primary factor in FOUR failed 3rd downs for the Patriots.

This is why you pay the man. Every play there's a chance he wrecks it for the offense regardless of what else happens. pic.twitter.com/lrQqbYxANf

— Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) December 9, 2019

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he's a beast and seems like a good leader, ya he's not the greatest vs the run but he makes plays every game. Wish we paid him instead of you know who and kept that 1st.
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Yup, pay that man and build the defense around him
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When it comes to re-signing Jones (or not), it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation IMO.

As long as the Chiefs make good use of the resources they go with, I won’t be mad. More years of prime Jones? Awesome, I’ll pay for that. More cap space and draft picks via trade that turn into cheap, good players? I’ll take that too.

It’s a win/lose scenario but I won’t bitch much either way I don’t think as long as the parameters of the deal make sense.
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I think Chris Jones is more valuable than picks or cap space because he's a known quantity and he's only going to get better.

Jones, Clark, and Honey Badger are our defense's identity with a lot of young talent around them.

Pay Jones.
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All in
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