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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
MahomesMagic 03:43 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
NY locked down on March 22 when the state was seeing about 1,500 new cases/day.
Yes. And that was way too late as the number of actual cases was far higher than what we were detecting.
[Reply]
Donger 03:45 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Yes. And that was way too late as the number of actual cases was far higher than what we were detecting.
Huh? Too late? You claimed this:

I am in NY and the only way you can stop the virus is very early before it gets going.

New York, after that initial few weeks, has done a great job in stomping this bug so far.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 03:50 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Huh? Too late? You claimed this:

I am in NY and the only way you can stop the virus is very early before it gets going.

New York, after that initial few weeks, has done a great job in stomping this bug so far.
Yes, we did a great job of having no one susceptible left to take out as the virus had its way here.

The curve naturally goes up, peaks, then goes down. NY graph looks the same as the UK or Sweden.
[Reply]
Donger 03:56 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Yes, we did a great job of having no one susceptible left to take out as the virus had its way here.

The curve naturally goes up, peaks, then goes down. NY graph looks the same as the UK or Sweden.
No, it doesn't.

Sweden is finally driving down cases. Want to guess why?
Attached: NY.jpg (50.1 KB) Sweden.jpg (55.0 KB) 
[Reply]
Lprechaun 04:05 PM 07-17-2020
As bad as the numbers seem to be down here it sure doesnt seem like anyone cares. I still see barely half the people wearing masks. People call my wifes salon and cuss her out because they require a mask and they dont want to wear it.
Im getting to the point where I wear a mask for others but I simply dont sweat the numbers. If I get it I get it.
People have to work, and if people dont take it upon themselves to wear masks than I guess we need to just let it run its course right?
I just dont see any other way at this point. If you think people will run out and get the vaccine in droves you are kidding yourself.
Some will for sure, Ive asked everyone I know if they will get it and its a resounding HELL NO
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 04:05 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
No, it doesn't.

Sweden is finally driving down cases. Want to guess why?
I don't care about cases. I concur with professor Gupta of Oxford that cases are a function of surveillance and are therefore a poor measure for judging how the virus is acting upon a population.

Lay out the death charts averaged out weekly and NY and Sweden look exactly the same.


Cases chart US: (This one uses current CDC estimate of .65 IFR (even though I think that is far too high). Plugging in with deaths and lag we find the true cases vs reported.

https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/...513920/photo/1
[Reply]
Donger 04:10 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
I don't care about cases. I concur with professor Gupta of Oxford that cases are a function of surveillance and are therefore a poor measure for judging how the virus is acting upon a population.

Lay out the death charts averaged out weekly and NY and Sweden look exactly the same.
Of course you don't and of course you do. You're a herder, right?
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 04:20 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Of course you don't and of course you do. You're a herder, right?
Until there is a vaccine population resistance or immunity is the only thing that works. It is what happened in NY. That's how we beat it here.
[Reply]
Donger 04:24 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Until there is a vaccine population resistance or immunity is the only thing that works. It is what happened in NY. That's how we beat it here.
No, there is no conclusive or convincing evidence that NY experienced herd immunity and that led to their results, let alone in under a month.

As a nation, we saw a decrease in new case growth just with mitigation efforts. And, it's just common sense. This thing is spread by humans.

Do you acknowledge that places that opened up without seeing new case declines are seeing increases?
[Reply]
TLO 04:28 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Do you acknowledge that places that opened up without seeing new case declines are seeing increases?
A small sample size here - but I can say that in my county of about 85,000 people we opened as cases were rising and have seen a decline since then.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 04:30 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
No, there is no conclusive or convincing evidence that NY experienced herd immunity and that led to their results, let alone in under a month.

As a nation, we saw a decrease in new case growth just with mitigation efforts. And, it's just common sense. This thing is spread by humans.

Do you acknowledge that places that opened up without seeing new case declines are seeing increases?

Detected cases does not equal actual cases. We brought the overall cases down by population resistance. It is pure hubris to believe we can now control nature to the degree that you think we can. We don't stop the common cold or flu. We have some vaccines for flu that we guess on. Sometimes we are right. Sometimes we are wrong.

Yes, if you actually lock people down and then let them resume life and ramp up testing you will detect more cases. No surprise.
[Reply]
Donger 04:35 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Detected cases does not equal actual cases. We brought the overall cases down by population resistance. It is pure hubris to believe we can now control nature to the degree that you think we can. We don't stop the common cold or flu. We have some vaccines for flu that we guess on. Sometimes we are right. Sometimes we are wrong.

Yes, if you actually lock people down and then let them resume life and ramp up testing you will detect more cases. No surprise.
Positive tests equal actual cases.

Good, I'm glad that you acknowledge that. If you look at the amount and increase of testing, you will see that new case growth doesn't equal it. Not to mention positivity.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 04:45 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Positive tests equal actual cases.

Good, I'm glad that you acknowledge that. If you look at the amount and increase of testing, you will see that new case growth doesn't equal it. Not to mention positivity.
What you are not following is that the detected cases does not actually tell us how many people have it.

I have never felt sick and have never been tested. Do I have it now? Who knows.
[Reply]
petegz28 04:53 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
What you are not following is that the detected cases does not actually tell us how many people have it.

I have never felt sick and have never been tested. Do I have it now? Who knows.
This is why I have ?onger on ignore. He plays these little games. Everyone knew what you mean by "detected cases aren't actual cases" but he must persist in his pedantic ways.
[Reply]
DaneMcCloud 04:58 PM 07-17-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
What you are not following is that the detected cases does not actually tell us how many people have it.

I have never felt sick and have never been tested. Do I have it now? Who knows.
This is why people have been encouraged to get tested, even if they don't have any symptoms.

Hell, my wife got tested again today because she's taken the kids to the beach a few times this week, even though she doesn't have any symptoms.

Creating data points is very helpful to the doctors and scientists that are studying this virus.
[Reply]
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