Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by SupDock:
This is a post I made in DC about H1N1 vs Covid-19. Selfishly I'm going to repost it for visibility, as we are talking about how it's not widespread yet. The interesting thing is how under-reported deaths and cases were of H1N1 by WHO and the CDC
The initial report was 20k deaths by the WHO, now we think it was 200k plus.
USA reported 4k deaths in the first 6 months of the virus.
................................
That's not even comparable.*
The first H1N1 case was April 15th. Keep in mind that this disease was first found in the USA, not another country.*
By June 19th ( 2 months later), there were cases in 50 states
Towards the end of June we had 1 million US cases estimated.*
In October H1N1 resurged, and the CDC issued a report estimating 4000 people had died by that point in the USA
Originally Posted by SupDock:
You said that the death rate for people under 40 was the same as the flu (you didn't specify that you were referring to a bad flu season) which isn't true.
That was a TOTALLY DIFFERENT POST FROM TWO FUCKING DAYS AGO. That is not what Hamas was replying to. AT ALL. How many times does this need to be pointed out.
And yes the death rate for those <40 (according to that report) is damn close to .1%, like I said it may be as high as .12% but I'd have to check since it isn't broken down like that. <60 is .145% so it stands to reason that it is pretty close to .1% for <40.
Originally Posted by SupDock:
Then you changed the age to 50 and specified "bad flu" which still isn't true, and isn't what the article said.
I didn't "change" anything. It was a completely separate post 2 days later. I used the age of 50 in my new post because that fit more of the workforce and I sad BAD FLU to adjust for the increased fatality percentages, but fuck it, the report estimated <60 at .145%, we can just roll with that. So are you saying no bad flu season can ever hit .145%? That my post is fantasy land? [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
It killed 500,000+ worldwide, but didn’t require “social distancing” apparently.
hypotethical
if you have virus with CFR of 0 , but if the R0 is 4 and the hospitalization is 80% across all ages and people leave the hospital but require home oxygen for life in 35% of the cases.
would you look at the CFR of 0% and say we good. [Reply]
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
That was a TOTALLY DIFFERENT POST FROM TWO FUCKING DAYS AGO. That is not what Hamas was replying to. AT ALL. How many times does this need to be pointed out.
And yes the death rate for those <40 (according to that report) is damn close to .1%, like I said it may be as high as .12% but I'd have to check since it isn't broken down like that. <60 is .145% so it stands to reason that it is pretty close to .1% for <40.
I didn't "change" anything. It was a completely separate post 2 days later. I used the age of 50 in my new post because that fit more of the workforce and I sad BAD FLU to adjust for the increased fatality percentages, but fuck it, the report estimated <60 at .145%, we can just roll with that. So are you saying no bad flu season can ever hit .145%? That my post is fantasy land?
At this point, I don't know what the fuck you are saying at all. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Right. We equaled that in March, and April looks to be dramatically higher.
Even if COVID-19 is more contagious/deadly than the Swine Flu pandemic is it more severe enough to justify the dramatically different approach in mitigation strategy between the two pandemics?
Other than isolated school closings and a few summer camp closings, there was minimal societal impact with the Swine Flu pandemic, compared to the total shutdown of society/economy with COVID-19.
Seems like there should be a middle ground mitigation strategy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Even if COVID-19 is more contagious/deadly than the Swine Flu pandemic is it more severe enough to justify the dramatically different approach in mitigation strategy between the two pandemics?
Other than isolated school closings and a few summer camp closings, there was minimal societal impact with the Swine Flu pandemic, compared to the total shutdown of society/economy with COVID-19.
Seems like there should be a middle ground mitigation strategy.
All I know is that the people who study these things for a living tell us that doing nothing will result in millions of people dead (and I don't care at all about what numbers random guys on the internet with a calculator say). The countries that tried to go without restrictions at first quickly reversed their strategy, which is also telling. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Even if COVID-19 is more contagious/deadly than the Swine Flu pandemic is it more severe enough to justify the dramatically different approach in mitigation strategy between the two pandemics?
Other than isolated school closings and a few summer camp closings, there was minimal societal impact with the Swine Flu pandemic, compared to the total shutdown of society/economy with COVID-19.
Seems like there should be a middle ground mitigation strategy.
Do you understand the difference between a CFR of 0.02% and 2%? [Reply]
If you were wondering why there were so many people NOT in critical care a week ago. You should have your answer. Critical patients and amt of deaths obviously will lag. Just a week ago there was about 1,200 in critical. Now, almost 6,000.
I think it's hard to fathom an outcome where at least 100,000 Americans DONT die from Covid-19. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
I spent nearly an hour waiting in line outside to enter a local grocery store this morning because of the county's new mandate that all grocery stores must reduce their normal capacity by 50% (to encourage social distancing).
So this created a long line of people outside practicing less social distancing than if they were already inside of the store (where there are social distancing markers/indicators).
Not to mention the "normal" store capacity is created by the fire marshal with the premise of promoting safe distances.
And also two elderly people and a person with diabetes who were waiting in the long line required medical attention from the heat/sun exposure. Ironically the same category of people most at risk from Coronarivus, are also at risk from the supposed social distancing measures to curtail the virus' spread.
A supposed "cure" being worse than the public health threat... Exhibit A.
Publix around here is only letting customers 65+ and or with disabilities in the stores 7:00-8:00 am on Tuesdays and Wensdays. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
If you were wondering why there were so many people NOT in critical care a week ago. You should have your answer. Critical patients and amt of deaths obviously will lag. Just a week ago there was about 1,200 in critical. Now, almost 6,000.
I think it's hard to fathom an outcome where at least 100,000 Americans DONT die from Covid-19.
I'm still hopeful that we won't get to that figure. [Reply]
