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The Dumbass Lounge>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
BWillie 03:26 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY:
And there goes our economy and life.

12k people die globally out of 7.7B Really?

What if it was 1k times worse in the end? It's still be less than half the numbers of 1918 with population that far exceeds what it was back then.

Have you ever divided 12M by 7.7B?

You can listen to the media endlessly from a medical and financial perspective and you will never be given real information on any level especially when it come to the math. Something isn't right.
Exponential math. I'll try to help out, again. COVID-19 is in the same family of Coronaviruses that cause common colds. How many people get a common cold each year? Just about everybody. Adults average 2-4 a year. If you are really lucky. Maybe you don't get a cold during the cold and flu season.

We can estimate that at least 90% of our population of 330,000,000 will get a Coronavirus each year. As we know, there was a novel H1N1 virus outbreak in 2009. The scare of that was that it was more potent to younger people than the regular flu. An estimated 61 million people contracted the novel H1N1 in a one year period in 2009 in the United States.

As we know, Covid-19 is AT LEAST twice as contagious as H1N1 was. Swine Flu/H1N1 infected 61 million US ppl and being COVID-19 is even more contagious it could easily infect at bare minimum 125 million people of our population.

125,000,000 (the lowest potential amount of infections) x 1% (the lowest acceptable mortality rate) = 1,250,000 minimum deaths if we just, you know. Do nothing. When compared to the swine flu which killed only about 13,000 in the USA.

Being a vaccine may even take 18-months. This number could even be greater. This ALSO doesn't account for the strain on our health care system. The lack of ventilators that would be available. The lack of ICU beds. If you accounted for all of that the mortality rate would go up, as we are seeing in other countries that have had their health care system be overloaded.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html
[Reply]
Monticore 03:29 PM 03-20-2020
I forgot to mention earlier about n95 , it Is not 1 style fits all, we get fitted every year where we sit under a hood and check to see if we can taste the sugary solution they spray under the hood doing various movements etc. Having a beard also reduces effectiveness.i am sure a test could be macgivered at home.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 03:31 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Following you? Don't be silly. You post here. I post here. But, I'll gladly not respond to your posts. As long as you don't keep being a dick.
Thanks.
[Reply]
SupDock 03:31 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
I forgot to mention earlier about n95 , it Is not 1 style fits all, we get fitted every year where we sit under a hood and check to see if we can taste the sugary solution they spray under the hood doing various movements etc. Having a beard also reduces effectiveness.i am sure a test could be macgivered at home.
This is correct.

Also, healthcare providers have resorted to wearing surgical masks because there are not enough n95 masks.
[Reply]
ShowtimeSBMVP 03:32 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by SupDock:
This is correct.

Also, healthcare providers have resorted to wearing surgical masks because there are not enough n95 masks.
One thing for sure after this better start making stuff in the USA again.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 03:32 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
60 days of a California shutdown cancels the NBA and NHL seasons. That's not even debatable.
So many people in sports media are going to lose their jobs.

And it was already a struggling industry.
[Reply]
Monticore 03:32 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by Nickhead:
with many countries calling back it's citizens overseas, doesn't this seem like a bad idea? what if one regioin has more 'carriers' with no symptoms, to an area that is somewhat unaffected by the bug?
If only there was an island full of convicts we could send them to.
[Reply]
candyman 03:32 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Exponential math. I'll try to help out, again. COVID-19 is in the same family of Coronaviruses that cause common colds. How many people get a common cold each year? Just about everybody. Adults average 2-4 a year. If you are really lucky. Maybe you don't get a cold during the cold and flu season.

We can estimate that at least 90% of our population of 330,000,000 will get a Coronavirus each year. As we know, there was a novel H1N1 virus outbreak in 2009. The scare of that was that it was more potent to younger people than the regular flu. An estimated 61 million people contracted the novel H1N1 in a one year period in 2009 in the United States.

As we know, Covid-19 is AT LEAST twice as contagious as H1N1 was. Swine Flu/H1N1 infected 61 million US ppl and being COVID-19 is even more contagious it could easily infect at bare minimum 125 million people of our population.

125,000,000 (the lowest potential amount of infections) x 1% (the lowest acceptable mortality rate) = 1,250,000 minimum deaths if we just, you know. Do nothing. We compared that to the swine flu which killed only about 13,000 in the USA.

Being a vaccine may even take 18-months. This number could even be greater.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html
I'm not saying you're full of shit, but when you post stuff like this please provide links.
[Reply]
DaFace 03:33 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Well... I wonder if that's from a backlog in cases though?
Probably. It implies that we're finally getting the testing machine working, regardless, which is a big step.
[Reply]
DaFace 03:34 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP:
One thing for sure after this better start making stuff in the USA again.
I'm quite confident that reliance on global supply chains for medical supplies is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years.
[Reply]
mr. tegu 03:35 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Exponential math. I'll try to help out, again. COVID-19 is in the same family of Coronaviruses that cause common colds. How many people get a common cold each year? Just about everybody. Adults average 2-4 a year. If you are really lucky. Maybe you don't get a cold during the cold and flu season.

We can estimate that at least 90% of our population of 330,000,000 will get a Coronavirus each year. As we know, there was a novel H1N1 virus outbreak in 2009. The scare of that was that it was more potent to younger people than the regular flu. An estimated 61 million people contracted the novel H1N1 in a one year period in 2009 in the United States.

As we know, Covid-19 is AT LEAST twice as contagious as H1N1 was. Swine Flu/H1N1 infected 61 million US ppl and being COVID-19 is even more contagious it could easily infect at bare minimum 125 million people of our population.

125,000,000 (the lowest potential amount of infections) x 1% (the lowest acceptable mortality rate) = 1,250,000 minimum deaths if we just, you know. Do nothing. When compared to the swine flu which killed only about 13,000 in the USA.

Being a vaccine may even take 18-months. This number could even be greater.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

Thereís a lot of wrong in this post. Itís estimated there are at least 200 viruses that cause the common cold. Of those only a few are known coronaviruses that affect people and they make up about 20-30% of cases.
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 03:35 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
I'm quite confident that reliance on global supply chains for medical supplies is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years.
And are wages going to magically raise across the board for people to afford the goods that aren't as cheap as they once were?
[Reply]
SupDock 03:35 PM 03-20-2020
Notice how the CDC guidelines for PPE have changed. They changed from N95 masks for healthcare providers to surgical masks being acceptable. Look at the PPE in China vs the PPE being used here.
[Reply]
rockymountainchief 03:37 PM 03-20-2020
Thought this might be of interest.

For the past five weeks, infectious disease researchers from institutions around the United States have been taking a survey that gathers their thoughts on the trajectory of the COVID-19 virus. The researchers come from academia, government and industry, and are experts in modeling the spread of viruses like this one:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...to-get-either/
[Reply]
Donger 03:37 PM 03-20-2020
Originally Posted by SupDock:
Notice how the CDC guidelines for PPE have changed. They changed from N95 masks for healthcare providers to surgical masks being acceptable. Look at the PPE in China vs the PPE being used here.
Pete says masks don't do jack shit anyway. Stop listening to the media!

:-)
[Reply]
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