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The Dumbass Lounge>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
mr. tegu 12:26 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Again, the issue is that it just doesn't pass the sniff test. If 32% were exposed, that means that tripling the number of deaths per capita should yield a maximum per-capita death rate. But according to Covidly, Massachusetts is at 251 compared to New York at 924. It's hard to reconcile that, though I know that things are still settling out.

Given the amount of asymptomatic and mild cases there really isnít any reason to assume a tripling of hospitalizations or death rates. The safe assumption we can make is that we are much closer to catching all of the severe cases than we are to catching all cases.
[Reply]
DaFace 12:36 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
Given the amount of asymptomatic and mild cases there really isn’t any reason to assume a tripling of hospitalizations or death rates. The safe assumption we can make is that we are much closer to catching all of the severe cases than we are to catching all cases.
Right, that's the point. New York is already more than triple the per-capita death rate of Massachusetts. That shouldn't be possible if it's true that 32% of people in the latter already have caught it and you assume that death rates shouldn't vary much among cases.
[Reply]
Demonpenz 12:42 PM 04-20-2020
Home.depot has been meeting goals in like half a.month with the lockdown. Hopefully smaller hardware stores are like that as well.
[Reply]
mr. tegu 12:43 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Right, that's the point. New York is already more than triple the per-capita death rate of Massachusetts. That shouldn't be possible if it's true that 32% of people in the latter already have caught it and you assume that death rates shouldn't vary much among cases.

We donít need to assume death rates are relatively equal among all cases. We know they arenít based on per capita rates in various locations.
[Reply]
DaFace 12:45 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
We donít need to assume death rates are relatively equal among all cases. We know they arenít based on per capita rates in various locations.
You think that New Yorkers are inherently more likely to die from it? For what reason?
[Reply]
Marcellus 12:48 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
And just because things are so awesome as it is, we've got a CO2 shortage threatening the beverage industry.
If this isn't evidence of the butterfly effect I don't know what is.
[Reply]
Marcellus 12:49 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
You think that New Yorkers are inherently more likely to die from it? For what reason?
Wouldn't one have to assume that NY has proportionally more unknown cases as well so the CFR wouldn't be different?
[Reply]
petegz28 12:50 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
You think that New Yorkers are inherently more likely to die from it? For what reason?
Viral load?
[Reply]
mr. tegu 12:51 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
You think that New Yorkers are inherently more likely to die from it? For what reason?

You are welcome to explore the reasoning for the wide range of death rates. It would be interesting to see. Perhaps the suspected various strands plays a part. But the point is that at this time based on available numbers assuming equal death rates just doesnít work as an assumption. However, if you add a ton of cases then New York could be more equal to other places on the death rate, which would then support the idea put forth about many more infected.
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 12:52 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Wouldn't one have to assume that NY has proportionally more unknown cases as well so the CFR wouldn't be different?
NYC has already exceeded the lower bound of the CFR based on the antibody study. Therefore, it cannot be correct.
[Reply]
DaFace 12:52 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Wouldn't one have to assume that NY has proportionally more unknown cases as well so the CFR wouldn't be different?
I'm ignoring cases entirely and just focusing on deaths per capita, so that shouldn't make a difference.
[Reply]
DaFace 12:53 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Viral load?
Possibly. :-)

Anyway, my point isn't that it's impossible that 32% of people in Boston have it - only that it seems very unlikely given what we're seeing in NYC. Time will tell.
[Reply]
SAUTO 12:56 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I have and discussed this in great detail last weel. And with the exception of the first week in April Sundays were not "down". Last week they were lower and then lower again on Monday.

Maybe they were just lower and that's that?
Not sure where your getting numbers from

3-31 tues 914
4-1 w 1050
2 th 974
3 fr 1051
4 sat 1330
5 sun 1167 !!!
6 mon 1257 !!!
7 tues 1973
8 weíd 1943
9 th 1901
10 fri 2035
11 sat 1830
12 sun 1578!!!
13 mon 1535!!!
14 tues 2405
15 wed 2016
16 thurs 2176
17 fri 2578
18 sat 1867!!!
19 sun 1861!!!


See how Sunday and Mondays are consistently lower than any days around them???
[Reply]
TLO 12:59 PM 04-20-2020
MO DHSS numbers for yesterday

Cases in Missouri: 5,667

Total Deaths: 176

Patients tested in Missouri (by all labs): approximately 55,873
As of 2:00 p.m. CT, April 19

Numbers for today

Cases in Missouri: 5,807

Total Deaths: 177

Patients tested in Missouri (by all labs): approximately 55,873 (not yet updated for 4/20/20)
[Reply]
Bwana 12:59 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by Nirvana58:
I can't speak for the others but Pizza Hut is wrong. Last numbers I looked at had Pizza Huts sales profit down 30%. This virus is hitting everyone in the restaurant business.
They are hiring 30K extra workers.

http://blog.pizzahut.com/pizza-hut-e...rbside-pickup/

https://www.impactbnd.com/blog/not-a...uring-covid-19
[Reply]
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