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The Dumbass Lounge>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
SAUTO 01:36 PM 04-02-2020
CNN reporting that the model that was at 83k yesterday is now at 94k deaths...
[Reply]
O.city 01:36 PM 04-02-2020
People are about 3 weeks (maybe less) away from saying "fuck it, i'll take my chances of getting sick vs dealing with a great depression"
[Reply]
Marcellus 01:37 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
People are about 3 weeks (maybe less) away from saying "**** it, i'll take my chances of getting sick vs dealing with a great depression"
I doubt you got 3 weeks, maybe 10 days.
[Reply]
Marcellus 01:38 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
CNN reporting that the model that was at 83k yesterday is now at 94k deaths...
Pretty sure when I looked yesterday it was at 94K.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/
[Reply]
BIG_DADDY 01:38 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I doubt you got 3 weeks, maybe 10 days.
It's already getting like that in the bay area. We are probably at 50% right now. Give it another week.

They just shut down schools for the rest of this year.
[Reply]
SAUTO 01:39 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
People are about 3 weeks (maybe less) away from saying "fuck it, i'll take my chances of getting sick vs dealing with a great depression"
Depends on when the money starts rolling in. And how much more they are talking about throwing out IMO
[Reply]
SAUTO 01:40 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Pretty sure when I looked yesterday it was at 94K.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/
Lol every news channel sucks

Needless to say it was definitely 83k a couple days ago
[Reply]
petegz28 01:41 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
People are about 3 weeks (maybe less) away from saying "**** it, i'll take my chances of getting sick vs dealing with a great depression"
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I doubt you got 3 weeks, maybe 10 days.
I think you have until the end of April. If they start talking about another 30 days after the end of this month then yeah, people are going to start taking to the streets.
[Reply]
O.city 01:42 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
Depends on when the money starts rolling in. And how much more they are talking about throwing out IMO
If it's gonna take 6 months to get money, people aren't waiting.
[Reply]
petegz28 01:42 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
If it's gonna take 6 months to get money, people aren't waiting.
They said up to 24 weeks if you require a paper check.
[Reply]
mac459 01:43 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Spend much time in rural Missouri?

Harm or not, what I'm saying is that most of them will simply ignore it.

And yeah, lack of existing medical infrastructure is a concern in rural areas, but it's a concern that isn't going anywhere. Ever. So if you just try to effectively wall them off - what happens in a few months? Same thing. The 'buy time' argument in regions with significant hospital capacity that just needs to gear up and bear down - I can see that argument. I agree (partially ) with it.

But man - what's stalling for time due in Sullivan County? How are you going to appreciably alter outcomes over a real timeline by having Parson tell them to stay at home? Which they will largely ignore anyway?

What may actually HELP someplace like that could be having your impact come through now, when statewide travel is already reduced due to major counties closing their gates (thus slowing the initial influx). And when you have very few ancillary respiratory issues that would otherwise be bogging down what little hospital capacity they already have.

When stalling isn't likely to yield significant benefit to them - timing their window could be what's more important. And because of the nature of spread over distance, it will also have it slowly work through those rural counties and thus reduce the possibility of a larger outbreak when a state-wide order is lifted.

You ask what the harm is, but I struggle to see any clear benefit either. So ultimately shouldn't they be able to maintain some level of autonomy?



Since DJ brought up Sullivan Co, I can give some insight on that one. I grew up there, thatís where my farm is, and lots of my family love there.


They started shutting down about 2 weeks ago now, Mom has been home for about a week and a half. She works for a city in the county, dad is still working but he is with MODOT. Schools shut down, sporting events, damn near everything. Along with the surrounding areas that are in the middle of nowhere up there.
[Reply]
F150 01:45 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
So now they are saying masks only prevent you from spreading it not necessarily getting it.
so what? If we were to move to masks and continue social distancing and continue lock downs the spread would become even smaller.
[Reply]
O.city 01:45 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
They said up to 24 weeks if you require a paper check.
Yeah, what a joke.

The PPP program for small busniesses is a huge cluster fuck too.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 01:45 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
CNN reporting that the model that was at 83k yesterday is now at 94k deaths...
Man, when the shaded area (your uncertainty level) pegs you at somewhere between 40K deaths and 180K deaths...what is even being provided?

That model isn't saying "best case is 40K, worst is 180K" it's saying "this model says its gonna fall somewhere between these levels..." and then putting a line in the center.

It's the margin for error. If a model can't give me a projection that doesn't yield outcomes 4 orders of magnitude apart...maybe just don't lean into that one.

It's essentially saying "our model projects that the Chiefs will win somewhere between 4 games and 15 games next season, so we're gonna project 10..."

Well thanks, guys. Not gonna be rushing to Vegas with that information.
[Reply]
DaFace 01:46 PM 04-02-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
Lol every news channel sucks

Needless to say it was definitely 83k a couple days ago
I'm less interested in how the models are adjusting than how actual performance is comparing to modeled forecasts.
[Reply]
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