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Washington DC and The Holy Land>So I watched part of the economic policy council
Buehler445 10:51 PM 02-24-2020
So Iíve been sick today and am tired of TV so I tuned into CSpans coverage of the economic policy conference.

I wish Iíd have tuned in earlier. Now, the speaker Phillip Swagel is terrible. I think he took a bump of coke because heís all wound up and talking fast and sniffles every 30 seconds or so. Nonetheless the information is good and useful.

I donít normally see stuff in nominal dollars which is the most useful metric in historical analysis.

The biggest thing I got out of it was the debt to GDP is almost as high as WWII and not slowing down. Thatís horrifying. Plus the coke head pointed out that that generation paid their debt, we arenít paying ours. Naturally.

He had another slide that showed the breakdown of the budget. It had 3 lines. Discretionary, Mandatory and Interest. So mandatory portions of the budget have skyrocketed while discretionary has cratered. Eating away at the discretionary is interest on mounting debt. Discretionary is projected to equal interest payments in the next few decades. This points to the increasing necessity of entitlement reform. (military in there too).

Couple things that surprised me:
1. The aging of our population. Nobodyís dying and nobody is having kids. I didnít realize it was as extensive as it was.

2. The effect of the tax cut. I do taxes in the winter and knew it was a substantial cut but It was a surprise to even me.
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El Lobo Gordo 02:42 AM 02-26-2020
Originally Posted by neech:
This guy makes 50 grand a year and his wife doesn't work, I'm not saying it can't be done but more like the perspective i don't see how they can do it.
Certain economies of scale kick in. It doesn't cost much more to heat a home for 8 kids versus 3 kids. The cost of buying an Xbox for 8 kids is for most part the same as buying for 3 kids...same for things like trampolines etc. Clothes can get passed on from older children to younger children. It does cost not 8x more to raise 8 kids than it does to raise 1 child.
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Buehler445 09:16 PM 02-27-2020
I couldn't find the presentation on YouTube. We fucking show every goddamned thing on YouTube, but economic analysis can get fucked I guess.

I did manage to find the slides though.

Here's the mandatory vs discretionary stuff I was talking about. As it turns out, Patt Was right, and discretionary INCLUDES military. Look at how much the fucking mandatory payments have grown! WHAT THE FUCK?





This is how they're explaining the changes.



That is fucking terrifying.
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Buehler445 09:20 PM 02-27-2020
This is the one about the tax change. I couldn't remember exactly what it was showing when I posted about it.

It turns out this is what their projecting for revenue increases when the tax program sunsets. Accordingly, the inverse happened when they were implemented. Which is an astronomical amount of money headed back to the constituents currently.


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Buehler445 09:26 PM 02-27-2020
Here's the real horror show.

Debt ratios almost as high as WWII. What this dude pointed out wasn't that we were deferring debt to our grandkids (we are), but moreover, there are multiple generations that are accruing debt and not paying it. Never before has that happened.

He didn't say it, but it's setting up for a never ending cycle that leads... Well, you know.


[Reply]
cosmo20002 09:37 PM 02-27-2020
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
Don't forget about the public school. My child brings home "fund raising" crap 3 days/wk. it seems. And of course, the wife thinks we just HAVE to buy crap every damn time!! Because who can live without a 1 oz. can of peanuts for 3 easy installments of $59.95 :-)

It's for the kidz :-)
But don't forget about the great prizes they offer the kids to sell. Sell just 10,000 cans of those peanuts (kids think that is do-able) and win an iPad!
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IowaHawkeyeChief 10:16 PM 02-27-2020
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Here's the real horror show.

Debt ratios almost as high as WWII. What this dude pointed out wasn't that we were deferring debt to our grandkids (we are), but moreover, there are multiple generations that are accruing debt and not paying it. Never before has that happened.

He didn't say it, but it's setting up for a never ending cycle that leads... Well, you know.

and this at historically low treasury rates... yet the left wants to add more and more entitlements. The only way to right the situation is entitlement reform and the left demagogues any attempt to even discuss...
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F150 10:19 PM 02-27-2020
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Here's the real horror show.

Debt ratios almost as high as WWII. What this dude pointed out wasn't that we were deferring debt to our grandkids (we are), but moreover, there are multiple generations that are accruing debt and not paying it. Never before has that happened.

He didn't say it, but it's setting up for a never ending cycle that leads... Well, you know.


There is another side to this and it says we dont have a real horror show....debt as a % of assets is actually well below highs historically....
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Buehler445 10:53 PM 02-27-2020
FWIW Here is the link. Meant to post it earlier.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56189
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Buehler445 10:57 PM 02-27-2020
Originally Posted by F150:
There is another side to this and it says we dont have a real horror show....debt as a % of assets is actually well below highs historically....
Link?

Even then, GDP is how that debt is going to get serviced. In banking that's called Capital Debt Repayment Capacity, and it's all revenue driven.

And these numbers in the chart are a percentage of GDP, not of revenue collected.

I don't see any way this isn't a damned horror show.

FWIW, the farm crisis in the 80s was fueled largely by "ahhhh hell, borrow more! You've got assets on the balance sheet!"
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F150 11:27 PM 02-27-2020
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Link?

Even then, GDP is how that debt is going to get serviced. In banking that's called Capital Debt Repayment Capacity, and it's all revenue driven.

And these numbers in the chart are a percentage of GDP, not of revenue collected.

I don't see any way this isn't a damned horror show.

FWIW, the farm crisis in the 80s was fueled largely by "ahhhh hell, borrow more! You've got assets on the balance sheet!"
Ill give you the info tomorrow
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Buehler445 10:14 AM 03-02-2020
Originally Posted by F150:
There is another side to this and it says we dont have a real horror show....debt as a % of assets is actually well below highs historically....
Originally Posted by F150:
Ill give you the info tomorrow
Did you find anything out F150?
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F150 10:28 AM 03-02-2020
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Did you find anything out F150?

Yes, I have it, ill shoot a pic of the source in a while...Im ass deep in tax prep this am....
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Buehler445 10:32 AM 03-02-2020
Originally Posted by F150:
Yes, I have it, ill shoot a pic of the source in a while...Im ass deep in tax prep this am....
Cool man. My payment comes out today. :-)

At least I don't have to make estimates.
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F150 10:35 AM 03-02-2020
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Cool man. My payment comes out today. :-)

At least I don't have to make estimates.
Im almost to the "go get receipts out of the pickup" stage....
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Buehler445 10:40 AM 03-02-2020
Originally Posted by F150:
Im almost to the "go get receipts out of the pickup" stage....
Oh, you're a shoebox return.

It's better than ledgers. Don't be a ledger guy.
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