Originally Posted by wazu:
Maybe. I generally just don't trust a team that relies on the run against a team that puts up a ton of points. Even a bad run defense will get some stops as the run game relies on making many good plays to score. A holding penalty, a false start. So many things can stall out a drive. Bills will get their points it feels like no matter what.
It's all going to come down to the Bills and how they defend Jackson. He's the guy that can make runs into efficient scores, just like a good deep pass.
If they let him break of big runs, that goes against the whole idea of stopping a run-based attack by allowing them to make mistakes. He breaks the "bend, don't break" idea.
I don't know if the Bills have the means to do it. On the other side, the Ravens have a set of really good CB's, at least 3 deep, and a blitz scheme that could frustrate Allen. If they sit back in zone, they're dead, so they won't have a choice but to force it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
It's going to take a couple of seasons of actually seeing it happen before I believe that the NFL will stop with the Brady promotion.
I picked the Bucs solely because I think he'll get enough flags to win.
Originally Posted by :
It is hard to beat a good team three times in a season, they say.
Since the 1970 NFL Merger, there have been 21 instances where a team swept a team in the regular season and then had a third battle in the playoffs.
The sweeping team has gone 14-7 in those games, which means it must not be *that* hard to beat a playoff team three times in a season.
It is worth noting that in 4 of these 21 trio of games, the sweeping team was on the road in the postseason.
2 In the 17 instances where the postseason home team swept their playoff opponent during the regular season, the home teams went an impressive 12-5 in those games. The home team was, as you would expected, favored in all 17 games, with an average points spread of 5.8 points.
In the season opener, the Saints beat the Bucs by 11 points, and then the Saints shocked Tampa Bay on the road in the rematch, 38-3. Drew Brees threw 6 touchdowns and had no interceptions in the two games, while Tom Brady threw just 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions while averaging just 5.13 net yards per attempt in those games. New Orleans won the two games by an average of 23 points a remarkable amount even for a two-game sweep. But it probably doesn’t mean much: there were three teams in our 17-paired sample where the sweeping team averaged a 17-point win or better during the regular season; shockingly, those teams went 0-3 in the playoff rematch.
So yes, the Saints sure seem well equipped to handle Tampa Bay based on their dominant performance in the regular season. But I think it is probably best just to ignore that; for the most part, the sweeping teams usually win because they were the better team in the regular season and were at home in the playoffs. In this case, New Orleans is a 3-point favorite in the rematch, a pretty low number due to the low homefield advantage in this COVID-19 world and the extremely similar points differential the two teams had during the regular season. I agree with Vegas: I’d make New Orleans the favorite, but this game feels close to a toss up. And while I wouldn’t put much stock in the Saints regular season sweeps, I certainly would ignore any analysis that says it’s hard to go 3-0 against a good team. Once you go 2-0, it’s actually not that hard!
The table below shows the 17 trio of games discussed above.
Again, the home playoff team after sweeping their postseason opponent has gone 12-7 since the merger.
The table below also includes links to all three games.
I fancy the Rams to rattle Rodgers. He looked awful when Tampa Bay D line got at him and with Ramsey good enough to shut down his go to throwing option of Davante Adams I can see the frustration building into poor decisions. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hayneplane:
I fancy the Rams to rattle Rodgers. He looked awful when Tampa Bay D line got at him and with Ramsey good enough to shut down his go to throwing option of Davante Adams I can see the frustration building into poor decisions.
Ramsey is good enough to slow down Adam but nobody is shutting him down completely, not 1-on-1. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ClevelandBronco:
The reigning champs could save themselves a whole lot of embarrassment this weekend if they could find an excuse not to play the game.
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
It's all going to come down to the Bills and how they defend Jackson. He's the guy that can make runs into efficient scores, just like a good deep pass.
If they let him break of big runs, that goes against the whole idea of stopping a run-based attack by allowing them to make mistakes. He breaks the "bend, don't break" idea.
I don't know if the Bills have the means to do it. On the other side, the Ravens have a set of really good CB's, at least 3 deep, and a blitz scheme that could frustrate Allen. If they sit back in zone, they're dead, so they won't have a choice but to force it.
I think some people saw what the Chiefs have done to the Ravens defense and assume the Bills will have similar success.
I don’t think it’s that simple. The Bills don’t have Travis Kelce for one. He is an absolute mismatch for any team. [Reply]
