Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
I’m wondering if the Israeli data is against “any” infection vs against symptomatic infection. Which, if that’s the case, it would be essentially the same as against alpha [Reply]
115 COVID+ @MercySGF. Running almost 50 vents now. We are expanding to 2nd COVID ICU and a 2nd step down. Physicians, nurses and respiratory therapists are tired. Heck everyone is tired. Travel RN’s coming this week. Physician support being arranged. If you’re a RT, call us.
Originally Posted by O.city:
I’m wondering if the Israeli data is against “any” infection vs against symptomatic infection. Which, if that’s the case, it would be essentially the same as against alpha
I still can't actually find the data. But websites are picking it up and making some outrageous headlines. This has a little more info.
COVID Vaccine Effectiveness Drops to 64% in Israel, Health Ministry Says; Experts Differ
The ministry says, however, that the COVID vaccine is 93 percent effective in preventing hospitalizations and severe symptoms
Ido Efrati
Jul. 5, 2021
The Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine has dropped to 64 percent effectiveness in preventing infection in Israel as the delta variant continues to spread across the country, the Health Ministry said on Monday.
According to Israeli data published in March, two weeks after the vaccine was given, it had 99 percent efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 and 91.2 percent in preventing infection.
The ministry added that the vaccine is 93 percent effective in preventing hospitalizations and severe symptoms.
The ministry refrained from recommending administering a third dose of the vaccine at this stage. It, however, called on all those who came into contact with a confirmed COVID-19 carrier, including vaccinated ones, to get tested for the virus.
The data was presented on Sunday by members of the Health Ministry's epidemiology team. However, experts have expressed doubt regarding the analysis of infection rates in Israel in recent weeks and the ministry's epidemiology team has also questioned it.
Nevertheless, health sources believe that the inoculation's efficacy against the delta variant is much lower than initially presumed.
The models used by the Health Ministry have been called into question by health professionals.
"There are enormous methodological challenges in properly assessing the efficacy of the vaccine from local outbreaks," one health expert told Haaretz.
Prof. Ran Balicer, the chief of the professional coronavirus cabinet which advises the Israel's coronavirus cabinet, added that it is very difficult to gauge vaccine efficacy when COVID tests are performed selectively.
"This is fundamentally different from the evaluation that came from the U.K.," another expert stated.
The Health Ministry's model was built on the assumption that the vaccine is 80 percent effective against the delta variant, as opposed to 90 percent against the alpha variant hailing from Britain.
The main research findings until now, including those by British health authorities published in the medical journal Lancet, show that two weeks after the second dose is administered, the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine is 88 percent effective against the delta variant. That is only slightly less than the 93 percent for the alpha variant.
The delta variant, however, is considered to be one and a half times more contagious than the alpha, and twice as infectious as the original version of the virus. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
I’m wondering if the Israeli data is against “any” infection vs against symptomatic infection. Which, if that’s the case, it would be essentially the same as against alpha
Did you ever see anything on the data from Israel? [Reply]
COVID-19 cases were up in nearly half of U.S. states, a USA TODAY Network analysis of Johns Hopkins University data shows.
Alaska and Arkansas more than doubled cases in just the last week. South Carolina and Kansas are up more than 50%.
In Missouri, the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients jumped by nearly 30% over the Fourth of July weekend in a hard-hit area where immunization rates are low, leading to a temporary ventilator shortage and a public call for help from respiratory therapists.
The delta variant, first identified in India, is spreading rapidly throughout the state, straining hospitals in Springfield and raising fresh fears that the situation could soon grow worse as holiday gatherings seed fresh cases. Missouri leads the nation with the most new cases per capita in the past 14 days; 39.4% of residents there are fully vaccinated.
COVID-19 cases in Mississippi increased by almost 15% in June, and with Mississippi's fully vaccinated rate of 31% – the lowest rate in the nation – top disease expert Anthony Fauci said he would wear a mask while in the state.
“I might want to go the extra mile to be cautious enough to be sure that I get the extra added layer of protection, even though the vaccines themselves are highly effective,” Fauci told Chuck Todd on NBC's "Meet the Press."
The recent increase in COVID-19-related hospitalizations in the state has been attributed to the rise to the delta variant's spread. About 95% of those hospitalizations have been in unvaccinated Mississippians, officials said.
"It feels very reminiscent of where we were in an early part of the pandemic," State Epidemiologist Paul Byers said during a June 29 press conference. "It feels like we're in the same situation now with the delta variant." [Reply]
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) July 5, 2021
Even if the data are accurate, 64% is still relatively very good. The best flu vaccine efficacy I've ever seen was 60% Some years, it's in the 10 to 20% range. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
Did you ever see anything on the data from Israel?
You may have seen that the Israeli MoH claims that Pfizer vaccine efficacy has dropped to 64% in Israel, concurrent with the rise of the Delta variant. The MoH has now published more details on the methodology. Briefly: negative binomial regression controlling for week and age.
Within 3 days we got data from Canada about Pfizer vs Delta, based on millions of people, showing NO decrease in efficacy, in line UK (also millions). Then we have a small Israel study, based on ~300 people, which shows drop in efficacy. Which one are the news outlets reporting?