It would have to mean that at least Carpenter is gone if they were to land Arenado. I would love to see this happen the way DJ laid it out.
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They take on a bad contract because I can't see 2 years of Arenado at $70 million total getting them a top 50 prospect on it's own, especially when that 2 years comes with the downside/risk of him declining outside of Coors and locking you into another 5 years/$164 million through his age 31 through 35 seasons.

Like I said, unless Philly jumps in with a 'damn the torpedoes' approach and throws Bohm on the table while absorbing the contract, the other 'big money' teams in the league have either shot their wad or are at their budget limits. I don't see them doing much better than what the Cards can offer there.

As for the NTCs - Fowler waives his because he started in Colorado, has spoken highly of it, has a home in Vegas (much closer) and his wife appears to hate STL. Carpenter waives his because he has a 2022 vesting option that triggers at 1100 plate appearances and you tell him "Dude - you're a bench player if you stay. You can go to Colorado and use that thin air to bounce-back, get your ABs and vest that $18.5 million option or you can reject the deal, sit the bench behind Tommy Edman and watch your career/earnings potential whither away due to your ability to hawk Salsa at the local Dierburgs..."

They both have good reasons to waive their NTCs.
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ONeill in left, Randy Arozarena in center, and Lane Thomas in right to start the year?
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Trading good assets for a very expensive player after ignoring top positional FAs two years in a row would be a rough approach.
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I live in Denver and absolutely love Arenado. We all talk about his hitting but his defense is top notch, too. He's my favorite MLB player and if there is some way we can get rid of Carpenter and/or Fowler, oh my. Sign me up!
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Again - it's largely revenue neutral in the first 2 years.

At that point you bring back Ozuna on a 1-year deal. Offer him 1 year/$19 million so he saves face by getting more than the QO and slap him in RF (this obviously assumes that he's lingering FA is due to a tepid market and NOT because he's slow-playing and/or trying to sift through several long-term deals...).

You're damn lefty heavy at that point so I'd be working hard on a deal for Pederson or Nimmo if I could swing it. Eddie Rosario would also be a fantastic fit. Dakota Hudson is a bit too much to give up for Rosario but they could try to figure something out or expand the deal if need be. I don't think you could pry Taylor Rogers out of there with Rosario even for something like Hudson and O'Neill, but I'd make the ask and eventually look at someone like Lewis Thorpe as a guy who could benefit from a bullpen role and be a nice long-term LHRP here with the potential to start.

So if I made my proposed Rox deal and got Ozuna signed on a 1 year deal to man LF, I'm betting I could get that Hudson for Rosario/Thorpe deal done and then plug Rosario into LF while O'Neill/Thomas battle for CF. Carlson bides his time and either picks off a straggler in the CF derby or comes up in the event of injury.
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Most assuredly not the approach I'd have taken. I cannot for the life of me understand why Mozeliak/Dewitt appear to prefer it.
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Here Colorado take our scraps....suuuuure :-)
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Cards just acquired Liberatore from TB. Hearing for maybe O’Neill? That alone wouldn’t get it done tho, right?
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Zack Gifford of Birdsontheblack with a similar analysis. His estimates don't quite match mine but where he giveth here and there, he taketh here and there as well. We're in the ballpark of each other.

https://www.birdsontheblack.com/post...-the-cardinals

I'll note that the dude takes virtually the EXACT same approach I do. His conclusion is even a little cleaner:

Matt Carpenter, Andrew Knizner and Elehuris Montero for Arenado.

Seriously folks, if you think Arenado is getting Carlson in a trade or even getting moved straight across for Gorman, you have a dimmer opinion of Mozeliak than even I do and at this point I'd consider letting my wife run the team ahead of Mozo. It isn't going to happen. The market for $35 million/season players will be 2-3 teams at most and I just cannot believe that our local clown will bid against himself that badly.

The Yankees got the Marlins to take their shit contract (Castro, IIRC) in the Stanton deal and they didn't include ANYTHING in the package with him; some scrub organizational depth pieces. You just cannot overstate the impact of mega-contracts on a players trade value.
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If my memory serves, that dude is Flaherty's best friend. He has some really close relationship with someone on the Cardinals.
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He's too far away to be a straight across Hudson replacement.

But if Carlos steps back into the rotation, that's a perfect timeline for him to replace the Korean guy in a couple of years.

If it's O'Neill I think I really like that trade and it's a sensible 'domino'. Even clears a 40 man spot (or at least it should).
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Well to clarify, he's Gorman's best friend and has been since they were 4.

So that's...interesting.
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If all they are giving up is one of their logjam of outfielders at the ML Level (O'Neill, Arozarena, Thomas, Bader), I have to say I will feel pretty good about the trade. As highly as Liberatore was drafted tho, I fear Mo may have overspent on the trade. Lib immediately becomes a Top 5 prospect for us.
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My Rays friends down here that know I’m a Cardinals fan started texting me 30 minutes or so ago. They are pissed. One says you got nothing worth him besides Gorman or Carlson. And the Rays are too stupid to get either of those two.
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