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The Marty Lounge>So it’s really just the Steelers [or Bills] right?
RunKC 09:41 PM 09-28-2020
I mean goddamn this conference seems wrapped up doesn’t it? Not trying to jinx us but it really seems like injuries are our biggest opponent at this point.

The Ravens are fucking frauds. They’re a warm up for us. We literally made these guys look like the JV squad the last 2 meetings.

And sure the Bills and Titans may make us work for the win, but in all honesty we have to play pretty goddamn shitty to lose to those guys.

In order to have any shot at beating us you need 3 things:

1. Elite pass rush
2. Top 10 QB capable of making critical plays
3. Overall talented roster

Steelers are the only team in the AFC that has those 3 things, and even them it’s not like they’re some serious threat like the Patriots a couple years back, but they seem like the best of the rest.

I think at this point it would be disappointing for this team to not get to the SB 3 straight times.

We’re just that good, and we keep drafting well and get better and better.
[Reply]
daquix 12:46 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Like I said, it's just my opi9nion.

But when i review film on these two, I still see Allen staring down receivers, being unsure of where his hot route is if Diggs isn't on the field, and just not throwing with good anticipation/timing.

Not on every passing snap, but it still happens a few times in nearly every game, that I've watched the Bills play.

Baker came into the league with a solid understanding of throwing on time/in rhythm, and throwing with anticipation. In short, Baker hits most of his receivers on time and in the breadbasket or where the defender can't do much about it. Allen is still throwing "at" receivers a lot, so sometimes the ball is located poorly, and his timing isn't consistent.
If thats the case, why do you feel Allen has a better completion %, yards, TD's, etc? Meaning, what do you attribute the reason as to why he is better in every category yet worse at reading the defenses, staring down receivers, throwing "at" them, etc?
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MahomesMagic 01:01 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by daquix:
If thats the case, why do you feel Allen has a better completion %, yards, TD's, etc? Meaning, what do you attribute the reason as to why he is better in every category yet worse at reading the defenses, staring down receivers, throwing "at" them, etc?
Brian Daboll. He has created an offense to max Allen positives and limit the negatives. Allen is generally throwing to his first read or check down.
[Reply]
Megatron96 01:10 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by daquix:
If thats the case, why do you feel Allen has a better completion %, yards, TD's, etc?
Well, let's see.

Allen has been playing with the same HC and OC for awhile now. So he has the advantage of stability.

For a season Allen had the advantage of a better OL, and this season he has the advantage of Diggs, who's been effective hiding some of Allen's inaccuracy and timing issues.

Meanwhile Baker has already been through three HCs, and I don't know how many OCs, so multiple systems.

Baker went through last season with a pretty bad OL. At least on passing snaps. And Freddie Kitchens' OCing gaffes every game. Bottom line, Baker has dealt with a lot more instability in his organization, coaches, and with his team.

This season was a complete rebuild of the offense and learning a new system for Baker, so large swings between good games and bad ones were to be expected, and so his stats reflect that. Another thing that's been helping him indirectly is that Stefanski is using Kareem Hunt much better than Kitchens did last season. Hunt last season was an afterthought for Freddie and the offense. This season Stefanski is putting Hunt in good positions to succeed, and Baker is finding him for positive plays often. But just reviewing the stats, it's been an up-and-down year for Hunt as well, but recently he's been more involved in the passing game.

So, in short, I think Allen has benefited from both the stability he's enjoyed year-to-year, and the addition of Diggs. Neither of which Baker has had the luxury of to date. Especially from a coaching/system standpoint.

And none of this touches on relative strength of opponents, which I don't really want to get into here. For the sake of argument, we'll call it close enough.

Which is just another example of why total stats aren't the be-all and end-all of understanding what's really going on in a game or in a season or whatever.
[Reply]
tredadda 01:15 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
I literally do not remember any of the game prior to William's 4th quarter TD to go up 24-20. It's blacked out in my brain.
How could you forget Wasp?
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tredadda 01:21 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Allen has the stats, no question.

And we'll skip the dumb plays both QBs have a tendency to make too regularly.

I'm talking about things like pre-snap reads, blocking adjustments, accuracy, understanding ball placement, and so forth.

Allen is a great, but still fairly raw talented QB. Kind of in the Tannehill mold, but better arm strength, arm talent, and even better runner. Where Allen falls short is mostly between his ears, and maybe to a degree absolute accuracy.

Baker obviously isn't the same kind of athlete, and doesn't have Josh's arm strength. But he is more accurate with tight window throws, exhibits better timing, and throws with more anticipation.

If all we did was look at off-schedule throws, Allen would probably win there as well due mostly to his crazy arm talent/strength, but most passing plays in the NFL are either timing/rhythm plays, or reads from the pocket, which is where Baker shows more competence, both in orchestrating his offense and throwing accurately on time and with anticipation. Though if you get some pressure on him, a lot of that goes out the window. Or up until Monday night this seemed to be mostly true.

Again, we're not talking about pure stats now, we're talking about how comfortable both QBs look from the pocket on typical passing downs.

Now, I do believe that Allen can and probably will mature into a better pure passer, so my opinion might shift next season or whatever.

This shouldn't be that much of surprise, considering their relative experience at the position from their college careers up to now. What's surprising to me is the big improvement Josh has made from last season to this one. Though having Diggs as his safety blanket has likely made the biggest difference for Allen statistically.

Anyway right now, Baker looks more like a true NFL QB than Allen does.
A couple of thoughts. I don't think Allen will greatly improve on accuracy unless the system masks it well. Usually its hard to train and improve on accuracy, either you have it or you don't. Also if you could combine Allen's arm and athleticism with Mayfield's mind and accuracy you would have the 2nd best young QB in the league.
[Reply]
daquix 01:22 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Brian Daboll. He has created an offense to max Allen positives and limit the negatives. Allen is generally throwing to his first read or check down.
If Daboll made an MVP candidate QB out of 1st read QB, then he is an Andy Reid level offensive genius.

PS, you have no idea what you're talking about...

Highest PFF Passing Grade when forced beyond their first read:
�� Josh Allen
�� Deshaun Watson
�� Matt Ryan pic.twitter.com/Nxfs1rWDav

— PFF (@PFF) December 4, 2020

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daquix 01:24 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by tredadda:
Also if you could combine Allen's arm and athleticism with Mayfield's mind and accuracy you would have the 2nd best young QB in the league.
Just FYI...

Josh Allen: 69%
Baker Mayfield: 62%
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daquix 01:25 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Well, let's see.

Allen has been playing with the same HC and OC for awhile now. So he has the advantage of stability.

For a season Allen had the advantage of a better OL, and this season he has the advantage of Diggs, who's been effective hiding some of Allen's inaccuracy and timing issues.

Meanwhile Baker has already been through three HCs, and I don't know how many OCs, so multiple systems.

Baker went through last season with a pretty bad OL. At least on passing snaps. And Freddie Kitchens' OCing gaffes every game. Bottom line, Baker has dealt with a lot more instability in his organization, coaches, and with his team.

This season was a complete rebuild of the offense and learning a new system for Baker, so large swings between good games and bad ones were to be expected, and so his stats reflect that. Another thing that's been helping him indirectly is that Stefanski is using Kareem Hunt much better than Kitchens did last season. Hunt last season was an afterthought for Freddie and the offense. This season Stefanski is putting Hunt in good positions to succeed, and Baker is finding him for positive plays often. But just reviewing the stats, it's been an up-and-down year for Hunt as well, but recently he's been more involved in the passing game.

So, in short, I think Allen has benefited from both the stability he's enjoyed year-to-year, and the addition of Diggs. Neither of which Baker has had the luxury of to date. Especially from a coaching/system standpoint.

And none of this touches on relative strength of opponents, which I don't really want to get into here. For the sake of argument, we'll call it close enough.

Which is just another example of why total stats aren't the be-all and end-all of understanding what's really going on in a game or in a season or whatever.
This season, the Browns O-Line is much better than Buffalo's.

So for this season, the reason Allen has more yards, TD's, long passes, completion %, and literally every passing statistic is because of coaching stability?
[Reply]
tredadda 01:28 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by daquix:
Just FYI...

Josh Allen: 69%
Baker Mayfield: 62%
I believe the system impacts his accuracy. He was in the 50% range in year 1 and 2.
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Megatron96 01:29 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by tredadda:
A couple of thoughts. I don't think Allen will greatly improve on accuracy unless the system masks it well. Usually its hard to train and improve on accuracy, either you have it or you don't. Also if you could combine Allen's arm and athleticism with Mayfield's mind and accuracy you would have the 2nd best young QB in the league.
Ha, can you imagine Baker's face on Allen's body? Made me laugh.

Yeah, for the most part I agree; NFL QBs trying to change fundamentals about their throwing motion almost never end well. For the msot part, you either are accurate or you're not.

But we've heard Mahomes tell his story about how he decided to make himself more consistent and accurate by working on his footwork, and it seems to have worked for him. And a few other QBs have done it as well, so Allen could improve there. Although one of the bigger issues for Allen is his sheer size and height. It just takes him longer and more spacer is needed if he wants to adjust his feet than for a more typical QB.

It's the same issue Cam had when he had Norv Turner as his OC. Norv 'fixed' a lot of Cam's problems with inaccuracy by getting Cam to get his feet set early. But when Cam had to improv to throw a short/intermediate crosser for example, he often couldn't get his feet shifted fast enough and ended up throwing from a flat-footed platform, which caused a lot of those passes to either sail or be well behind his receivers.

Allen is of the same height and build as Cam so I think probably he'll always have similar issues, but he might be able to fix it. Peyton did.
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daquix 01:30 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by tredadda:
I believe the system impacts his accuracy. He was in the 50% range in year 1 and 2.
For his career he is now 61%.

It's clear that a lot of Chiefs fans don't watch Bills games lol

This is why his completion % was so bad his first year and a half (and its also why the Bills traded for Diggs)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGAXQFvwhXY
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Megatron96 01:33 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by daquix:
This season, the Browns O-Line is much better than Buffalo's.

So for this season, the reason Allen has more yards, TD's, long passes, completion %, and literally every passing statistic is because of coaching stability?
And Diggs. Can't forget about one of best receivers in the league. Top-3? Allen throws a bad ball, Diggs goes and gets it on a regular basis, so stat-wise a catch is a catch. But I've watched several throws where my first thought was "why didn't he throw that ball with a little lead and give Diggs a chance to run with it?" Or, "why didn't Allen throw that slightly to his back shoulder and make that a much easier/safer catch?"

And when I compare last season's stats, to this season, it's seems pretty clear a significant reason for Allen's jump in %, TDs, etc., is all about Diggs.
[Reply]
daquix 01:36 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
And Diggs. Can't forget about one of best receivers in the league. Top-3? Allen throws a bad ball, Diggs goes and gets it on a regular basis, so stat-wise a catch is a catch. But I've watched several throws where my first thought was "why didn't he throw that ball with a little lead and give Diggs a chance to run with it?" Or, "why didn't Allen throw that slightly to his back shoulder and make that a much easier/safer catch?"

And when I compare last season's stats, to this season, it's seems pretty clear a significant reason for Allen's jump in %, TDs, etc., is all about Diggs.
Allen has more yards, TD's, completion %, wins, etc because of coaching and Diggs.

Baker has it pretty rough with OBJ, Jarvis Landry, Njoku etc.
[Reply]
tredadda 01:37 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by daquix:
For his career he is now 61%.

It's clear that a lot of Chiefs fans don't watch Bills games lol

This is why his completion % was so bad his first year and a half (and its also why the Bills traded for Diggs)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGAXQFvwhXY
Why would we? Its not like they are TV all the time.
[Reply]
Basileus777 01:38 PM 12-16-2020
Originally Posted by notorious:
I believe the Chiefs have reached the point where if they lose it's because they fucked up on multiple levels.

The only game I've watched where they truly deserved to lose was in the SB. San Fran had whooped them for 3 1/2 quarters until history happened.
Why do people always forget that the first half of the Superbowl was evenly played and not dominated by the 49ers? San Fran whooped them for 1 1/2 quarters, not 3. Chiefs didn't deserve to lose that game, they outgained the 49ers.
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