Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi:
Weird how everyone is hitting .400 in Memphis and can’t hit for dick in the majors. Oh wait, no it’s not, Mabry just sucks.
Mabry probably sucks, yes.
But O'Neill was always going to have issues at the big league level because he has holes all over his swing and Kelly showed serious regression even in AAA this year. Last year I said there was a good chance that Kelly's ceiling was maybe Tucker Barnhart and frankly his ABs this year have suggested that his ceiling may be more like Francisco Pena as a catch and throw backup. He looks baaaaaad and his exposure to Mabry hasn't been enough to create that. Meanwhile Bader's turned himself into a pretty damn versatile offensive weapon and Paul DeJong has done more than I expected.
Some of the offense goes at Mabry's feet, to be sure, but some of it's just a talent issue. And while there are guys like Adams who has hit every place he's been where Mabry wasn't responsible for him, both majors and minors, Grichuk and Diaz have been pretty much shit outside of STL as well. Every bad hitter on his watch hasn't been his fault and he isn't completely without players that have succeeded under him. Hell, Heyward hit better under Mabry than he's hit in Chicago by a ton.
That said, I do think firing Mabry should happen - because at this level I need a reason to keep you rather than a reason to fire you and Mabry's gone 5+ years without giving me good enough reasons to keep him. But I think you're probably just going to get a temporary spike before another lull. You can't turn chicken shit into chicken salad and increasingly I think that's what Mabry is working with.
As advanced as the Cardinals have been in finding under the radar arms, they've been equally behind at finding hitters and it's been a system-wide issue. If the dude somehow manages to fuck up Knizner, that's about all I'd need to see. Kizner's just a natural hitter; a lot like Allen Craig. He has the best chance to be a 4+ win player of any of the offensive guys in the system, IMO. You've gotta go all the way down to Palm Beach and look at guys like Dylan Carlson and Evan Mendoza before you see another shot at a real difference maker, IMO. Arozarena and Mercado could maybe become 3+ win players but they're gonna do that in a much different way; similar to Heyward in that they'll derive half or more of their value from defense and baserunning.
In terms of pure hitters, the system just hasn't given Mabry much to work with. And when you have guys like Wong looking like a light bulb went on in 2017 then he shows up in 2018 and can't make solid contact...I have a hard time saying that Mabry ruined him when it was under Mabry that his approach made such great strides last year.
The coaching may well be lacking but the talent is as well. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
You can acquire a 25 yr old HoF talent and pay the man what he's worth to help close that gap.
Or you can acknowledge that you can't hang with some teams that are not only producing hitters, but have genuine front of the rotation arms. Just throwing more high-end arms into the damn bullpen doesn't help the Cardinals move up a tier. It just makes them slightly better situated in the squishy middle (y'know, like adding Kareem Hunt to an offense helmed by Alex Smith).
It just frustrates the shit out of me when we keep 'dry powder' and don't get guys like Juan Soto signed in 2015, then 'blow it up' in the international period in 2016 but STILL don't get any high ceiling bats brought on. The year they go 'all out' they bring back Jonathan Machado as their prime return? And then come up short on Luis Robert.
The Cardinals have taken a penny-wise, pound foolish approach to developing bats in-house. They've focused too many times on sign-ability in the draft and pissed away their big foray into the international market by once again engaging in half-measures. But at least they have Jose Adolis Garcia regressing in AAA at 25 yrs old, so that's nice.
This is a bit of a question of arbitrage. If you know you can't develop hitters (and lord, I hope they know this) but have a seemingly limitless supply of pitchers, maybe you ought go ahead and move some of those pitchers for the hitters you lack. Yes, playing to your strengths is a wortwhile endeavor but eventually you reach the point of diminishing returns and I think we're nearing that point. It's time to reallocate some resources to their areas of greatest need.
Hey, I'm all about turning some of the pitching into Manny.
But I'm not the Gm, thankfully, and it's not likely IMO. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Mabry probably sucks, yes.
But O'Neill was always going to have issues at the big league level because he has holes all over his swing and Kelly showed serious regression even in AAA this year. Last year I said there was a good chance that Kelly's ceiling was maybe Tucker Barnhart and frankly his ABs this year have suggested that his ceiling may be more like Francisco Pena as a catch and throw backup. He looks baaaaaad and his exposure to Mabry hasn't been enough to create that. Meanwhile Bader's turned himself into a pretty damn versatile offensive weapon and Paul DeJong has done more than I expected.
Some of the offense goes at Mabry's feet, to be sure, but some of it's just a talent issue. And while there are guys like Adams who has hit every place he's been where Mabry wasn't responsible for him, both majors and minors, Grichuk and Diaz have been pretty much shit outside of STL as well. Every bad hitter on his watch hasn't been his fault and he isn't completely without players that have succeeded under him. Hell, Heyward hit better under Mabry than he's hit in Chicago by a ton.
That said, I do think firing Mabry should happen - because at this level I need a reason to keep you rather than a reason to fire you and Mabry's gone 5+ years without giving me good enough reasons to keep him. But I think you're probably just going to get a temporary spike before another lull. You can't turn chicken shit into chicken salad and increasingly I think that's what Mabry is working with.
As advanced as the Cardinals have been in finding under the radar arms, they've been equally behind at finding hitters and it's been a system-wide issue. If the dude somehow manages to **** up Knizner, that's about all I'd need to see. Kizner's just a natural hitter; a lot like Allen Craig. He has the best chance to be a 4+ win player of any of the offensive guys in the system, IMO. You've gotta go all the way down to Palm Beach and look at guys like Dylan Carlson and Evan Mendoza before you see another shot at a real difference maker, IMO. Arozarena and Mercado could maybe become 3+ win players but they're gonna do that in a much different way; similar to Heyward in that they'll derive half or more of their value from defense and baserunning.
In terms of pure hitters, the system just hasn't given Mabry much to work with. And when you have guys like Wong looking like a light bulb went on in 2017 then he shows up in 2018 and can't make solid contact...I have a hard time saying that Mabry ruined him when it was under Mabry that his approach made such great strides last year.
The coaching may well be lacking but the talent is as well.
Man, I thought Allen Craig was gonna be Paul Goldschmidt before he was Paul Goldschmidt. That injury sucked. And the obvious Taveras thing just fucked up a lot of shit.
But they're gonna have to do something to compete with the higher ups in the future. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Man, I thought Allen Craig was gonna be Paul Goldschmidt before he was Paul Goldschmidt. That injury sucked. And the obvious Taveras thing just fucked up a lot of shit.
But they're gonna have to do something to compete with the higher ups in the future.
Poor Craig - dude's legs just never came back and you can't hit without a lower half.
Taveras would've been a hell of a Mabry measuring stick. He came to the bigs and showed a much longer swing than I expected and was a lot more susceptible to hard stuff than I had been led to believe. That long, loopy swing had a lot of casting in it and combined being slow with not generating a lot of authority.
But when you looked at his minor league numbers, you know there's a hitter there somewhere with the right adjustments. He knew how to approach at-bats and it wouldn't have taken a complete overhaul, just some changes in his how his hands went to the dish, IMO.
If Mabry could've have gotten him on the right track, it would've been a feather in his cap. Had he continued to struggle...well shit, Mabry's probably gone by now in an attempt to save the golden prospect.
Sadly, we'll never know. I don't believe he was the no-questions asked superstar that many others did, but I think there was a lot of good clay to work with there and we'd have had a pretty good test of Mabry's ability. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Which slapdick reliever do you think they'll trade for this year? It's a yearly theme.
AJ Ramos and Jake Diekman seem right up Moe's alley.
He could trade Nick Plummer (gotta get a former 1st rounder in there somehow) and Scott Hurst for Diekman and Jesse Chavez then peddle Jake Woodford for AJ Ramos.
2 more righties and a lefty, all three exceptionally mediocre but they've 'done it before' so Matheny will cream his jeans over them. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Poor Craig - dude's legs just never came back and you can't hit without a lower half.
Taveras would've been a hell of a Mabry measuring stick. He came to the bigs and showed a much longer swing than I expected and was a lot more susceptible to hard stuff than I had been led to believe. That long, loopy swing had a lot of casting in it and combined being slow with not generating a lot of authority.
But when you looked at his minor league numbers, you know there's a hitter there somewhere with the right adjustments. He knew how to approach at-bats and it wouldn't have taken a complete overhaul, just some changes in his how his hands went to the dish, IMO.
If Mabry could've have gotten him on the right track, it would've been a feather in his cap. Had he continued to struggle...well shit, Mabry's probably gone by now in an attempt to save the golden prospect.
Sadly, we'll never know. I don't believe he was the no-questions asked superstar that many others did, but I think there was a lot of good clay to work with there and we'd have had a pretty good test of Mabry's ability.
Actually, the Taveras stuff here is probably true. He always hit, but I dunno.
And yeah, Craig ordeal sucked. Is he still int eh league? [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
AJ Ramos and Jake Diekman seem right up Moe's alley.
He could trade Nick Plummer (gotta get a former 1st rounder in there somehow) and Scott Hurst for Diekman and Jesse Chavez then peddle Jake Woodford for AJ Ramos.
2 more righties and a lefty, all three exceptionally mediocre but they've 'done it before' so Matheny will cream his jeans over them.
How has Plummer been? Was he the first pick in 17? [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Actually, the Taveras stuff here is probably true. He always hit, but I dunno.
And yeah, Craig ordeal sucked. Is he still int eh league?
I think he's in the Padres organization now.
Originally Posted by O.city:
How has Plummer been? Was he the first pick in 17?
Still not good. He's lost 2 years to injury and was drafted as a high school pick from a cold-weather school in 2015 so he was always a loooooooong play, but things aren't looking great. I mean...I guess he's at least in full-season ball and that's worthwhile but he's not exactly excelling there. He really needed to push himself to A+ this year to keep prospect status, IMO and I don't think that's happening. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I think he's in the Padres organization now.
Still not good. He's lost 2 years to injury and was drafted as a high school pick from a cold-weather school in 2015 so he was always a loooooooong play, but things aren't looking great. I mean...I guess he's at least in full-season ball and that's worthwhile but he's not exactly excelling there. He really needed to push himself to A+ this year to keep prospect status, IMO and I don't think that's happening.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Who am I thinking of from last year?
Carlson? He was '16.
The '17 draft was when we gave up our 1st rounder for the immortal Dexter Fowler and lost a couple of 2nd rounders for the hacking scandal. That draft was essentially a non-entity. Mendoza and maybe Hurst could end up making some noise.
You may be thinking Terry Fuller. He's a GIANT of a human being who passed on a football scholarship to Clemson (IIRC) to sign. Nothing similar as a player to Fuller and was taken in the teens. If so I am contractually obligated to call you a racist. But apart from your racism, I believe Fuller is in short-season ball and that doesn't usually start until June. I don't think there are any returns from him or Delvin Perez right now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Poor Craig - dude's legs just never came back and you can't hit without a lower half.
Taveras would've been a hell of a Mabry measuring stick. He came to the bigs and showed a much longer swing than I expected and was a lot more susceptible to hard stuff than I had been led to believe. That long, loopy swing had a lot of casting in it and combined being slow with not generating a lot of authority.
But when you looked at his minor league numbers, you know there's a hitter there somewhere with the right adjustments. He knew how to approach at-bats and it wouldn't have taken a complete overhaul, just some changes in his how his hands went to the dish, IMO.
If Mabry could've have gotten him on the right track, it would've been a feather in his cap. Had he continued to struggle...well shit, Mabry's probably gone by now in an attempt to save the golden prospect.
Sadly, we'll never know. I don't believe he was the no-questions asked superstar that many others did, but I think there was a lot of good clay to work with there and we'd have had a pretty good test of Mabry's ability.
Goold told a story on the podcast about Mabry. The final game of the Brewers series we got owned by a minor league pitcher. He didn’t really have good stuff. So he asked the hitters what happened. No one would talk on the record. But off the record they said the scouting report was over 30 days old. It was his first game in the majors because he had developed a good slider. No one on the Cardinals major league team knew this.
He went to Matheny and Mabry and asked why the report was 30 days old. They got mad and said they work hard. No comment. But, they didn’t deny it. He said he was told by the players that old scouting reports happens a lot. He can’t write about it because noone wants to go on the record. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Poor Craig - dude's legs just never came back and you can't hit without a lower half.
Taveras would've been a hell of a Mabry measuring stick. He came to the bigs and showed a much longer swing than I expected and was a lot more susceptible to hard stuff than I had been led to believe. That long, loopy swing had a lot of casting in it and combined being slow with not generating a lot of authority.
But when you looked at his minor league numbers, you know there's a hitter there somewhere with the right adjustments. He knew how to approach at-bats and it wouldn't have taken a complete overhaul, just some changes in his how his hands went to the dish, IMO.
If Mabry could've have gotten him on the right track, it would've been a feather in his cap. Had he continued to struggle...well shit, Mabry's probably gone by now in an attempt to save the golden prospect.
Sadly, we'll never know. I don't believe he was the no-questions asked superstar that many others did, but I think there was a lot of good clay to work with there and we'd have had a pretty good test of Mabry's ability.
Agreed on the "can't miss" aspect. There's all that stuff about "Matheny's guys" and not getting playing time etc, but the fact is he really didn't produce in that half season he was up. Funny how there were so many whispers of Taveras for Profar that everyone was upset about, and what has Profar done? [Reply]
