We've got Jones under contract (and we should extend him ASAP).
We've got Derrick Nnadi under contract.
We've got Xavier Williams under contract.
We've got Justin Hamilton under contract.
We're losing Allen Bailey, however, so we'll need to add a piece.
OLB:
We've got a choice to make on Dee Ford coming up, but we'll likely keep him.
We've got Justin Houston under contract.
We've got Breeland Speaks under contract.
We've got Tanoh Kpassagnon under contract.
That's a pretty solid depth chart. Add a piece if the value is there but otherwise, we're set.
ILB:
We've got Anthony Hitchens under contract.
We've got Dorian O'Daniel under contract.
We've got Reggie Ragland under contract.
Niemann is under contract as well, but meh.
So adding a player or two here is probably important, but now that Sutton is utilizing the top three correctly, we're pretty solid here.
CB:
We've got Kendall Fuller under contract.
We've got Charvarius Ward under contract.
Tremon Smith is under contract as well, but meh.
This is obviously the biggest area of concern. We're going to need multiple investments at this position -- and not simply bottom of the roster stuff. Assuming we don't keep Steven Nelson, we're going to need to add a starter and depth.
S:
We've got Eric Berry under contract (LET'S JUST ASSUME HE GETS SURGERY).
We've got Daniel Sorensen under contract.
We've got Armani Watts under contract.
We've got Jordan Lucas under contract.
We've got Eric Murray under contract.
Assuming this team does what it needs to do with Berry, which is force him to get surgery, then I don't think we need to make a single addition here. (That's obviously a big if at this point, and Berry could very well retire as well.)
So we're looking at some additions in the front seven, and then some major investments at CB.
That puts us miles ahead of where we thought we were with this defense.
2019 could, somehow, be even better than 2018 was. Which, considering it's going to be the last year we'll have Mahomes on his rookie contract, puts us exactly where we need to be. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.
As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.
We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.
The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.
But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
What makes me feel better is Andy being able to find damn near anybody on offense and making them fit into his scheme nicely. We’ve seen it so many times. Albert Wilson, Cam Erving, Andrew Wylie, Austin Reiter. Even Bryan Witzmann was decent for awhile.
Really need to keep finding these value players like Ward and Lucas on the defensive side.
We just need to quit failing miserably in high picks like Kareem Hunt, Tanoh Kpassagnon and KeiVarae Russell. Not saying to draft all stars, but just getting a decent return on these guys is so valuable. A complimentary player like Conley, Robinson and Nelson is worth a lot, especially with depth. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
What makes me feel better is Andy being able to find damn near anybody on offense and making them fit into his scheme nicely. We’ve seen it so many times. Albert Wilson, Cam Erving, Andrew Wylie, Austin Reiter. Even Bryan Witzmann was decent for awhile.
Really need to keep finding these value players like Ward and Lucas on the defensive side.
We just need to quit failing miserably in high picks like Kareem Hunt, Tanoh Kpassagnon and KeiVarae Russell. Not saying to draft all stars, but just getting a decent return on these guys is so valuable. A complimentary player like Conley, Robinson and Nelson is worth a lot, especially with depth.
And soon enough, Breeland Speaks...
I don't have a problem with a flame out on a 3rd rounder and it's hard to really hold Hunt against anyone. But to speak to a different conversation regarding trade-ups - we missed Josh Jackson by one pick. Boy how nice would having him with a season under his belt be in 2019?
Those last couple of 2nd rounders are just abysmally bad picks, IMO. And that has to be the last of those we see for a bit because you can only whiff on so many of those before you have to go into FA to fill holes. And once you do that, you can't keep as many of the Hill/Jones types around anymore. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Any agent is going to use 2 franchise seasons as the starting point; that's gonna be $16 and $20 million. So you're at $18 million/season right there.
I know many don't trust him and think he's a regression candidate - he may well be. But if we don't tag him and he hits the market, his demand will be HUGE. He may be the most sought after defensive player in all of free agency. His agent knows that and will set his demands accordingly.
If we got him at $16 million in AAV, we'd be damn lucky. I don't see it as being likely but I can still hope...
I know it's unlikely, but I keep trying to talk myself into the fact that comparisons with tags or other OLB contracts were based on multiple years of performance and Ford doesn't have that. Maybe you offer him $15m per year average now and say take that or risk the tag then maybe he takes the stability, or maybe for some reason he takes a marginal discount to stay in KC.
I would say though that DeMarcus Lawrence is the stand out edge rusher this off season, He's the guy going to get 18-20m AAV for sure [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chargem:
I know it's unlikely, but I keep trying to talk myself into the fact that comparisons with tags or other OLB contracts were based on multiple years of performance and Ford doesn't have that. Maybe you offer him $15m per year average now and say take that or risk the tag then maybe he takes the stability, or maybe for some reason he takes a marginal discount to stay in KC.
I would say though that DeMarcus Lawrence is the stand out edge rusher this off season, He's the guy going to get 18-20m AAV for sure
He has the first season on the tag so a 2nd season on the tag starts at $20 million; that leverage will stand tall in negotiations so he'll get a little higher offer because his agent knows that the 'boys will still almost certainly tag him if they have to. They are a defense and running team - they can't let him go. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Okay, looks like I've figured it out and messed w/ '18 for a single season of review.
In 2018 there were 84 UDFA rookies who graded out in AV (Pro football reference's composite measurement). They totalled 159 'points' and were led by...well of course you guessed it....Andrew Wylie and his 8. It's not a perfect analysis because Wylie was a rookie but was technically eligible for the 2017 draft. But in either event, he was a UDFA who went undrafted and thus could've been on anyone's roster.
In the 6th and 7th rounds there were 38 rookies who 'scored' and they totaled 67 'points'. If I include the 5th round that's another 29 scoring rookies and 52 points. So from the 2018 draft there were 67 rookies taken in rounds 5-7 who 'scored' via the AV system. They contributed a total of 119 points.
The UDFAs absolutely wreck those numbers.
Seriously, teams wildly under-utilize the UDFA pool and in so doing overvalue their picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Punt those picks, use them to move up in the other rounds and simply take those roster spots and allocate them to the 'winners' of the an annual roster competition among a larger pool of UDFA players.
Here's the little stat machine that can figure this out if you want to do it over a number of years.
There were 84 UDFA who graded out. Teams signed an average of about 15 UDFAs. So 1/6 UDFA played enough to even be graded. In the 5th-7th round, there were 118 players taken, of which 67 graded out, roughly 57%.
That means your late round picks are 3.5 times more likely to provide value than an UDFA. That is definitely not worth punting on. [Reply]
I love Ford, but I have a hard time paying any one player that much outside of Mahomes. I guess I'm fine with it, but it's risky if he falls off or gets hurt and we are stuck with him when all the money is tied up in one player.
That is why I'm not against finding a decent replacement through trade or FA and using the cap to bring back multiple defensive players. That could mitigate the risk and make the defense better overall. If we can keep Ford and not jeopardize the future or depth, that is fine. Just something to consider.
All I know is that we really have to make the most of our cap space while Mahomes is on his rookie contract. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.
As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.
We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.
The alternative is to simply say "Fuck it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.
But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
Yeah, the thing the "cap is going up" crew never takes into account is that if the dudes that need to walk walk, they're still going to have to be replaced. And those are going to be replaced. And in the cases of dudes like Nelson, it's going to be with a rookie or for more money.
But yeah, that thread I posted about paying dudes top tier contracts was fucking eye opening. There are a fuckload of dudes making WAAAAAY too much money. I still contend you need to look at it as production per unit salary cap. Ford is making a case. He's stayed healthy all year.
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
There were 84 UDFA who graded out. Teams signed an average of about 15 UDFAs. So 1/6 UDFA played enough to even be graded. In the 5th-7th round, there were 118 players taken, of which 67 graded out, roughly 57%.
That means your late round picks are 3.5 times more likely to provide value than an UDFA. That is definitely not worth punting on.
Yeah that didn't pass the sniff test. If you can get those guys in UDFA, take them with the pick. That's not to say I don't disagree with DJLN. I have 0 problems flipping a 5th or less to move up and increase the probability of your guys hitting. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
There were 84 UDFA who graded out. Teams signed an average of about 15 UDFAs. So 1/6 UDFA played enough to even be graded. In the 5th-7th round, there were 118 players taken, of which 67 graded out, roughly 57%.
That means your late round picks are 3.5 times more likely to provide value than an UDFA. That is definitely not worth punting on.
Raw numbers are more critical than ratios with UDFAs because you can just sift through them. You can bring in a slew of those guys; you cite the average but I'm saying that just being average in that regard is under-utilizing the process. That's precisely my point - the denominator can just be made large enough to wash out the ratio.
It's not that they're more likely to hit but rather that they're easier to throw numbers at. You can take your 3 picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th if you want. I'll take those 3 picks, bundle them into a 4th rounder (roughly equal 'draft chart value') and then use the remaining roster spots and practice time to go get UDFA's and sift through that pile to find someone that can be just as productive.
My 4th rounder and spare UDFAs is going to be more likely to contribute than your 5-6-7 rounders IF I'm willing to do the spadework of sifting through that pile and finding someone. And I know that's more difficult than ever given the limits on practice time but I think that's an area where an experienced, excellent coaching staff can be further leveraged to a team's advantage. I think our staff can/should be better at finding the gems in those pools than most and with that being the case, I think we should be more aggressive in pursuing those kinds of guys. [Reply]
I think we would be foolish not to tag Ford, especially since he appears to be fine playing on it. You would think his agent would be pushing him hard to test the market, because as mentioned earlier there is a ton of FA money and he would get PAID.
I think teams, especially teams like the Chiefs, need to use their FA money to secure players like Hill, Jones, and Ford, and try to find some deals to add depth. [Reply]
That 'report' (sigh...it's come to this; baselessly expounding on an uncorroborated tweet is now a 'report' for all intents and purposes) doesn't provide enough context to matter.
Because it doesn't do anything to clear up whether or not that means they're leaning towards negotiating a long-term deal or not.
Does anyone here want to make a bet on whether or not he reaches the open market? Anyone at all? Of course not - because if they can't get him re-signed, there's nobody else to actually use the tag on. And if their plan is to let him walk rather than re-sign him, why on God's green earth would they not tag him and trade him? Because OF COURSE he'll have a market as a trade asset on the tag.
That snippet is just pretty much useless and doesn't make any sense on its face. I am 100% certain they'll either extend him or tag him. There's no way they just let him get to FA and take a 3rd rounder in 2020 as a comp pick in exchange when they can easily get a 2nd and potentially a 1st for him in the upcoming draft. [Reply]
Seriously, teams wildly under-utilize the UDFA pool and in so doing overvalue their picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Punt those picks, use them to move up in the other rounds and simply take those roster spots and allocate them to the 'winners' of the an annual roster competition among a larger pool of UDFA players.
Here's the little stat machine that can figure this out if you want to do it over a number of years.
Originally Posted by WilliamTheIrish:
This thinking is very similar to the Jimmy Johnson approach that built the Cowboy dynasty. And how they found Leon Lett.
The Herschel Walker trade built the Cowboys dynasty. [Reply]
Fuck FA. Re-sign and extend your playmakers, let guys go that aren't worth their cap # (guys like Sorensen) and draft to re-stock. 2nd tier FA's maybe, to fill spots and compete with the young guys and draftees. Keep the core of the offense intact for the next several seasons and draft defense and o-line. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I'm kind of leaning towards this-
Fuck FA. Re-sign and extend your playmakers, let guys go that aren't worth their cap # (guys like Sorensen) and draft to re-stock. 2nd tier FA's maybe, to fill spots and compete with the young guys and draftees. Keep the core of the offense intact for the next several seasons and draft defense and o-line.
I'm not sure I'd even limit it to 'playmakers' though it tends to work out the same way. Right now I like to look at guys who are simply a little unique.
For instance, Houston is a great player who's been huge for us in this run...but he's not truly a unique guy at this stage in his career. Meanwhile Dee Ford has a first step and get off that nobody in the league really has.
Sammy Watkins is a very good player when healthy but he doesn't have a standout tool; he's just very good in many ways. Meanwhile Tyreek Hill has Tyreek Hill speed.
Chris Jones isn't exactly unique because he exists in a world where Aaron Donald is a thing. But without Aaron Donald, Chris Jones would be something of a unicorn in his own right.
Target those guys who present novel matchup problems first. Get them extended and then look at how you keep the guys who do the same things as everyone else but maybe a little bit better (Fuller, Watkins, Houston, Berry). You'll be able to keep some of those guys still, but not all of them. The guys to make sure you do not lose are the ones that just create uniquely difficult matchups by virtue of some standout skill, IMO. [Reply]