We've got Jones under contract (and we should extend him ASAP).
We've got Derrick Nnadi under contract.
We've got Xavier Williams under contract.
We've got Justin Hamilton under contract.
We're losing Allen Bailey, however, so we'll need to add a piece.
OLB:
We've got a choice to make on Dee Ford coming up, but we'll likely keep him.
We've got Justin Houston under contract.
We've got Breeland Speaks under contract.
We've got Tanoh Kpassagnon under contract.
That's a pretty solid depth chart. Add a piece if the value is there but otherwise, we're set.
ILB:
We've got Anthony Hitchens under contract.
We've got Dorian O'Daniel under contract.
We've got Reggie Ragland under contract.
Niemann is under contract as well, but meh.
So adding a player or two here is probably important, but now that Sutton is utilizing the top three correctly, we're pretty solid here.
CB:
We've got Kendall Fuller under contract.
We've got Charvarius Ward under contract.
Tremon Smith is under contract as well, but meh.
This is obviously the biggest area of concern. We're going to need multiple investments at this position -- and not simply bottom of the roster stuff. Assuming we don't keep Steven Nelson, we're going to need to add a starter and depth.
S:
We've got Eric Berry under contract (LET'S JUST ASSUME HE GETS SURGERY).
We've got Daniel Sorensen under contract.
We've got Armani Watts under contract.
We've got Jordan Lucas under contract.
We've got Eric Murray under contract.
Assuming this team does what it needs to do with Berry, which is force him to get surgery, then I don't think we need to make a single addition here. (That's obviously a big if at this point, and Berry could very well retire as well.)
So we're looking at some additions in the front seven, and then some major investments at CB.
That puts us miles ahead of where we thought we were with this defense.
2019 could, somehow, be even better than 2018 was. Which, considering it's going to be the last year we'll have Mahomes on his rookie contract, puts us exactly where we need to be. [Reply]
That OLB spot isn't something I'd call solid. Hopefully with an offseason Speaks is better, but I doubt Kpass is on the squad next season. He was a healthy scratch coming down the stretch. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
That OLB spot isn't something I'd call solid. Hopefully with an offseason Speaks is better, but I doubt Kpass is on the squad next season. He was a healthy scratch coming down the stretch.
Possible, but I think 28 teams in this league would probably swap their edge rusher position with ours. We've got two studs and Speaks/Kpass are not-terrible depth.
Again, I think we scoop up some talent if the value is there. But the priority #1, #2, and #3 needs to be beefing up the CB position, with some added emphasis on DL and ILB. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Possible, but I think 28 teams in this league would probably swap their edge rusher position with ours. We've got two studs and Speaks/Kpass are not-terrible depth.
Again, I think we scoop up some talent if the value is there. But the priority #1, #2, and #3 needs to be beefing up the CB position, with some added emphasis on DL and ILB.
Sure, Houston and Ford are a top 5 duo in the league, paired with Jones and that's awesome.
But Kpass isn't depth at all at this point. They don't even dress him when he's healthy at times. I think that shit has sailed.
They need to address the DL, ILB and OLB spot this offseason. They don't need stars there, but a cheap deal for Shane Ray or someone like that at OLB would be nice for some insurance. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
I wouldn't actually mind keeping Bailey around.
Nor would I but I think you'll run into the biggest problem with backloading contracts - the anchor point.
Allen Bailey's AAV over the life of his contract has been in excess of $6 million. Now for those 4 years, I don't think you've gotten $6 million/season in value. However, this season has undeniably been the best season of his career and he was paid $6 million in base salary ($8 million cap hit with his bonus). He's not going to take a pay-cut to stick around after having a career year, at least not without testing the market first.
And the market is oversaturated with cap-dollars right now. Some team will probably give him a 3 yr/$28 million deal with a $10 million signing bonus and something like 4/6/8 million salaries. That's just what's gonna happen in an environment where cap dollars are going to spike.
Now maybe his market doesn't come together and you can get him back here for 2/$12 or something like that, but it just doesn't seem likely to me and he's definitely not going to extend without hitting the market at that figure.
Having a massive human being who will simply bull-rush guards if he's isolated is a pretty neat little wrinkle on this defense but I don't think it's something we can afford to pay for. That's why I think they should've been bulking K-Pass up to play with his hand on the ground. [Reply]
I think realistically you want to come out of this offseason with the following positions:
A starting defensive end to replace Bailey.
Depth at the OLB spot.
A starting ILB opposite of Hitchens.
A starting CB opposite of Ward (who I think has starting material) and a depth CB.
The safety position is the probably the hardest to determine. I think Sorenson should be cut because his talent doesn't match his contract. Berry is the wild card because of his injury and contract. If it were up to me....I'd look for another starter and a depth piece while cutting Sorenson and Berry. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Nor would I but I think you'll run into the biggest problem with backloading contracts - the anchor point.
Allen Bailey's AAV over the life of his contract has been in excess of $6 million. Now for those 4 years, I don't think you've gotten $6 million/season in value. However, this season has undeniably been the best season of his career and he was paid $6 million in base salary ($8 million cap hit with his bonus). He's not going to take a pay-cut to stick around after having a career year, at least not without testing the market first.
And the market is oversaturated with cap-dollars right now. Some team will probably give him a 3 yr/$28 million deal with a $10 million signing bonus and something like 4/6/8 million salaries. That's just what's gonna happen in an environment where cap dollars are going to spike.
Now maybe his market doesn't come together and you can get him back here for 2/$12 or something like that, but it just doesn't seem likely to me and he's definitely not going to extend without hitting the market at that figure.
Having a massive human being who will simply bull-rush guards if he's isolated is a pretty neat little wrinkle on this defense but I don't think it's something we can afford to pay for. That's why I think they should've been bulking K-Pass up to play with his hand on the ground.
That would be my guess. They're just running into needing quite a bit this offseason. [Reply]
Originally Posted by The Pest:
I think realistically you want to come out of this offseason with the following positions:
A starting defensive end to replace Bailey.
Depth at the OLB spot.
A starting ILB opposite of Hitchens.
A starting CB opposite of Ward (who I think has starting material) and a depth CB.
The safety position is the probably the hardest to determine. I think Sorenson should be cut because his talent doesn't match his contract. Berry is the wild card because of his injury and contract. If it were up to me....I'd look for another starter and a depth piece while cutting Sorenson and Berry.
I don't see a viable path to cutting Berry if/when he fails his physical and 80% of his 2019 salary ends up guaranteed.
And I think Fuller plays enough outside in our base sets that I am comfortable considering him our CB1 with Ward as the CB2. Ideally you'd find another starting caliber CB but I don't think I want to pay what the market bears for one, especially when I'm as desperate as I am to get Jones and Hill extended. Hell, I'd sure love to lock up Fuller for the foreseeable future as well.
If you have about $25 million in cap space after tagging Ford and cutting Sorensen, you can probably just barely get those 3 guys extended (and I mean barely). Even if they have relatively paltry year 1 base salries, they're gonna still carry $6-8 million cap hits when you spread those signing bonuses over 5 years. I gotta believe you're looking at at least $20 million in year 1 cap figures to get those 3 extended (and probably upwards of $70 million in cash spending by Clark to get those bonuses paid which isn't exactly a given).
I just think the idea of going out into the market and adding any key pieces is pretty damn optimistic. And you're not getting much more active in 2020 either as Houston/Berry/Watkins dropping off will pretty much pay for the inevitable raises built into the contracts for Hill, Jones and Fuller. We'd be able to move on from Hitchens at that point but it would be painful so if he's even average we'd hold onto him.
Cutting Houston, Berry and Watkins in 2020 would free up about $40 million and that should be enough to cover the massive base salary increases that you see in year 2 of those extensions. I don't see restructuring being the answer either; the money just isn't there if we hope to hold onto the 'new core' of players in their early/mid 20s. And I know Watkins is in that age range himself but injuries and likely earning potential just makes holding onto him incredibly unlikely, IMO. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
That would be my guess. They're just running into needing quite a bit this offseason.
Welcome to life as a talented team in a cap league, man.
It's going to be like this every year. That's why I always thought the "Dorsey couldn't manage a cap" crowd was being unfair - the cap is difficult to navigate because agents and players know how much money is out there to be spent and do everything they can to ensure they get as big a cut of it as they can.
Afterall, if we won't pay them, someone else will.
It's just reality. Sometimes you gotta coach up cheap players or hide them with scheme. I'd say we have quite a few needs right this very minute and we still went 12-4. With a full allotment of picks and a slow accumulation of young depth under this regime, I think we're in a good situation to be even better next season than we are now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I don't see a viable path to cutting Berry if/when he fails his physical and 80% of his 2019 salary ends up guaranteed.
And I think Fuller plays enough outside in our base sets that I am comfortable considering him our CB1 with Ward as the CB2. Ideally you'd find another starting caliber CB but I don't think I want to pay what the market bears for one, especially when I'm as desperate as I am to get Jones and Hill extended. Hell, I'd sure love to lock up Fuller for the foreseeable future as well.
If you have about $25 million in cap space after tagging Ford and cutting Sorensen, you can probably just barely get those 3 guys extended (and I mean barely). Even if they have relatively paltry year 1 base salries, they're gonna still carry $6-8 million cap hits when you spread those signing bonuses over 5 years. I gotta believe you're looking at at least $20 million in year 1 cap figures to get those 3 extended (and probably upwards of $70 million in cash spending by Clark to get those bonuses paid which isn't exactly a given).
I just think the idea of going out into the market and adding any key pieces is pretty damn optimistic. And you're not getting much more active in 2020 either as Houston/Berry/Watkins dropping off will pretty much pay for the inevitable raises built into the contracts for Hill, Jones and Fuller. We'd be able to move on from Hitchens at that point but it would be painful so if he's even average we'd hold onto him.
Cutting Houston, Berry and Watkins in 2020 would free up about $40 million and that should be enough to cover the massive base salary increases that you see in year 2 of those extensions. I don't see restructuring being the answer either; the money just isn't there if we hope to hold onto the 'new core' of players in their early/mid 20s. And I know Watkins is in that age range himself but injuries and likely earning potential just makes holding onto him incredibly unlikely, IMO.
I don't know if there are any FAs that I would be looking at bringing in right now anyways.
And I'm still torn on tagging Ford or trying to give him a Watkins type deal where you can get out in year 3. [Reply]
