Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla:
Isn't that the argument for taking a Rule 5 guy (for absolutely nothing)? I get the developmental delay, but it's still a good asset.
Get the Rule 5 guy - don't get him through the Rule 5.
The developmental delay could sabotage the 'good asset' and make him simply organizational chaff that you push at least a year and generally 2 years further behind.
The Padres know they're at risk of losing him. They know there are teams with the mind-set you are suggesting who will just take him to bury him 'cheap'. They'll take a hell of a lot less than his real value for him - they'll take his 'arbitrage' value, so to speak.
Let's say on a 0-100 scale the Padres look at Ruiz as a guy with a 'true' value of, say, 60 'points'. But they think there's a 40% chance they lose him to the Rule 5. So they say "well that's a 60 point asset with a 60% chance of us retaining him so his 'true' value is really only about 36 points..."
So the Royals find a guy with a 40 point value, flip him the Padres way, put Ruiz on the 40 and option him so they can give him the best chance of actually becoming a real long-term asset. That is, presuming that the Royals see Ruiz as a 60 point piece in their own right.
I'm not saying organizations should hoard all their pieces - I'm saying that they should leverage them better. [Reply]
The Padres left him unprotected because as an NL team what are they gonna do with him? He has no real position right now and is a defensive liability and the position he plays he is not gonna be at the MLB level on their team.
I mean honestly if they don't lose him they might wanna see if he can play a Corner OF spot. [Reply]
Nov. 22: Second baseman Whit Merrifield has been an under-the-radar star with the Royals for several years, but the Cubs might try to bring him into the spotlight.
MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports that Chicago is showing “continued interest” in trading for Merrifield, who just completed the first season of the four-year, $16.25 million extension he signed with Kansas City at the beginning of 2019. Merrifield remains cheap even after signing that extension (he’ll make $5 million in ’20), and the Cubs could be in the market for a middle infielder to slot next to Javier Báez.
Merrifield, 30, continued to be an accomplished hitter at the plate (Major League-most 206 hits and 10 triples) and versatile in the field this year, logging 77 games in the outfield along with 82 at second base. He’s also a consistent contact hitter, which is a skill the Cubs generally lacked during their 2019 offensive struggles.
Send over Hoerner and Amaya and you have yourself a deal. Hoerner is 22 and already came up at the end of last year. He slashed .282 BA .305 OBP .436 SLG .741 OPS. Hes mainly a SS, but has played 2B and CF, so he's versatile. You could put him at 2B and Mondesi at SS, so you would have your middle infield set for the forseeable future.
Amaya (20 years old) would be the perfect replacement for Salvy. Hes a couple of years from the minors and he is a stud defensively. He has a good eye too 54 BB/69 walks and with his discipline at the plate, his hit tool should play up a bit too.
Originally Posted by Wilson8:
So who would the Cubs be willing to trade?
Nico Hoerner. SS.
Miguel Amaya. C.
Brennen Davis. OF.
Brailyn Marquez. LHP.
Adbert Alzolay. RHP.
Cole Roederer. OF.
Ryan Jensen. RHP.
Aramis Ademan. SS.
I would think it would have to be a couple of good players.
Dayton needs to ask for Hoerner and Amaya. Hoerner would have to be the center piece. It makes alot of sense for both teams. If the Cubs get Whit then Hoerner is essentially blocked by Baez and Whit. So if a trade is done we almost certainly get Hoerner and a couple of guys that are further away from the majors. [Reply]
Realize that they took him in the 1st round of the 2018 draft. I thought it was a massive reach but again - they didn't. And they have the same front office staff in place.
Now that's how much they valued him BEFORE he exploded through their system in about 3 months and made the major leagues.
So all he did was go from a guy they thought more highly of than Jackson Kowar and Seth Beer to a major leaguer in the span of about a year. So it's your position that they're going to trade him AND the guy they expect to replace Willson Contreras for Whit? Absolute zero chance in hell that happens.
Now honestly, if I had Nico Hoerner and a 2 year window of contention and were offered Merrifield for him, I'd do it. I personally suspect that Hoerner is a career utility player and/or extremely ordinary regular when all is said and done.
But you know that the Cubs value him significantly higher than I do based on how they've handled him. I don't see a chance they move him for Merrifield, let alone him AND Amaya.
Honestly, I'd probably prefer Brailyn Marquez out of most of the guys they have in their system.
Lets say you could get Marquez (a big projectable lefty with plus stuff), Brennen Davis (electric tools; still a ways out) and say Ronnier Quintero (if you want a C prospect, he's a higher ceiling guy than Amaya but further away).
That's the kind of deal I'm generally suggesting when talking with Duncan. Don't fall in love with prospects lists - Nico Hoerner will cost you more than he's worth and he doesn't have the ceiling to ever move the needle for the Royals. He's just...there.
And sure, the 3 guys I suggested all have bust potential, but they're all guys with WAY more upside. They're all guys who would seem to be 'meh' returns on their face but could be major contributors. If 1 of those guys hits his top 20th percentile and the other in the top 40% or so (presuming another washes out entirely), you'll have a pretty damn nice return there. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
The Cubs LOVE Hoerner.
I don't. But they do.
Realize that they took him in the 1st round of the 2018 draft. I thought it was a massive reach but again - they didn't. And they have the same front office staff in place.
Now that's how much they valued him BEFORE he exploded through their system in about 3 months and made the major leagues.
So all he did was go from a guy they thought more highly of than Jackson Kowar and Seth Beer to a major leaguer in the span of about a year. So it's your position that they're going to trade him AND the guy they expect to replace Willson Contreras for Whit? Absolute zero chance in hell that happens.
Now honestly, if I had Nico Hoerner and a 2 year window of contention and were offered Merrifield for him, I'd do it. I personally suspect that Hoerner is a career utility player and/or extremely ordinary regular when all is said and done.
But you know that the Cubs value him significantly higher than I do based on how they've handled him. I don't see a chance they move him for Merrifield, let alone him AND Amaya.
Honestly, I'd probably prefer Brailyn Marquez out of most of the guys they have in their system.
Lets say you could get Marquez (a big projectable lefty with plus stuff), Brennen Davis (electric tools; still a ways out) and say Ronnier Quintero (if you want a C prospect, he's a higher ceiling guy than Amaya but further away).
That's the kind of deal I'm generally suggesting when talking with Duncan. Don't fall in love with prospects lists - Nico Hoerner will cost you more than he's worth and he doesn't have the ceiling to ever move the needle for the Royals. He's just...there.
And sure, the 3 guys I suggested all have bust potential, but they're all guys with WAY more upside. They're all guys who would seem to be 'meh' returns on their face but could be major contributors. If 1 of those guys hits his top 20th percentile and the other in the top 40% or so (presuming another washes out entirely), you'll have a pretty damn nice return there.
I could live with that but I don’t think the Royals would pull the trigger on it. Honestly,
I’m not sure the Cubs would, either. Marquez and Davis are going to make some offseason top 100s, I think.
They seem loathe to trade Marquez because he’s the one SP prospect in their system with legitimate ToR upside. [Reply]