The whole “Chiefs only won by x points” narrative rolling through talking head land is ridiculous. I hope we smoke these chuckleheads.
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6 of 9 ESPN experts are rolling with KC.
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Lots of teams that rarely give up big plays give up big plays to the Chiefs because of the depth of game-breaking playmakers. But it isn't just deep balls and 60+ yard plays. The Chiefs scored a lot of TDs from intermediate range this season, too.

The weather is going to suck again this time around (Freezing rain conditions) so I don't expect either team to make a bunch of hay bombing downfield.

As for doing something different, yes, the Chiefs are going to show the Bills different looks. Spagnuolo, if he's anything, is a DC who is going to show teams different things and try to be confusing and disguise what he's doing. (Unless the game is out of hand. Then he tends to go vanilla and opposing offenses usually move the ball OK).

The Chiefs' base defensive personnel is different now, too. With Sneed back, they're using Mathieu differently than in the Week 6 matchup. That's a major change in what KC shows pre-snap and what it does at the snap. Mathieu could literally have any assignement on a given play. Manned up against Diggs while the CB covering Diggs at the snap blitzes. Dropping into a deep zone. Playing joker or robber coverage over the middle. Blitzing. Spying. Forcing a pulling guard to come further outside and creating space for fellow defenders to fill the hole behind him.

I'll also push back against the assertion that week 6 game doesn't mean anything. It does. It's no guarantee things work out the same way, but it informs how individual groups match up against each other. It is informative, if not predictive.

I just did the math on this... The Chiefs are 21-25 scoring TDs in the red zone with Patrick Mahomes in his career 6 playoff games (2-3 against Cleveland last week - note that the one FG came on 1st and goal with 5 ticks on the 1st half clock; 13-15 last season; 6-7 in 2018). They've been incredibly efficient in the red zone with him at QB because they pair Reid's best creativity with Mahomes' mobility and unleash everything.

^ Note this also includes games against the 2018 Patriots and 2019 49ers, two elite defenses that matched up really well against KC.

The odds of them being suddenly really inefficient there would hinge on Mahomes being hobbled by the foot or less than normal (And there are no indications either is the case). The Bills' luck down there is, barring something really fluky, going to change. Can they survive it?
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I bet if you look at Bradys average margin of victory in the playoffs its like 4 points. We are getting shit treatment for not blowing out teams. He sure as fuck doesn't. He was a non factor last week and got the credit for the win.
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It is a conundrum for sure. When you think about teams that do the opposite and lose a bunch of 1 possession games I feel like the feedback is opposite, with praise and cliche comments like “they never quit” “they fight to the end” or “they just had some bad bounces go their way”...etc.

It is extremely hard to win games in the NFL, and even more difficult to win 14 games a season after going to the Super Bowl. This isn’t Madden. You can’t line up and beat the hell out of your opponent every week. Just doesn’t work like that.
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Keep searching for those hidden touchdowns.
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Yeah, KC was 4/5 and the lone FG came at the end to stretch it to a 10-point lead late in the 4th quarter.

Again, a defense that matches up MUCH better against KC, with a much better defensive line than the Bills, better LB, a CB just as good as White, and equivalent safeties.
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Yeah, it's such lazy "analysis" from people who aren't doing anything more than looking at a schedule, feeding their confirmation bias.
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Exactly.... that's when you saw Mahomes diving head first into 49ers defenders and a bit more creativeness overall.

And hopefully CEH is back, re: "since week 12".
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Yeah, a small cover 2 linebacker is not going to make much of a difference if Buffalo drops its safeties that deep again. We're going to run straight at them. I like Milano but we are not going to be running slow developing sweeps like Baltimore where that range comes into play.
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The Chiefs didn't have Sneed in the first game. That's a bigger difference by far. Keep reaching.
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OK...on the flip side the Bills have played far tougher defenses than the Chiefs have and a far tougher schedule in general. Additionally they are the only team that made the playoffs with a strength of victory over .500

Always can flip the coin to show the other side and that goes both ways.
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I've been telling the naysayers I come across that it should actually TERRIFY opposing teams the way we are winning close games.

Andy is playing Chess with the other coaches playing checkers for 3 quarters. Then he just walks away from the board and lets them try to figure out how to clear the board with the clock running out.
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What makes Buffalo’s schedule so much tougher? Both teams are 5-0 against top ten defenses

KC faced TB, NO, BUF, BAL

BUF faced SEA, LAR, KC

I mean you guys played the Chiefs so in a way you had a tougher schedule, but that doesn’t make you a better team seeing that you lost to us
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They won't put up 200 yards even if that happens this game, I can promise you that.

Milano is far more than that on this defense...he does it all and frees up Edmunds a lot. He is exceptional at getting through creases and into the backfield which is why the run D is a lot better with him in there. Also our best cover LB against backs and TE. That doesn't mean much against Kelce because he is probably the best TE in football or at worst tied with Kittle, but even if he can win a few routes or make a key 3rd down stop here or there it can be meaningful.

The understated point is that Milano allows the Bills D to play the way they want to play and that they have been used to playing for the last 3 years. He and Edmunds never come off the field. Without him they have to change how they do things and make personnel adjustments they don't want to make in some situations and due to this have to play differently and have the rest of the defense play different roles at times to make up for it.

So while you may not think it is a big deal because he is a small cover 2 LB, we know it is because of how the Bills have to make personnel adjustments and how other player responsibilities change when he isn't in there.
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