Originally Posted by Matter2003:
Maybe...but there is a good chance we hold you to a lot more FGs than you'd expect. Since week 12 Bills are the #1 redzone defense in the NFL and the Chiefs are the 26th Redzone offense.
This whole notion that your offense is unstoppable is a little strange considering the Bills averaged more points per game than they did. Perhaps the Bills should be considered that?
I know...I know...Allen had bad numbers in the first game. Good luck if you want to hang your hat on that one. He refused to take easy throws against 2 high safety looks and flat out missed a bunch of easy plays. Figured it out on the last scoring drive of the game for the Bills where he went 5 for 5 for 56 yards and scored in under 3 minutes but before that he had a total of 7 plays in the 2nd half. Basically, there were wide open receivers all game underneath that Allen didn't throw to, he missed a bunch of easy throws and then never had the ball the 2nd half so once he figured it out there was no time left. I don't like the odds of that happening again for the Chiefs D.
Additionally, I don't get the notion that KC has this great defense because across the board the Bills defense is better...and that includes rush defense.
I see.
The Chiefs have a better record, and beat the bills, but somehow you make an argument for the bills being a better team across the board. Makes sense.
but also, the bills gave up a lot of garbage time points because they had big leads, yet, you use a garbage time touchdown (Chiefs had a 96% win probability at the time of Buffalo's final touchdown) against the Chiefs to prove how Allen figured out the chiefs. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Matter2003:
Maybe...but there is a good chance we hold you to a lot more FGs than you'd expect. Since week 12 Bills are the #1 redzone defense in the NFL and the Chiefs are the 26th Redzone offense.
This whole notion that your offense is unstoppable is a little strange considering the Bills averaged more points per game than they did. Perhaps the Bills should be considered that?
I know...I know...Allen had bad numbers in the first game. Good luck if you want to hang your hat on that one. He refused to take easy throws against 2 high safety looks and flat out missed a bunch of easy plays. Figured it out on the last scoring drive of the game for the Bills where he went 5 for 5 for 56 yards and scored in under 3 minutes but before that he had a total of 7 plays in the 2nd half. Basically, there were wide open receivers all game underneath that Allen didn't throw to, he missed a bunch of easy throws and then never had the ball the 2nd half so once he figured it out there was no time left. I don't like the odds of that happening again for the Chiefs D.
Additionally, I don't get the notion that KC has this great defense because across the board the Bills defense is better...and that includes rush defense.
There’s a reason your Bills have to come to KC and not vice versa. The Chiefs have better depth, a better QB and more consistent team. You can shit out all of the excuses you want, the Chiefs are a flat out better team. [Reply]
Originally Posted by PunkinDrublic:
There’s a reason your Bills have to come to KC and not vice versa. The Chiefs have better depth, a better QB and more consistent team. You can shit out all of the excuses you want, the Chiefs are a flat out better team.
Exactly man. The chiefs could definitely lose, you can lose any game. But to act like the advanced metrics show that the bills are the superior team is just ridiculous [Reply]
Originally Posted by Matter2003:
Maybe...but there is a good chance we hold you to a lot more FGs than you'd expect. Since week 12 Bills are the #1 redzone defense in the NFL and the Chiefs are the 26th Redzone offense.
This whole notion that your offense is unstoppable is a little strange considering the Bills averaged more points per game than they did. Perhaps the Bills should be considered that?
I know...I know...Allen had bad numbers in the first game. Good luck if you want to hang your hat on that one. He refused to take easy throws against 2 high safety looks and flat out missed a bunch of easy plays. Figured it out on the last scoring drive of the game for the Bills where he went 5 for 5 for 56 yards and scored in under 3 minutes but before that he had a total of 7 plays in the 2nd half. Basically, there were wide open receivers all game underneath that Allen didn't throw to, he missed a bunch of easy throws and then never had the ball the 2nd half so once he figured it out there was no time left. I don't like the odds of that happening again for the Chiefs D.
Additionally, I don't get the notion that KC has this great defense because across the board the Bills defense is better...and that includes rush defense.
We had this conversation with opposing fans last year about the Chiefs' "red zone woes" down the stretch, and then the Chiefs promptly scored TDs on 13-15 red zone possessions during the playoffs, as the Chiefs broke out everything they had kept in reserve and also used Mahomes' legs as a weapon.
This is not a new trend or a Mahomes-specific trend. Reid has long trended to go vanilla in the red zone when he has a big lead in a regular season game.
Additionally, as has been mentioned in this thread, the Chiefs led the NFL in TDs from OUTSIDE the red zone, so they are less reliant on red zone conversions to TDs.
Lot of reasons from this side to be relaxed about that.
As for the Chiefs defense, on that last drive where Allen went 5-5, the Chiefs were bailing early into zone on each snap, allowing him to diagnose the zone coverage. Can't let that habit continue (and likely won't - more below).
Before that, the Chiefs were mixing up their looks a lot more. You say it was Allen not taking easy throws... I watch it and see a QB not diagnosing the easy throws available underneath.
No one here would argue the Chiefs have a dominant defense. But the idea this defense is somehow "abysmal" or that the pass D is weak is way off. That's what people have pushed back on.
This is why the return of LJ Sneed has been so impactful for KC. With him back and able to play the slot, that lets Spagnuolo use Mathieu all over the place instead of covering up the slot. This creates flexibility in drops, and makes what they're showing/who is bailing less predictive of whether its cover 1, 2, or 3.
Both teams' fanbases are confident and that's fine and to be expected. A lot of Bills fans haven't bene able to handle that confidence here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
We had this conversation with opposing fans last year about the Chiefs' "red zone woes" down the stretch, and then the Chiefs promptly scored TDs on 13-15 red zone possessions during the playoffs, as the Chiefs broke out everything they had kept in reserve and also used Mahomes' legs as a weapon.
This is not a new trend or a Mahomes-specific trend. Reid has long trended to go vanilla in the red zone when he has a big lead in a regular season game.
Additionally, as has been mentioned in this thread, the Chiefs led the NFL in TDs from OUTSIDE the red zone, so they are less reliant on red zone conversions to TDs.
Lot of reasons from this side to be relaxed about that.
As for the Chiefs defense, on that last drive where Allen went 5-5, the Chiefs were bailing early into zone on each snap, allowing him to diagnose the zone coverage. Can't let that habit continue (and likely won't - more below).
Before that, the Chiefs were mixing up their looks a lot more. You say it was Allen not taking easy throws... I watch it and see a QB not diagnosing the easy throws available underneath.
No one here would argue the Chiefs have a dominant defense. But the idea this defense is somehow "abysmal" or that the pass D is weak is way off. That's what people have pushed back on.
This is why the return of LJ Sneed has been so impactful for KC. With him back and able to play the slot, that lets Spagnuolo use Mathieu all over the place instead of covering up the slot. This creates flexibility in drops, and makes what they're showing/who is bailing less predictive of whether its cover 1, 2, or 3.
Both teams' fanbases are confident and that's fine and to be expected. A lot of Bills fans haven't bene able to handle that confidence here.
I think Chief fans over the years have been pretty realistic about team expectations and have been more likely to shit on them than pump rainbows up their ass ( see all the soandso sucks threads) , so the fact that most of us are predicting a positive result should scare the shit out of Bills fans.
I will admit I haven’t see a lot of bills games or Allen play but I have seen every game Pat has played and there is no ****ing way I would bet against him, he is a different animal and that is coming from a ultra negative, glass half empty, type of guy , so I might be underselling a bit. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Matter2003:
Maybe...but there is a good chance we hold you to a lot more FGs than you'd expect. Since week 12 Bills are the #1 redzone defense in the NFL and the Chiefs are the 26th Redzone offense.
This whole notion that your offense is unstoppable is a little strange considering the Bills averaged more points per game than they did. Perhaps the Bills should be considered that?
I know...I know...Allen had bad numbers in the first game. Good luck if you want to hang your hat on that one. He refused to take easy throws against 2 high safety looks and flat out missed a bunch of easy plays. Figured it out on the last scoring drive of the game for the Bills where he went 5 for 5 for 56 yards and scored in under 3 minutes but before that he had a total of 7 plays in the 2nd half. Basically, there were wide open receivers all game underneath that Allen didn't throw to, he missed a bunch of easy throws and then never had the ball the 2nd half so once he figured it out there was no time left. I don't like the odds of that happening again for the Chiefs D.
Additionally, I don't get the notion that KC has this great defense because across the board the Bills defense is better statistically and in almost every advanced metric...and that includes rush defense. Also includes the fact the Bills played a lot more soft coverage up big in a lot of games towards thr end of the year where teams got a bunch of cheap yards.
Since week 12 Bills are the #1 redzone defense in the NFL
Based on the QB's you played in that stretch no one here cares. Drew Lock, Broken Cam, Nick Mullens, etc.
I don't get the notion that KC has this great defense because across the board the Bills defense is better statistically
Did you forget about points allowed? That's kind of an important metric.
Pulled from final stats after KC rested their starters.
Kansas City 6th lowest points scored
Buffalo 15th lowest points scored
KC has the team that allowed the fewest points per game at this point of any remaining team in the playoffs.
We also add our best corner now to the matchup that wasn't available week 6.
We don't have a "great" defense. We have a big game defense that shows up in games like Sunday coming up. Also, Spags understands Allen better than any other DC out there and knows how to mess with your offense. We are not going to do dumb shit like the Colts and let Allen know its zone most of the game and sit there in a vanilla coverage/no pressure and get picked apart. We saw Allen throw late to his 1 read against Denver over and over and it worked because their corners were bailing. Ours will press you.
This whole notion that your offense is unstoppable
We have Patrick Mahomes who averages almost 35 points per game in the playoffs(highest in NFL history). You have Josh Allen who led his team to only 1 TD in 2 out of his 3 playoff games. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
And speaking of the red zone:
Do Bills fans REALLY believe the playoff trend for your defense - 16 points allowed on 8 possessions - is going to continue?
That's unsustainable against average teams, let alone against an elite NFL offense.
Depends. There are only 2 games left. Over a full season of games, no. Is it possible over this game and if we manage to pull an upset the next game? Of course. The same way if you flip a coin 10 times you can get 7 heads but if you flipped it 100 times you would be more likely to be around 50/50. KC could have poor execution in the redzone also. It's a single game, they could be off also.
As far as scoring from outside the RedZone, the Bills rarely give up big plays. Anything is possible, but the likelihood is that they force the Chiefs to be patient while taking their shots at being aggressive at times. Can they hit big plays? Sure...anything can happen in a single game. Blown coverages, a guy falling down, great individual play by Hill or Kelce, etc...but on balance the Bills are a very disciplined defense that will not beat themselves and will make a team earn everything they get.
And to your point on Allen not recognizing things in that game, yes...that was a point I made earlier. Even he admitted that in the Tennessee and KC games they hadn't really faced those looks and didn't know how to attack it properly. But they figured it out as the year went on...San Fran, Denver and New England all tried to do that and got smoked. If KC doesn't have something new and isn't able to get pressure on Allen I have a hard time believing that is going to work again. That is kind of the whole point...teams evolve and improve as the year goes on...or get worse sometimes...what happened in week 6 will not have any bearing on the outcome of this game.
I still think KC has a good chance to win...probably 60/40 if I had to guess. But it's not going to be some cakewalk if they do. And it won't be some huge fluke if the Bills win. This is a very good team that is peaking at the right time, especially on defense. But I don't see a cakewalk for the Bills either if they win. I see a hard fought, competitive game that might come down to who has the ball last. Both QBs are exceptional in those situations. [Reply]
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
The gold end zones were awful.
I thought it was a cool historical tribute. And it turned out perfect. But that kind of thing should only be a one time thing.
Man, I'm kinda sad. If it weren't for this pandemic, I would be attending my 3rd AFC Championship in a row. Prior to that, the only playoff games I had ever attended were Baltimore 2010 season and Pittsburgh 2016 season. 😞 [Reply]
I think my favorite thing about Bills fans right now is what they have done to convince themselves about their defense.
In the regular season they played one top 10 scoring offense, Seattle, since the beginning of November. After that they played the 14, 18, 21, 12, 28, 27, and 15 ranked scoring offenses. The Chiefs finished against 10, 2, 28, 15, 6, 16, and 18. Much tougher competition.
It’s no coincidence then that in the playoffs the Bills defense and team got out gained in both games against consecutive better competition. Anyone watching can see it was luck, not an improved defense that helped with those red zone scoring numbers. On the Chiefs side, they played their backup QB against a good offense for almost half the game and still had 130 more yards than the Browns. [Reply]
I don't know the stats "since week 12", but the Chiefs have averaged 3.8 red zone attempts per game and 2.2 red zone TDs per game.
So that's 13/23 in a 6 week span, which is 57%.
Ok, so they score two more TDs in that span and now it's 65%, jumping from ~20th in the league to 10th.
Ok, so they score two fewer TDs in that span and now it's 48% and now they've fallen to 3rd worst in the league in that span.
Small sample size + variables (who they played, primarily) makes the percentages a terrible stat to nitpick over the course of weeks.
And the percentages by themselves also don't take into account how reliant an offense is on getting into the red zone.... so, if the Bills score 88% of their TDs from the red zone and the Chiefs are the 6th best team in preventing red zone trips, that's a much more meaningful thing to think about than "LoOk aT tHoSe rEdzOnE sTaTs!" (apologies for the excess snark, it's pointed much more at the media than anyone here at the moment :-))
The Chiefs have given up fewer red zone TDs on the season than the Bills, because you don't get as many trips against the Chiefs.
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
I kind of hate red zone stats. (but luckily still have Chiefs stats from the Browns match up)
2020 regular season
Chiefs on offense
68% (36/53) of the Chiefs' touchdowns have come from the red zone.
Chiefs red zone offense - 14th -- 36/59 -- 61%
Bills on defense
88% (38/43) of the Bills' touchdowns against have come from the red zone.
Bills red zone defense - 28th -- 38/58 -- 65.5%
Bills on offense
75% (42/56) of their touchdowns have come from the red zone.
Bills red zone offense -- 13th -- 42/68 -- 61%
Chiefs on defense
84% (36/43) of the Chiefs' TDs against have been from the red zone.
Chiefs red zone defense 32nd -- 36/47 -- 77%
I would love to do a "most reliant on red zone touchdowns/red zone stops", but I'm using lineups.com for stats and they use Flash, so it's not easily copy/pastable... and I'm not doing all that shit manually.
The most interesting part is the Bills are tied for the most red zone attempts in the league with the Saints and have a higher percentage of relying on those attempts.... OTOH, the Chiefs defense is 6th best at preventing red zone attempts, even if teams often score once they do get there.
The Bills are middle of the pack when it comes to red zone attempts against (only a few off the Browns), but the Chiefs aren't as reliant on getting there. The stats seem to suggest you need to get down there to score, but the Browns were 37/47 (78%) in that regard, so meh.
