KANSAS CITY -- It has been a whirlwind offseason for the rebuilding Royals: New owner, new manager, coaching-staff changes,*front-office changes, a pending new TV deal.
But there hasn’t been a ton of roster movement, and there probably won’t be. The Royals did avoid arbitration with left-hander*Mike Montgomery,*signing him to a one-year, $3.1 million deal*earlier this week.
And the Royals are waiting on perennial Gold Glove winner*Alex Gordon, who officially is a free agent, as he contemplates returning for one more season.
Still, as the Royals prepare to embark for the*Winter Meetings*starting Monday in San Diego, they will have some*under-the-radar work to do*as they try to shore up a pitching staff that was the primary culprit in dragging them to 103 losses in 2019.
Here’s a look at what’s ahead for the Royals:
Club needs
Priority No. 1 will be finding some cost-efficient bullpen help. The Royals had some interest in bringing back left-hander Jake Diekman, whom they signed last offseason before dealing him to Oakland at the Trade Deadline. But Diekman landed a two-year deal with the A's this week. Expect general manager Dayton Moore to scour the market for bargains, not only for the bullpen, but perhaps for the rotation, which right now has four set starters in*Brad Keller,*Danny Duffy,*Jakob Junis*and Montgomery. Moore and his staff have a knack for finding reclamation projects -- last year’s was*Homer Bailey*-- and expect that approach to be their focus again this offseason, starting at the Winter Meetings. Moore feels comfortable with his position players, so that area is not a huge need.
Whom might they trade?
Expect all kinds of trade rumors involving*Whit Merrifield, Duffy and*Ian Kennedy. Merrifield is an affordable option for any team ($14.5 million over the next three years), and while the Royals will listen to offers on anyone, it remains unlikely they trade him unless overwhelmed. And the same goes for Duffy, who is owed just under $31 million over the next two seasons. The Royals wouldn’t mind that money coming off the books, but as with Merrifield, a trade could be a notable public-relations hit. Kennedy has one year left at $16.5 million, and the Royals would have to eat much of that salary to move him now -- they might have a better chance at the Trade Deadline.
Prospects to know
While*Bobby Witt Jr.*is the*Royals’ No. 1 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, all eyes are on the club's wave of pitching prospects, starting with right-handers*Brady Singer*(No. 2) and*Jackson Kowar*(No. 5), and left-handers*Daniel Lynch*(No. 3) and*Kris Bubic*(No. 6). The Royals won’t be dealing any of them, and they'll be hoping to stockpile even more pitching prospects, if possible, over the next year. It seems plausible that some of those pitching prospects get promoted to the big leagues this season.
Rule 5 Draft
With the No. 4 pick in the*Rule 5 Draft, the Royals will be active next Thursday. They have cleared up four roster spots, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they grabbed at least two Rule 5 picks, hoping to land another Keller like they did two years ago. The Royals did not protect power-hitting prospect*Seuly Matias*from the Rule 5 Draft, but it seems unlikely he gets taken, as he has been injured the last two seasons and hasn’t risen above Class A.
Payroll summary
Including*Jorge Soler’s potential arbitration case (or more likely, long-term deal), the Royals’ payroll for 2020 would sit around $75-80 million. The budget under new owner John Sherman hasn’t been finalized, but all signs point to him not making a big free-agent splash this offseason -- that wouldn’t make sense for a rebuilding team at least a season or two from being competitive. The Royals also need to plan on $4-6 million for Gordon if he returns. What this means is that the Royals will be searching for starting pitching or relievers who come in under $4 million. The Royals are waiting on finalization of a*new TV deal, which MLB.com has reported could bring in about $48-52 million per year, up about $25 million from 2019. But that money can’t be counted on until the deal is complete.
One question
When will the Royals be good again? Best guess is they could be able to compete for the playoffs in 2022. This season will be a struggle, simply because they won’t have the horses on the pitching staff to win consistently. The Royals are content with their positional lineup that features Soler, Merrifield,*Hunter Dozier,*Adalberto Mondesi,*Nicky Lopez*and*Salvador Perez, whose return from Tommy John surgery will be like adding a big-time free agent. But until the wave of pitching prospects makes an impact at the big league level, the Royals will not be able to compete for the American League Central title. Those prospects will begin to elevate to the Majors this season, and even more so in 2021. [Reply]
Originally Posted by OKchiefs:
Good luck waiting for Dayton Moore to actually come out ahead with a trade that helps the team. The mother fucker is so gun shy he'll just sit there and do nothing other than the minimum of drafting with our allotted picks, taking someone in rule 5, and signing a few nobodies in FA who won't last the year on the roster.
The Royals have been guilty forever of overvaluing their own prospects, even when they were good they did that a lot.
I'm going to be very honest about this, if they were savvy there are some interesting moves to be had out there this year.
Taking on Myers contract to gain some prospects is the first kind of off the wall move I see.
But what about throwing Dozier and Soler out for trades? Tons of teams are looking for 3rd base help right now and with him being cheap and controllable you might get a nice haul for him that would be worth it. [Reply]
KANSAS CITY -- It has been a whirlwind offseason for the rebuilding Royals: New owner, new manager, coaching-staff changes,*front-office changes, a pending new TV deal.
But there hasn’t been a ton of roster movement, and there probably won’t be. The Royals did avoid arbitration with left-hander*Mike Montgomery,*signing him to a one-year, $3.1 million deal*earlier this week.
And the Royals are waiting on perennial Gold Glove winner*Alex Gordon, who officially is a free agent, as he contemplates returning for one more season.
Still, as the Royals prepare to embark for the*Winter Meetings*starting Monday in San Diego, they will have some*under-the-radar work to do*as they try to shore up a pitching staff that was the primary culprit in dragging them to 103 losses in 2019.
Here’s a look at what’s ahead for the Royals:
Club needs
Priority No. 1 will be finding some cost-efficient bullpen help. The Royals had some interest in bringing back left-hander Jake Diekman, whom they signed last offseason before dealing him to Oakland at the Trade Deadline. But Diekman landed a two-year deal with the A's this week. Expect general manager Dayton Moore to scour the market for bargains, not only for the bullpen, but perhaps for the rotation, which right now has four set starters in*Brad Keller,*Danny Duffy,*Jakob Junis*and Montgomery. Moore and his staff have a knack for finding reclamation projects -- last year’s was*Homer Bailey*-- and expect that approach to be their focus again this offseason, starting at the Winter Meetings. Moore feels comfortable with his position players, so that area is not a huge need.
Whom might they trade?
Expect all kinds of trade rumors involving*Whit Merrifield, Duffy and*Ian Kennedy. Merrifield is an affordable option for any team ($14.5 million over the next three years), and while the Royals will listen to offers on anyone, it remains unlikely they trade him unless overwhelmed. And the same goes for Duffy, who is owed just under $31 million over the next two seasons. The Royals wouldn’t mind that money coming off the books, but as with Merrifield, a trade could be a notable public-relations hit. Kennedy has one year left at $16.5 million, and the Royals would have to eat much of that salary to move him now -- they might have a better chance at the Trade Deadline.
Prospects to know
While*Bobby Witt Jr.*is the*Royals’ No. 1 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, all eyes are on the club's wave of pitching prospects, starting with right-handers*Brady Singer*(No. 2) and*Jackson Kowar*(No. 5), and left-handers*Daniel Lynch*(No. 3) and*Kris Bubic*(No. 6). The Royals won’t be dealing any of them, and they'll be hoping to stockpile even more pitching prospects, if possible, over the next year. It seems plausible that some of those pitching prospects get promoted to the big leagues this season.
Rule 5 Draft
With the No. 4 pick in the*Rule 5 Draft, the Royals will be active next Thursday. They have cleared up four roster spots, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they grabbed at least two Rule 5 picks, hoping to land another Keller like they did two years ago. The Royals did not protect power-hitting prospect*Seuly Matias*from the Rule 5 Draft, but it seems unlikely he gets taken, as he has been injured the last two seasons and hasn’t risen above Class A.
Payroll summary
Including*Jorge Soler’s potential arbitration case (or more likely, long-term deal), the Royals’ payroll for 2020 would sit around $75-80 million. The budget under new owner John Sherman hasn’t been finalized, but all signs point to him not making a big free-agent splash this offseason -- that wouldn’t make sense for a rebuilding team at least a season or two from being competitive. The Royals also need to plan on $4-6 million for Gordon if he returns. What this means is that the Royals will be searching for starting pitching or relievers who come in under $4 million. The Royals are waiting on finalization of a*new TV deal, which MLB.com has reported could bring in about $48-52 million per year, up about $25 million from 2019. But that money can’t be counted on until the deal is complete.
One question
When will the Royals be good again? Best guess is they could be able to compete for the playoffs in 2022. This season will be a struggle, simply because they won’t have the horses on the pitching staff to win consistently. The Royals are content with their positional lineup that features Soler, Merrifield,*Hunter Dozier,*Adalberto Mondesi,*Nicky Lopez*and*Salvador Perez, whose return from Tommy John surgery will be like adding a big-time free agent. But until the wave of pitching prospects makes an impact at the big league level, the Royals will not be able to compete for the American League Central title. Those prospects will begin to elevate to the Majors this season, and even more so in 2021.
Why is this team so interested in bringing Gordon back? Do they think if they keep running him, Duffy and Whit out there fans will forget how much they suck?
I could easily argue they should be interested in getting rid of all those guys. [Reply]
Originally Posted by OKchiefs:
Good luck waiting for Dayton Moore to actually come out ahead with a trade that helps the team. The mother ****er is so gun shy he'll just sit there and do nothing other than the minimum of drafting with our allotted picks, taking someone in rule 5, and signing a few nobodies in FA who won't last the year on the roster.
This. He rarely pushes to accelerate the rebuild... he is so secure in his job that he seems content to let the process unfold over 10 years. I get frustrated with the notion they put out often of "when we are ready to contend in 2021/22," in that it punts away years at a time. I know we can't make signings (spoiler: we can), but christ let's be proactive... [Reply]
Originally Posted by nychief:
This. He rarely pushes to accelerate the rebuild... he is so secure in his job that he seems content to let the process unfold over 10 years. I get frustrated with the notion they put out often of "when we are ready to contend in 2021/22," in that it punts away years at a time. I know we can't make signings (spoiler: we can), but christ let's be proactive...
There is a difference in feeling pressure in not obviously...
San Diego is making moves because their GM has basically been told if they don't contend this year he's toast. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Why is this team so interested in bringing Gordon back? Do they think if they keep running him, Duffy and Whit out there fans will forget how much they suck?
I could easily argue they should be interested in getting rid of all those guys.
Lot of 10-year-old kids in the stands wearing their jerseys. Can't break their little hearts. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
There is a difference in feeling pressure in not obviously...
San Diego is making moves because their GM has basically been told if they don't contend this year he's toast.
I'm going to go ballistic if Moore is signed to an extension in the process of probably heading towards our 3rd straight 100 loss season. How long of a leash can a guy get?
I sure hope the Chiefs win something because also being a Royals and Mizzou fan is depressing. [Reply]
I’d jump at a trade for Wil Myers as a way to buy some prospects. Whether Moore can clear it with Sherman remains to be seen.
But yeah, if you can add a few of the Padres prospects in the 10-20 range, it’s well worth the hefty price, IMO.
Gabriel Arias (a SS who went .302/.339/.470 at high a last year) and Buddy Reed (exceptional athlete who struggled with the bat at AAA last year but has Lorenzo Cain qualities) would be a nice combo.
The Royals could give Myers consistent everyday ABs at 1b and probably get the maximum value out of him, too.
If they played him at 1B everyday, you could dream on getting something like what he produced in 2016 and 2017 - when he slashed .251/.335/.462 across 1200 ABs with 58 HR and 48 SB in a horrible hitters park.
He was roughly a 10 percent above average hitter and stayed healthy. That’s not worth 22 million a year, but you can get some value out of it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I’d jump at a trade for Wil Myers as a way to buy some prospects. Whether Moore can clear it with Sherman remains to be seen.
But yeah, if you can add a few of the Padres prospects in the 10-20 range, it’s well worth the hefty price, IMO.
Gabriel Arias (a SS who went .302/.339/.470 at high a last year) and Buddy Reed (exceptional athlete who struggled with the bat at AAA last year but has Lorenzo Cain qualities) would be a nice combo.
The Royals could give Myers consistent everyday ABs at 1b and probably get the maximum value out of him, too.
If they played him at 1B everyday, you could dream on getting something like what he produced in 2016 and 2017 - when he slashed .251/.335/.462 across 1200 ABs with 58 HR and 48 SB in a horrible hitters park.
He was roughly a 10 percent above average hitter and stayed healthy. That’s not worth 22 million a year, but you can get some value out of it.
Reed is available in the rule 5 draft, they didn't protect. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
duncan agrees with my idea lol, I'm kinda surprised honestly.
The Dodgers (unsurprisingly) have been clever enough to do some stuff like that for the last several years.
The Braves of all teams kinda kicked it off in 2015 when they took on Bronson Arroyo (who had TJ surgery and had all but announced his retirement already) in a deal along with Touki Toussaint in exchange for an organizational arm.
They effectively bought the D-Backs 1st round pick from the previous season and did so without having to pay his $2.7 million signing bonus to boot.
As it turns out, the dude can't throw strikes so he may just never amount to anything, but he was a top 100 prospect when traded and I believe ended up working his way up to top 50 status because of his velocity. He was an awfully nice get for merely the burden of taken on a couple months of Arroyo's deal and paying his buyout.
I really don't understand how a team can sit on an $85 million payroll and NOT be looking to do some stuff like that. I get the whole "we'll be just as bad and far away from contention at $110 million than we will at $85, so why spend it just to spend it?" thing. But that doesn't sell here - you're spending it with the express purpose of getting better long-term.
That's exactly how rebuilding teams SHOULD be using payroll flexibility. Especially if it's a team like the Royals that can't claim to be holding onto 'dry powder' that they'll use for a FA splash in the future. No - they really won't be. Use it now to get some young assets. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
duncan agrees with my idea lol, I'm kinda surprised honestly.
It’s no different than eating all of Kennedy’s salary to pick up Joey Wentz last year.
Myers’ is a tough buy because of the size of the commitment, but there are ways to offset it. The Padres are going for it this year. I bet they’d take Kennedy back to strengthen their pen and pay all his salary this year, and kick in either some cash or sweeten the prospect return.
I like outside the box shit like that.
Going outside the box to acquire talent is how the Royals won their last World Series. It’s how they will have to win their next one, too. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
The Dodgers (unsurprisingly) have been clever enough to do some stuff like that for the last several years.
The Braves of all teams kinda kicked it off in 2015 when they took on Bronson Arroyo (who had TJ surgery and had all but announced his retirement already) in a deal along with Touki Toussaint in exchange for an organizational arm.
They effectively bought the D-Backs 1st round pick from the previous season and did so without having to pay his $2.7 million signing bonus to boot.
As it turns out, the dude can't throw strikes so he may just never amount to anything, but he was a top 100 prospect when traded and I believe ended up working his way up to top 50 status because of his velocity. He was an awfully nice get for merely the burden of taken on a couple months of Arroyo's deal and paying his buyout.
I really don't understand how a team can sit on an $85 million payroll and NOT be looking to do some stuff like that. I get the whole "we'll be just as bad and far away from contention at $110 million than we will at $85, so why spend it just to spend it?" thing. But that doesn't sell here - you're spending it with the express purpose of getting better long-term.
That's exactly how rebuilding teams SHOULD be using payroll flexibility. Especially if it's a team like the Royals that can't claim to be holding onto 'dry powder' that they'll use for a FA splash in the future. No - they really won't be. Use it now to get some young assets.
It's NBA style of payroll management. But the MLB Players Union is too fucking stupid to realize how much a salary cap would help them. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry:
It's NBA style of payroll management. But the MLB Players Union is too fucking stupid to realize how much a salary cap would help them.
Said that yesterday, in this very thread I believe.
It blows my mind that the MLBPA continues to be so dogmatic about the cap that they can't understand how a cap can be offered and used to their long-term advantage.
I really think they've allowed agents like Boras to poison them. A cap WON'T help Boras and it won't help the top 10% of the players in the game. Those guys will be the ones that take the haircuts. Because if there were no cap, LeBron James would be making significantly more than he is. And frankly I suspect it would inure to the benefit of someone like Mahomes as well.
But when you trade the cap for a tied revenue% and hard floors, baseballs middle class benefits. And ESPECIALLY so if you can negotiate a restricted free agent sort of structure that allows guys to get to FA a little earlier, if only RFA status like in the NFL, NBA and NHL.
They just keep focusing on the wrong fights, IMO. [Reply]