Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
So does Cuthbert actually suck?
Because I kinda thought they has something there.
We just looking at a AAAA player here who's bat doesn't profile at an offense-first position and who's glove can't hang at a defense-first position? Because you still see some positive signs in his AAA numbers.
Not as a guy who's gonna become a 25 homer guy, but a 12-15 HR, high 7s OPS built on bat control and doubles pop doesn't seem impossible.
Y'all just completely done with him or would you take him back for less than he'd have gotten in arb; say $1 million on a one-year deal?
He is the type of player we should have used as trade bait in 2015. I said that back then as well. [Reply]
Sources: #Royals first base coach Mitch Maier is being promoted to the front office as a director of baseball operations. An announcement could be coming today.
Originally Posted by siberian khatru:
Kind of interesting:
Sources: #Royals first base coach Mitch Maier is being promoted to the front office as a director of baseball operations. An announcement could be coming today.
In the days of the Royals sucking Mitch Maier and John Buck where my dads favorite players........he affectionately referred to them as Bitch Maier and Buck Fuck. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But you can't hand-waive the last 2 months.
Of course you can. We have years of datapoints from both. 2 hot months won’t be worth a fraction of what the body is. I mean, guys do that all the time. I pulled the 8/1 - 9/30 war data. Tops was Alex Bergman 4.2. 5th was some dude named Tommy Edman 2.6.
Originally Posted by :
Pomeranz, when he was Mongtomery as a starter, was traded for effectively nothing (even though he'd already started a successful relief conversion).
He was worth roughly 1/2 of Mauricio Dubon. That's how valued he was in league circles BEFORE he had those last 2 months.
That’s a lot! Dunno who he is. Just pulled his FG page, 25 year old middle IF with a proj Steamer of 1.0 next year. Cost controlled for more years after. That’s some surplus value there.
Originally Posted by :
Those last 2 months are the ONLY reason the guy got paid. So you can't just say "well yeah, they're the same guy" when one of them showed a completely new skill-set in relief. The guy turned into peak Andrew Miller for 2 months and it got him paid.
If he DOESN'T turn into that guy for 2 months, he's out there kicking over cans trying to find a 1 year deal for $5-6 million.
Reminds me of Danny Duffy. Dude had two dominant months in 2016 and turned it into 60M. But don’t be fooled - even without it he was looking at 30-35M.
Originally Posted by :
Career fastball velocity means precisely dick here when we've seen Montgomery's in relief (around 92) and we've seen Pomeranz's in relief (around 96). FIP doesn't even mean much when the K rate for Pomeranz spiked to levels well beyond Mongtomery's best seasons even as a reliever.
You're Yada Yadaing the only reason he got paid. I just don't see how that makes any sense at all.
Velo only relevant to assess current health really. Few guys pull a Charlie Morton and spike their velo, only need to watch it go the wrong way (Steamwr heavily weights this btw as it’s a harbinger of future problems) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
So Travis Shaw and Taijuan Walker got non tendered also...Royals might wanna give that a look.
3B Travis Shaw - His 2017 31 HRs and 2018 32 HRs looks good, but the Brewers gave up on him as a 29 year old that slumped to .157/.281/.270 in 230 ABs in 2019. I prefer to see what Hunter Dozier and maybe Kelvin Gutierrez can do.
SP Taijuan Walker - Would be a possibility for the Royals. Still only 27 years old and maybe ready to return from 2018 Tommy John surgery. He is the kind of player KC could make a small investment in and see if it works out. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Of course you can. We have years of datapoints from both. 2 hot months won’t be worth a fraction of what the body is. I mean, guys do that all the time. I pulled the 8/1 - 9/30 war data. Tops was Alex Bergman 4.2. 5th was some dude named Tommy Edman 2.6.
If Pomeranz had even a single season as dominant as those 2 months, he'd have been paid twice that. The short sample size is already being considered.
When the '2 hot months' demonstrates a new skill set in a new role, it's absolutely more relevant than several previous years in a different role. Especially when there's a LOUD historic tie between bullpen work and increased velocity. Yes, there's every reason to believe that his velo will hold at that level. And when there's an almost equally loud relationship between velocity and K rates, that's an excellent sign that he'll be able to maintain that kind of stuff in that role.
Now where you're absolutely right is the injury concern. We don't know how his body will hold up over a full season of having to go on back to back nights on occcasion. Or how he'll look in August when he has 50+ appearances under his belt and needs to pitch for the 3rd time in 4 days.
I think that's absolutely a worthwhile concern. But man - you pro-rate what he did as a reliever over 65 appearances and the guy's essentially a slightly better version of who Will Smith has been the last two years. Will Smith got 3/$40 and he doesn't have stuff with nearly the raw electricity that Pomeranz has.
So like I said, the arbitrage on the unknown with Pomeranz is already built into his 4/$34 million deal. He demonstrated a skill level for 2 months that is BEYOND what Will Smith demonstrated and also presents a 'stuff' premium that Smith doesn't. The reason Smith got more money over a shorter term is nothing but an acknowledgment that we aren't positive how Pomeranz will hold up in a relief role.
Pomeranz was worth .8 of a win in 2 months as a reliever in Milwaukee. If that's a new normal, he's a 2-2.5 win player. At 4/$34 he ISN'T being paid as though he's a 2-2.5 win reliever. He's being paid as though he's about half that and the whole discrepancy is based on little more than the risk.
Originally Posted by Wilson8:
3B Travis Shaw - His 2017 31 HRs and 2018 32 HRs looks good, but the Brewers gave up on him as a 29 year old that slumped to .157/.281/.270 in 230 ABs in 2019. I prefer to see what Hunter Dozier and maybe Kelvin Gutierrez can do.
SP Taijuan Walker - Would be a possibility for the Royals. Still only 27 years old and maybe ready to return from 2018 Tommy John surgery. He is the kind of player KC could make a small investment in and see if it works out.
I saw a suggestion the other day that lots of teams are in the market for a 3rd baseman without much available and maybe the Royals should considering putting Dozier on the block.
It would obviously hurt the team this year but they aren't winning anything anyway and if you could get a haul it would be worth it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
If Pomeranz had even a single season as dominant as those 2 months, he'd have been paid twice that. The short sample size is already being considered.
When the '2 hot months' demonstrates a new skill set in a new role, it's absolutely more relevant than several previous years in a different role. Especially when there's a LOUD historic tie between bullpen work and increased velocity. Yes, there's every reason to believe that his velo will hold at that level. And when there's an almost equally loud relationship between velocity and K rates, that's an excellent sign that he'll be able to maintain that kind of stuff in that role.
Blake Treinen was historic in 2018. Below replacement in 2019. DFA. Teams are well aware how volatile bullpens (and relievers) are. They know two hot months are just another datapoint - not a new player.
Treinen **will** get a multi year deal and people **will** gasp “Gow is this possible??” And this because teams don’t overweight these recent results.
Originally Posted by :
Now where you're absolutely right is the injury concern. We don't know how his body will hold up over a full season of having to go on back to back nights on occcasion. Or how he'll look in August when he has 50+ appearances under his belt and needs to pitch for the 3rd time in 4 days.
They just wanted to see if he’s healthy. That’s what his last two months did - convinced teams he was more like 2017 than the broken down one. That’s bigger than whatever he did with his K rate.
Originally Posted by :
I think that's absolutely a worthwhile concern. But man - you pro-rate what he did as a reliever over 65 appearances and the guy's essentially a slightly better version of who Will Smith has been the last two years. Will Smith got 3/$40 and he doesn't have stuff with nearly the raw electricity that Pomeranz has.
So now we are getting to my argument all along - there’s a shitload of excess cash and nowhere to go. $150m avg payrolls with 25 slots, half of whom make the minimum. I mean shit, ANY vet worth an oz of salt will make millions. That’ll happen for Montgomery too if he stays healthy.
Originally Posted by :
was worth 8 of a win in 2 months as a reliever in Milwaukee. If that's a new normal, he's a 2-2.5 win player. At 4/$34 he ISN'T being paid as though he's a 2-2.5 win reliever. He's being paid as though he's about half that and the whole discrepancy is based on little more than the risk.
It's already been factored into his deal.
You’re way overthinking this. They know he’s not the new Josh Hader. If folks actually thought that he’d make more money. He’s a guy who can get you 1-2 wins as either a starter or reliever or swing guy, when healthy. These days that’s a man literally holding a winning lottery ticket. [Reply]
Zack Wheeler heads to the Phillies 5 years 118 mill, apparently the White Sox offered more but his wife is from Jersey and being close to home mattered.
Cole Hamels takes a 1 year deal with the Braves. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Zack Wheeler heads to the Phillies 5 years 118 mill, apparently the White Sox offered more but his wife is from Jersey and being close to home mattered.
Cole Hamels takes a 1 year deal with the Braves.
Wow.
Like I said, the league love gambling on raw stuff, man.
$24 million/season for a guy with a whole slew of arm troubles and a developing reputation for having "results that don't match up with his peripherals...."
Those kinds of high octane, injury prone arms w/ disconnects between performance and results have gotten a LOT of people fired. [Reply]
sad what has happened to the MLB off season... used to more flashy and fun, now the owners sit on the money till spring.
And boy... I use to get up for the winter meetings... but now with the royals... its just some trash in the Rule V and head home to talk up shitty prospects. [Reply]