But wait guys.... RULE V draft is coming up! We'll grab a couple guys who we send back in the first month. Then the inevitable February scrap heap bullpen signing that makes you think "that guy still plays?" Who will it be?!? Brandon Webb? Jake Peavy? Chris Perez?!?
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Some interesting moves coming down the pipe the last few days...
Mike Moustakas to the Reds 4 years 16 per.
Royals agree to a 1 year deal with Mike Montgomery.
Padres trade Luis Urias and Eric Lauer to Milwaukee for Zach Davis and Trent Grisham
Padres also acquired Jurickson Profar from the As
Padres signed Drew Pomeranz for 4 for 34.
I really like Trent Grisham.
I wonder if Petco doesn't fit his stroke a little better....well, no I don't. It doesn't. Milwaukee is a hitter's paradise. But I wonder if he'll be less hurt by Petco than many hitters are. He has a nice approach and a sweet little line drive lefty swing.
But I kinda thought they might move him as soon as he misplayed that ball from Soto. That's the sort of thing that you just don't bounce back from in the same city most of the time. Sometimes they embrace you and you become the city's little broken dove that they root extra hard for, but most of the time you're just the face of failure there.
It's probably good for him to get out of there. And they had a bit of a logjam in the OF anyway since they won't give up on Braun.
That's a high-talent MI though with Urias and Heura in Milwaukee. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Some interesting moves coming down the pipe the last few days...
Mike Moustakas to the Reds 4 years 16 per.
Royals agree to a 1 year deal with Mike Montgomery.
Padres trade Luis Urias and Eric Lauer to Milwaukee for Zach Davis and Trent Grisham
Padres also acquired Jurickson Profar from the As
Padres signed Drew Pomeranz for 4 for 34.
The Reds stadium will pay huge dividends to Moose. [Reply]
We just looking at a AAAA player here who's bat doesn't profile at an offense-first position and who's glove can't hang at a defense-first position? Because you still see some positive signs in his AAA numbers.
Not as a guy who's gonna become a 25 homer guy, but a 12-15 HR, high 7s OPS built on bat control and doubles pop doesn't seem impossible.
Y'all just completely done with him or would you take him back for less than he'd have gotten in arb; say $1 million on a one-year deal? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
So DJ. Tell me how Mike Montgomery isn’t Drew Pomeranz’ doppelgänger.
Now my talk of giving him a contract doesn’t look so dumb when you see what Pomeranz just got.
Drew Pomeranz literally got paid because he was a really good reliever for 2 months. Lets not act like that contract may not end up looking dumb as fuck. [Reply]
We just looking at a AAAA player here who's bat doesn't profile at an offense-first position and who's glove can't hang at a defense-first position? Because you still see some positive signs in his AAA numbers.
That's the issue. I love Cutty's potential, but the Royals have tried to slot him at several positions to make something "work", and it hasn't. Dozier's emergence pretty much spelled the end for Cutty getting regular time last year.
I still think he has good potential, but finding a place in the field for him continues to be a challenge. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Drew Pomeranz literally got paid because he was a really good reliever for 2 months. Lets not act like that contract may not end up looking dumb as ****.
“Dumb” is all relative. A FA will cost you $9M/war now. Montgomery avg 1.3 the prior 3 seasons and Steamer predicts 1.2 in 2020. Do the math. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
So DJ. Tell me how Mike Montgomery isn’t Drew Pomeranz’ doppelgänger.
Now my talk of giving him a contract doesn’t look so dumb when you see what Pomeranz just got.
When did I say it looked dumb? I like Mike Montgomery. I was a fan of Montgomery when you fellas made the trade and said he was a good gamble.
That said, you really need me to tell you why teams were more excited by the potential of Pomeranz than Montgomery? Dude was throwing 96 mph in relief and was punching out dudes like crazy; struck out 50 of 106 total batters faced in relief - that's unreal. And it's not as though his K rate was bad as a starter.
Teams love strikeout stuff and Pomeranz has it. Montgomery doesn't. Teams pay for potential all the time - often to their detriment - but it doesn't stop them from doing it.
I wouldn't have given Pomeranz the deal he got, but I don't think it's a real tough answer as to why he had the kind of demand on the market he had. He made that transition to lock-down lefty reliever seamlessly. And with baseball getting away from LOOGYs due to the new rules on pitcher substituions, having a lefty that can attack righties is more valuable than ever.
As a reliever Pomeranz struck out 32 of the 68 right-handed batters he faced.
Thats some seriously tasty shit to GMs looking to find a new way to attack lefties in late innings when they can't just match up LOOGYs anymore.
The Cardinals (foolishly) gave Andrew Miller $11 million/year on the hopes that he could get back to the guy he was 3 seasons ago. That's just the market for lefty relievers that throw hard and can punch guys out. Montgomery isn't that guy. Pomeranz demonstrated that his fastball will play WAY up in relief and his curve is a true hammer - something that Montgomery will need to rediscover to rebuild his market.
If Montgomery gets his hammer curve back and proceeds to strike out the world, you'll see him get paid. If he continues to feel for his curve and rely on a mediocre fastball to generate grounders, he'll have to hope he can routinely eat innings and develop the sort of journeyman career Jason Vargas has developed. [Reply]
I see two big LH who are 30ish with identical career stats. One has a 4.33fip the other 4.20. Babip .292 vs .297, LOB% 75.1 vs 75.2. Dinger rate on FB 13.8 vs 13.2. fastball velocity (career) 92.3 vs 92.1.
I mean that’s the same damn guy. We could quibble about whether one found new life or something the last 2 months of an otherwise-dreadful season but the sample sizes are so large we can safely conclude they are perfect comps. [Reply]
Pomeranz, when he was Mongtomery as a starter, was traded for effectively nothing (even though he'd already started a successful relief conversion).
He was worth roughly 1/2 of Mauricio Dubon. That's how valued he was in league circles BEFORE he had those last 2 months.
Those last 2 months are the ONLY reason the guy got paid. So you can't just say "well yeah, they're the same guy" when one of them showed a completely new skill-set in relief. The guy turned into peak Andrew Miller for 2 months and it got him paid.
If he DOESN'T turn into that guy for 2 months, he's out there kicking over cans trying to find a 1 year deal for $5-6 million.
Career fastball velocity means precisely dick here when we've seen Montgomery's in relief (around 92) and we've seen Pomeranz's in relief (around 96). FIP doesn't even mean much when the K rate for Pomeranz spiked to levels well beyond Mongtomery's best seasons even as a reliever.
You're Yada Yadaing the only reason he got paid. I just don't see how that makes any sense at all. [Reply]