https://youtu.be/NsrxpocMIdw
Deshaun Watson could absolutely force a trade, and here is how it happen
by
Mike Sando
Originally Posted by :
A critical variable in the Deshaun Watson drama with the Houston Texans will determine, ultimately, whether the 25-year-old franchise quarterback plays another down for the team that drafted him in 2017. Forget the usual assurances suggesting Houston would never, under any circumstances, trade Watson. Ten years ago, the Cincinnati Bengals’ notoriously stubborn patriarch, Mike Brown, vowed he would not trade franchise quarterback Carson Palmer, but Brown underestimated the No. 1 variable at work in these situations — a variable that will determine what happens with Watson as well.
A year ago Tuesday, Watson and the Texans built a 24-0 playoff lead over the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and then lost the game, 51-31. The Texans have been outscored by 124 points since building that big lead — the fourth-worst scoring differential in the NFL — while posting a 4-13 record. This, despite Watson leading the league this season in expected points added (EPA) per attempt, a notch ahead of MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers. Watson, surely weary over the dismantling of the Texans’ roster, is now upset over the team’s clumsy handling of its general manager and coaching searches. As a result, Watson “could play hardball with the Texans about a trade,” ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported.
The standard league reaction will be to dismiss such reports on the thinking that players blink first in standoffs with team owners. Players usually do blink first, but not always, and based on recent evidence, anyone who spots Texans owner Cal McNair at a poker table is encouraged to pull up a chair. After driving the NFL news cycle through wild-card weekend, Watson’s situation invites closer inspection, so we’ll begin the Pick Six column with NFL insiders’ analysis of the situation, including the key variable and relevant comps. The full Pick Six menu this week:
Watson, the Texans and how a trade could happen
Tom Brady, George Blanda and Big Ben Roethlisberger
Josh Allen walks edge, lives to tell about it
The unsung key to Ravens’ playoff breakthrough
Rams’ defensive dominance in proper perspective
Top seed has its privileges for Packers, Chiefs
1. Watson expressed his frustration through a since-deleted Tweet (“some things never change”) after the Texans hired Nick Caserio without consulting him. Could he really force a trade?
The key variable for Watson is whether the Texans’ mishandling of their roster and alleged breaking of a promise to include him in their GM and coaching searches has left the quarterback sufficiently upset to force a trade. By sufficiently upset, we mean upset enough to possibly imperil short-term earnings. Watson pocketed nearly $30 million this past season under terms of a new contract. He has earned about $40 million for his career. The no-trade clause in his contract would effectively allow Watson to steer any trade to a team of his liking, provided he’s willing to sit out if necessary. If he is willing to sit out, then he has power.
“Watson represents an example of player empowerment like we see in the NBA,” a longtime NFL exec said. “Because he has enough money in the bank, he can say, ‘No, you are going to do it the way I want to do it or else you do not have me.’ This is presuming he believes the DeAndre Hopkins trade and other moves were irrational, and the GM was hired in a ridiculous way, and his feelings are heartfelt. If those things are true, he can absolutely get traded where he wants to get traded, because of his no-trade clause.”
The Palmer situation could be instructive. The first pick in the 2003 NFL draft, Palmer generally played well for the Bengals, but he grew so weary of Cincinnati’s ownership that he vowed to never again play for the team. Most importantly, Palmer meant it. Whether Watson feels similarly is not yet known.
“I will never set foot in Paul Brown Stadium again,” Palmer said back in 2011. “I have $80 million in the bank. I don’t have to play football for money. I’ll play it for the love of the game, but that would have to be elsewhere.”
Brown, the Bengals’ owner, decided to wait out Palmer. He declared the team had no plans to make a trade. Palmer did not blink. Brown traded him to the Oakland Raiders that October. The rest of Palmer’s career was better than his career with Cincinnati. He’s now in the Arizona Cardinals’ Ring of Honor.
“Usually, it takes an emotional component beyond the business component for a player to stick to his guns,” the exec said. “Caserio understandably can take the approach he does not believe a player will pass up the kind of money he has on the table, but if I’m Watson, maybe I think I can hold my breath longer than he can, because I’m 25 years old and I have a lot of great years left.”
Watson’s agent, David Mulugheta, also represents cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who wanted out of Jacksonville and was able to force a trade from the Jaguars to the Los Angeles Rams last season. In that case, there was an emotional component, namely Ramsey’s frustration with the organization and its leadership at that time. Reports suggested Ramsey came away from an exchange with then-Jaguars exec Tom Coughlin feeling disrespected, and he wasn’t going to play with the team for the long term. Watson could plausibly feel the same way if McNair sought and then disregarded the quarterback’s input on key hires, including the quarterback’s suggestion that the team look into Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy for the head coaching job. Perhaps the Texans can smooth over the situation. Perhaps not.
“We are going to find out how emotionally committed Watson is,” the exec said. “Most players are not that committed. They say they are, but they really are not, and if you do wait them out, the player ends up giving in usually.”
Palmer was in his early 30s when he forced his way out of Cincinnati. No quarterback as young and productive as Watson has been traded since … when? When the Denver Broncos shipped Jay Cutler to Chicago after his third season, Cutler had the first-round pedigree without the surging production, or the rich second contract, that differentiate Watson and make him a Texans cornerstone. One coincidence: Denver’s new coach at that time, Josh McDaniels, had come to the Broncos from the Patriots, just as Caserio is coming to the Texans from New England. The Patriots for years were not afraid to part with high-profile players, including elite talents. As for Cutler, he ranked ninth in EPA per pass attempt in 2008, his final year with the Broncos, but he tossed 18 interceptions, second-most in the league. Watson put up MVP-caliber numbers this season while playing for a team that lost primarily because its defense ranked 31st in EPA.
Any GM candidate could be drawn to Houston because of Watson, especially a candidate who saw in New England how much life changed after Tom Brady’s departure. A candidate with six Super Bowl rings also might wonder how any player coming off a 4-12 season could expect to factor in team decision making at the highest levels, especially a player with one postseason victory on his resume.
“I would never trade him — never, ever, ever,” another exec said. “If you are that pissed, then stop playing football, retire. What has Watson done? Caserio could say, ‘Look, play your ass off and in a few years, if this isn’t what you like, then we can address it, but you signed this contract, and when Bill O’Brien got fired, you weren’t disappointed, either, so you knew what you were signing up for.”
Quarterbacks have forced trades in the distant past. Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton had played six seasons for the Minnesota Vikings when, in 1967, he grew so disenchanted with then-coach Norm Van Brocklin that he threatened to retire. Van Brocklin resigned. The Vikings traded Tarkenton to the New York Giants for three draft choices and a player to be named later, then reacquired Tarkenton after another five seasons. Teams could more easily win while minimizing the quarterback in those heavily run-oriented days. That’s not as realistic now.
“Watson will get over this with a new coach,” a former head coach predicted. “What is he going to do, play bad intentionally? Of course not.”
When Hall of Famer Dan Marino was entering his age-24 season with the Miami Dolphins, contract talks became so bitter that Marino accused owner Joe Robbie of having “unfairly misled and taken advantage” of him. Marino’s agent even released to the media a five-page play-by-play of negotiations painting the team in unflattering light, complete with phone records. Robbie went public in return, threatening to “cheerfully reveal the excessive demands” that Marino’s agent had supposedly made. In the end, Marino and the Dolphins spent the next 15 seasons together. Marino retired a Dolphin. He works for the team to this day.
Watson’s Texans are not Marino’s Dolphins. They do not have Don Shula (or anyone) coaching their team. Their owner is the unproven McNair, who within the past two years allowed a series of questionable moves involving high-profile players. The Texans additionally are not coming off a Super Bowl season the way Miami was when Marino took aim at Dolphins ownership.
Chris Mortensen reported that there is “informed speculation” that Watson would be interested in Miami as a landing spot.
“The quarterback coming out and saying, even indirectly, that he’d take a trade to Miami is weird,” another exec said. “Miami has a quarterback they already took. If you are the Texans, maybe you try to minimize the situation, handle it internally and try to get your ducks in a row. You gotta be careful what you say publicly because the owner coming out and saying he has reached out and hasn’t talked to Watson yet makes them look inept.”
The Dolphins hold the third overall pick, acquired from Houston in the Laremy Tunsil trade, plus their own first-round choice, No. 18. They own the Texans’ second-round choice, also acquired in the Tunsil trade. Houston’s roster needs significant reinforcements through the draft and the team has very little capital, but in what world would Tua Tagovailoa appeal as a replacement for Watson? Perhaps in a world where Watson is not available to them.
“If a team is offering you a high first-round pick this year, future high picks and a young player, at a certain point, we can really jump-start our program here,” an exec said.
The Texans are guilty of having an inexperienced owner who gave too much power to O’Brien, did the same with subsequent hire Jack Easterby and then gave Watson the impression he would be part of the GM and head coach hiring processes, without following through to the quarterback’s liking.
“The biggest problem some of these teams have is, they put the quarterback on a different level than the rest of the team,” another exec said. “They make them like they are an advisor or assistant coach or somewhere in between and it’s not good for the team. These guys, as sharp as some of them are, are not capable of knowing who to draft or whatever. When you do that, it goes bad. It doesn’t matter if it’s Tom Brady and he has been there 20 years. That is not their job. If you make that mistake, there is no turning back.”
The Texans could be in the process of turning back from including Watson in such matters. Caserio learned from Bill Belichick, who was not known for consulting players or even staff members on key decisions.
“I think this is much ado about nothing,” another exec said. “The most important thing they can do is get a head coach Deshaun believes in, which they can still do.”
[Reply]
