Here is the entire article since I have plus I'll go ahead and put it up for everyone to read....
If NFL scientists developed a quarterback in the lab to satisfy both football purists and the analytics crowd, Patrick Mahomes would emerge from the smoke.
Mahomes' first three seasons in the NFL mirror the early career of The Notorious B.I.G. in that both needed just a few years to show that they had no obvious weaknesses. One seamlessly moved from storytelling to classic metaphors, the other from 60-yard dimes on the move to dissecting defenses in the red zone.
At 23 years, 104 days old last season, Patrick Mahomes became the NFL's youngest Most Valuable Player since Dan Marino in 1984. Since his first start in the final week of the 2017 season, Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdown passes (78) and total QBR (78.3).
All of this has tremendous monetary value -- like nothing the NFL has ever seen. Mahomes, a 2021 free agent, must be paid sooner or later, which means an already exploding quarterback market must reset to a new stratosphere. Here's what we know: Mahomes has one year left on his four-year rookie contract, and the Kansas City Chiefs -- who can place a fifth-year option on him this offseason -- appear open to negotiating sooner than later.
What Kansas City should do and what it will do can vary wildly, which is why we spoke with several people around the league to decipher what's real and what's not.
If NFL scientists developed a quarterback in the lab to satisfy both football purists and the analytics crowd, Patrick Mahomes would emerge from the smoke.
Mahomes' first three seasons in the NFL mirror the early career of The Notorious B.I.G. in that both needed just a few years to show that they had no obvious weaknesses. One seamlessly moved from storytelling to classic metaphors, the other from 60-yard dimes on the move to dissecting defenses in the red zone.
At 23 years, 104 days old last season, Patrick Mahomes became the NFL's youngest Most Valuable Player since Dan Marino in 1984. Since his first start in the final week of the 2017 season, Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdown passes (78) and total QBR (78.3).
All of this has tremendous monetary value -- like nothing the NFL has ever seen. Mahomes, a 2021 free agent, must be paid sooner or later, which means an already exploding quarterback market must reset to a new stratosphere. Here's what we know: Mahomes has one year left on his four-year rookie contract, and the Kansas City Chiefs -- who can place a fifth-year option on him this offseason -- appear open to negotiating sooner than later.
What Kansas City should do and what it will do can vary wildly, which is why we spoke with several people around the league to decipher what's real and what's not.
Wilson might be the best comparison for Mahomes because not only does he have $107 million in guarantees, but also $65 million of that came in a signing bonus. Goff got a $25 million signing bonus and an extra $31 million in guarantees in 2020. And while Goff is a nice young player, Wilson is more aligned with Mahomes' status among top-five quarterbacks.
No NFL execs or sources who spoke with ESPN for this story have a problem going close to the $40 million threshold. In fact, one source says his NFL front office recently talked about Mahomes being worth $1 billion -- and was only half-joking.
"I'm not sure if it's $40 million as the number, but it will probably be close to that," one AFC executive said. "It's a given he will be the highest paid. If he's doing, say, a four-year deal, $160 million, that might be a realistic spot."
Those numbers actually have a loose correlation to touchdown passes. Mahomes' 76 touchdowns as a starter are eight more than Wilson's, the second-place finisher, during that span. That's 11.7% more than Wilson's total. The same percentage increase over Wilson's annual pay would net Mahomes $39.12 million per year.
One high-ranking league source put it bluntly: Mahomes should ignore those semantics and blow up the vault. Forget the $40 million.
"If I were [the Chiefs], I would be as proactive as humanly possible," the source said. "If Jared Goff can get no offset language in his entire contract after three years in the league, then this specific player has all the leverage. I think $40 million would be Mahomes selling himself short."
The structure
If an NFL player is ever set to go NBA on the league -- loading up on huge payouts over shorter terms -- Mahomes is a prime candidate. This would make agents across the country happy because it would give the player the leverage of fully guaranteed money and the chance to reopen contract talks in two or three years. It's the Kirk Cousins framework, with 30 pounds of additional muscle.
"The ideal case is going shorter length," the high-ranking league source said. "It's all about where the team sets their markets. This could be a case where the team's cash flow is so huge that the guarantees don't have to break the market. Or the tradeoff might be a higher per year average and less guarantees. It's all about what is most important to Mahomes."
But because that isn't a common practice for top quarterbacks, four years seems like a logical middle ground, especially if Mahomes opts for a deal now instead of playing out 2020.
As it stands, the team likely has to fold two contract years -- the fourth year from the rookie contract and the fifth-year option commensurate with the highest paid at his position -- into a larger deal, thus weighing down the bottom line.
If Mahomes gives the team the concession of more years, where he will undeniably win is the signing bonus that the team can prorate. There's little reason Mahomes can't hit around $75 million on his signing bonus if he wants, several sources say.
The timing
Most agree that the bandage should be ripped off now, as opposed to waiting.
The 2020 salary cap should land between $196 million and $200 million, a spike of around 15% from two years ago ($177.2 million). That number will continue to climb the longer the Chiefs wait.
Five years ago, the going rate for top-shelf quarterbacks was $20 million per year. That market has ballooned 75% since then. It's a true positional explosion, and Mahomes combines superior ability with youth (24) and the perfect offensive system under Andy Reid.
"Pay him this offseason and get it done with," an NFC executive said. "Highest paid."
The only thing preventing that move would be team policy. Some teams simply don't do contracts until a player has one left year on his deal. The Pittsburgh Steelers are known for that, and conventional teams are not likely to change their ways.
Another AFC executive understands that philosophy because "too much can happen in that time," such as injury or a change in team dynamics.
The Chiefs don't appear to have such a hard-and-fast rule, people around the league say, which could help prevent a potential Mahomes holdout.
The variables
NFL teams still project archaic constraints, beholden to bloated salary caps and kick-the-can-down-the-road methods.
Mahomes must decide how long he's willing to make the Chiefs sweat, which one veteran NFL agent says won't be long because agents Leigh Steinberg and Chris Cabott will be eager to close on such a headlining deal.
The Chiefs currently sit at minus-$829,912 in cap space for 2020, though there are two easy fixes: Release Sammy Watkins ($14 million cap hit) and pass-rusher Alex Okafor ($5.95 million).
However, that won't address defensive end Chris Jones, who might be too costly to keep. The market for high-end interior pass-rushers is well above $15 million per year. One option is to franchise tag Jones and then trade him to a team that can afford to sign him long-term. That's what the Chiefs did with pass-rusher Dee Ford, who signed with the San Francisco 49ers after they gave the Chiefs a second-round pick to get him.
Another problem looms with tight end Travis Kelce, whose last year of his contract carries a $7.25 million salary in 2020. He'll undoubtedly want a raise, joining Frank Clark (five years, $105.5 million), Tyreek Hill (three years, $54 million) and Tyrann Mathieu (three years, $42 million) as star Chiefs players whose contracts weigh heavily on the team's future decisions.
The Chiefs have plenty of work to do to create space for a quarterback who cost $4.1 million this past season. They have many star players, and their books show it. Then there's the looming collective bargaining agreement, and sources say this round of negotiations has included an interesting talking point fueled by owners: creating a separate salary cap for quarterbacks. The selling point is that addressing quarterback money as a separate entity leaves more flexibility for signing players at other positions. Think a $40 million cap for QBs and a $170 million cap for everyone else, for example. But the player side has reason to be skeptical about that, given that owners don't always fulfill promises.
Regardless, the Chiefs don't have much traction to nitpick Mahomes' value at the negotiating table. Vegas favors the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl this year and next. Mahomes is the chief reason for that.
"This is not the kind of player you want to put off," the second AFC exec said. "He's too good. Just get it done now."
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