Obviously this is going to be a key discussion this offseason. On The Athletic's podcast (Time's Ours), Nate Taylor said that he's heard that there are multiple teams out there who would give us a 1st round pick for Jones (assuming we tag and trade him), and possibly more than that.
So just to lay out a simplified version of the options:
Option 1:
Chris Jones (probably around $20m per year)
Option 2:
1st round draft pick (cheap for 4-5 years)
$20m worth of other players
For context on how much other players might cost based on recent free agents we've signed:
Clark - $21m
Mathieu - $14m
Hitchens - $9m
Schwartz - $8m
Okafor - $6m
Originally Posted by BossChief:
The OL could use a couple upgrades, but they are a top 10 OL as it sits right now by just re-signing Wis. I could see them using a pick on a center, but that’s about it.
Isn't that the position Allegretti was drafted to fill? [Reply]
Originally Posted by saphojunkie:
This reasoning is emotional, and therefor I do not trust it.
I know you all WANT to keep Jones, and it might happen. If it does, great. I will be happy to cheer for him. But make no mistake, it is not the most prudent move.
In a game massively affected by injury, you are tying a TON of capital up in the health of one man. If you trade for a 1st and two 3rds (a la Jared Allen), plus have $15M to spend on free agents (after paying your new 1st rounder), then you might potentially have 5 or 6 players who can START for this team. That is a significant diversification of risk, as well as a significant diversification of potential.
If you sign Jones, you are guaranteed one elite player. If you trade him, you have the potential to have an elite player at multiple positions.
You’re trading an elite player for what basically amounts to lottery tickets. [Reply]
Originally Posted by saphojunkie:
Kelce
Hill
Hunt
Jones
Thornhill
Hardman
All of those worked out, and none of them were even first rounders. In a vacuum, you're right. But this isn't in a vacuum. This regime has shown a consistent ability to identify, acquire, and develop talent.
Those are just the elite players, much less the guys like Chavarious Ward, Breeland, LDT, Mitchell Schwartz, Mike Pennel... guys that were identified and brought in to surprising success.
I know the response is going to be "exactly! Sign Jones and find those guys!" Okay, great.. but you're applying the same logic as me: trust that Veach will identify talent and bring them in while making the cap work. I just have MORE faith in his ability to do that with multiple day 1 and 2 picks, as well as financial flexibility. I want Veach to have more capital, not less.
I would rather have the elite talent that is Chris Jones that is a bigger difference maker than any one of those players and possibly even all them together. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
I would rather have the elite talent that is Chris Jones that is a bigger difference maker than any one of those players and possibly even all them together.
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
You’re trading an elite player for what basically amounts to lottery tickets.
A long-term deal with Jones is a bet on his continued elite output and health. A "lottery ticket," as you put it, but one with significant downside risk. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
I would rather have the elite talent that is Chris Jones that is a bigger difference maker than any one of those players and possibly even all them together.
We have only had a half of a year in the last decade where the defense was not a complete liability. And we won a Superbowl with it.
You lock up Jones, Nadi, Clark, Pennel and Honey Badger for the next several years- that is a championship core right there. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
I would rather have the elite talent that is Chris Jones that is a bigger difference maker than any one of those players and possibly even all them together.
You would rather have Chris Jones than Kelce, Hill, Hunt, Thornhill, and Hardman combined? Good Lord, that is crazy talk. [Reply]
Originally Posted by wachashi:
A long-term deal with Jones is a bet on his continued elite output and health. A "lottery ticket," as you put it, but one with significant downside risk.
Then you can make the same argument for Mahomes. [Reply]
There is a severe Fear Of Missing Out that is prevalent in this thread. People cannot stand the thought of Jones producing for another team, and they'd rather possibly torpedo the Chiefs roster to ensure that he doesn't.
There is a reasonable argument for keeping Jones and for trading him. But man, saying he's more valuable than Kelce, Hill, Hunt, Thrornhill, and Hardman TOGETHER is nuts. [Reply]
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
Then you can make the same argument for Mahomes.
Yep, I'm not saying you can't. Mahomes is our lottery ticket. It's the ticket with the best upside in the league, and the one that every other GM would love to have their hands on. But the future is not guaranteed. [Reply]
For those who are strongly advocating for signing Jones, does our experience with Houston not terrify you? He had 22 sacks, got paid, then proceeded to be hurt every year and never topped 10 sacks again. Sub in Eric Berry if you want another example.
What about Jones makes you confident that he's not going to fall apart similarly? I get the "draft picks are lottery tickets" take, but I don't understand how signing a guy like Jones to a huge contract is any different. And the former option comes with a bag of money. [Reply]
Originally Posted by smithandrew051:
Except elite QBs impact the game far more and take less physical punishment than a DT, which prolongs their careers.
Mahomes could lose some athleticism and still be an elite QB. We’ve seen guys like Brady and Brees stay effective for 15+ years.
DT’s are essentially in a car wreck every Sunday. Betting on a DT’s health is much riskier.
Every player that signs a large contract is a risk. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
For those who are strongly advocating for signing Jones, does our experience with Houston not terrify you? He had 22 sacks, got paid, then proceeded to be hurt every year and never topped 10 sacks again. Sub in Eric Berry if you want another example.
What about Jones makes you confident that he's not going to fall apart similarly? I get the "draft picks are lottery tickets" take, but I don't understand how signing a guy like Jones to a huge contract is any different. And the former option comes with a bag of money.
To be fair, Houston sustained a devastating injury. It wasn’t just a normal ACL tear.
That ruined his lateral agility. It took him 2 years to get back from that injury and was never the same after that. [Reply]
