Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by O.city:
So the hope is to have 50 million vaccinated by the end of January here in the US.
Paired with infection immunity, I'd say that would get us to about 150 mil total?
It's just so tough to say. We have ~16m known cases, and that's certainly low. We THINK that there are a shit ton of unknown cases, but I still don't think anyone has quantified it well.
There's also some issue of overlap. Many who get vaccinated will have already had COVID whether they knew it or not.
Regardless, I REALLY hope that we see death rates plummet by the end of January. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
It's just so tough to say. We have ~16m known cases, and that's certainly low. We THINK that there are a shit ton of unknown cases, but I still don't think anyone has quantified it well.
There's also some issue of overlap. Many who get vaccinated will have already had COVID whether they knew it or not.
Regardless, I REALLY hope that we see death rates plummet by the end of January.
I would think it would surely.
Last i read they think it's up to the "we're catching 1 in 7/8 cases" territory, so if thats the case, we should theoretically get there sooner than later. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
So the hope is to have 50 million vaccinated by the end of January here in the US.
Paired with infection immunity, I'd say that would get us to about 150 mil total?
I know it's been speculated that actual cases are between three and ten times known positives. Everything I've seen makes me lean more towards the conservative side and a factor of three. Right now we have roughly 16 million cases and are adding a million per week. The end of January is seven weeks away, so add seven million (and it could be a bit more) to the total. Twenty-three million, multiplied by 3 brings us to 69 million infections. That's 20% of the country. Without having a better metric, you'll have to assume that around 20% of those receiving the vaccine will be overlap. That gives you 40 million new individuals. Added to our infected population, and I think you end up around 110-115 million. Still 1/3 of the country. [Reply]
CDC advisory committee will vote Sunday on Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine
From CNN's Elizabeth Cohen
An advisory committee to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expects to vote Sunday whether to recommend Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine, according to an agenda posted on the agency’s website.
If the panel votes in favor of the vaccine, that’s the last step needed before shots can go into arms.
An advisory panel to the US Food and Drug Administration voted to recommend emergency use authorization of Pfizer’s vaccine on Thursday.
If the FDA does follow the advice of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee – and it usually does – then it’s the CDC’s turn to review the data.
The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will meet virtually Friday to discuss Pfizer’s data, according to the agenda. Dr. William Gruber, Pfizer’s senior vice president of vaccine clinical research and development, will make a presentation to the group.
The company’s clinical trials have shown the vaccine to be 95% effective with no severe side effects.
Once the FDA issues an EUA, then ACIP – a panel of independent experts – can vote on whether to recommend it.
“We anticipate being able to vote on the use of this vaccine on Sunday,” CDC spokesperson Kristen Nordlund told CNN.
CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield has to sign off on ACIP’s recommendation before it’s an official recommendation.
ACIP will also vote on whether any groups should not receive the vaccine. The vaccine has not yet been studied in several groups, including children under age 16, pregnant and breastfeeding women, and people who are immunocompromised.
On Dec. 1, the panel voted that the first two groups to receive the vaccine should be health care workers, and residents of nursing home and assisted living facilities. [Reply]
BREAKING: The FDA's vaccine advisory panel votes to recommend emergency use authorization for Pfizer vaccine: 17 voted yes 4 voted no 1 abstained #COVID19
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
MY understanding..... CDC advisory panel meets tomorrow and Sunday. If approved, the FDA will approve on Sunday, the virus goes out.
I’m thinking why not just approve it tomorrow at that meeting?
I'm not sure. I'm a little disappointed to be honest. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
Maybe this is due to my own ignorance but I thought the FDA was voting on the actual authorization of the vaccine today.
The advisory panel makes a recommendation. The FDA itself determines the authorization. The latter will likely happen tomorrow, but technically they're not required to follow the recommendation. [Reply]