Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs defeat the Titans, 26-10. They go to New England and lose, 35-17. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach stay on. OC Matt Nagy is hired as head coach of the Indianapolis Colts.

2. The Chiefs trade QB Alex Smith for a 2018 2nd and 2019 conditional, and trade DE Allen Bailey for a 2018 4th and 2019 4th.

3. OLB Tamba Hali and ILB Derrick Johnson retire.

4. The Chiefs extend C Mitch Morse 4 years, $21m ($11m guaranteed).

4. The Chiefs sign WR Albert Wilson 3 years, $12m ($4m guaranteed).

6. The Chiefs tender NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches.

7. The Chiefs sign RB Akeem Hunt, FB Anthony Sherman, DE Jarvis Jenkins, ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis, ILB Terrance Smith, CB Kenneth Acker to minimal deals.

8. The Chiefs let walk QB Tyler Bray, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OL Jordan Devey, NT Bennie Logan, ILB Ramik Wilson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, P Dustin Colquitt.

9. The Chiefs sign QB Chad Henne (Jaguars) for 1 year, $3m, TE Virgil Green (Broncos) for 1 year, $2m, DE Clinton McDonald (Buccaneers) 2 years, $7m, Sealver Siliga (Patriots) 1 year, $2m.

10. The Chiefs are picking 27th, and have one compensatory pick (a 6th) for QB Nick Foles. They have three conditionals: a 6th for OT Isaiah Battle, a 7th for DE David King, and a 7th for CB Marcus Cooper.

The draft:

2 (Smith). OLB Jeff Holland, Auburn

The Chiefs D needs help on all three levels, so really they need to take the best possible defender here. Holland checks the boxes -- decent size but outstanding penetration ability. Put up sacks against almost every opponent he faced this year, and still has technique work to do to clean up his rush.

Houston and Ford are unreliable -- and Ford is gone after 2018 anyway. Zombo and Nicholas cannot be depended on. Kpassagnon, against all odds, really does seem like he could be our best passrusher in the next two years. But you need serious depth at passrusher in the NFL. Two seasons of a dozen total starts for Zombo has made that crystal clear.

2. CB Kameron Kelly, San Diego State

This guy has shot up everybody's charts with his fantastic measurables (6'2"!) and his playmaking ability.

3. DE Poona Ford, Texas

One of my favorite players, Ford has enjoyed a great season being a big, powerful block of granite with some passrush ability.

4 (Bailey). QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

I'm more bearish on Mayfield than most, but since the Chiefs need 2 QBs in 2018, they're going to have to draft one. Mayfield has #2 QB upside, maybe even a low end starter, but he's going to need a lot of work.

4. OT/G Will Richardson, North Carolina State
6 (Battle). C Bradley Bozeman, Alabama
6. CB Siran Neal, Jacksonville State
6 (Foles). NT De'Asian Richardson, Louisville
7 (Cooper). some punter
7 (King). WR Quadree Henderson, Pittsburgh

roster:

QB: Mahomes, Henne, Mayfield
RB: Hunt, Ware, West, Hunt
FB: Sherman

WR: Hill, Conley, Wilson, Robinson, Chesson, Henderson
TE: Kelce, Green, Harris

LT: Fisher, Schwartz
LG: Ehinger, Witzmann
C: Morse, Erving, Bozeman
RG: Duvarney-Tardif, Witzmann
RT: Schwartz, Erving, Richardson

DE: Jones, Jenkins
NT: Nunez-Roches, Siliga, Richardson
DE: McDonald, Ford

OLB: Ford, Kpassagnon
ILB: Ragland, Smith
ILB: Eligwe, Pierre-Louis
OLB: Houston, Holland

CB: Peters, Revis, Nelson, Kelly, Acker, Neal
S: Berry, Parker, Sorensen, Murray, McQuay

K: Butker
P: some dude
LS: Winchester
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