Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Donger:
Again, the task force estimated 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, and that was with mitigation efforts. We have 132,000 deaths right now. So, how can you call that failed?
If you are just going to ignore things because of your agenda, you aren't a reasonable person.
So you assume how many would be dead in the US right now if we had followed the Swedish approach? [Reply]
Originally Posted by :
According to findings from the medical journal Lancet, 5.2% of residents in Spain have developed antibodies, further strengthening evidence herd immunity is "unachievable" without vaccines.
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Ok. I still remember when this started how we were going to "flatten the curve" to delay spread to help the hospitals.
Now we are just flat out saving people. Can you walk me through how those..say 100,000 people we saved will continue to be safe?
Flattening the curve was part of it, yes. So was minimizing infections and deaths. Dirk has a great quote from Fauci on that matter.
How safe they are depends on how they behave, and unfortunately, how others behave as well. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Ok. I still remember when this started how we were going to "flatten the curve" to delay spread to help the hospitals.
Now we are just flat out saving people. Can you walk me through how those..say 100,000 people we saved will continue to be safe?
Donger is a "Just Flatten the curve to not over run the medical facilities" denier. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
Donger is a "Just Flatten the curve to not over run the medical facilities" denier.
No, I'm just aware of what Fauci said at the time:
“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, you know, they go up big peaks, and then they come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” he has said publicly. “That would have less people infected. That would, ultimately, have less deaths.”
Of course trying not to overwhelm our hospitals was part of it. Just not all of it.
Originally Posted by Donger:
Flattening the curve was part of it, yes. So was minimizing infections and deaths. Dirk has a great quote from Fauci on that matter.
How safe they are depends on how they behave, and unfortunately, how others behave as well.
So is keeping all these people safe dependent on a vaccine soon?
How long do you expect Grandma to hide out under your plan? [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
Donger is a "Just Flatten the curve to not over run the medical facilities" denier.
This was from March ....
Originally Posted by :
The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people. As we're seeing in Italy, more and more new patients may be forced to go without ICU beds, and more and more hospitals may run out of the basic supplies they need to respond to the outbreak.
A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away.
For a simple metaphor, consider an office bathroom.
"Your workplace bathroom has only so many stalls," Charles Bergquist, director of the public radio science show "Science Friday" tweeted. "If everyone decides to go at the same time, there are problems. If the same number of people need go to the restroom but spread over several hours, it's all ok."
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
So is keeping all these people safe dependent on a vaccine soon?
How long do you expect Grandma to hide out under your plan?
A vaccine sooner rather than later would be great, yes.
I think that guidelines to reopening issued by the task force made sense. 10 to 14 days of new case decline, if memory serves. And with continued mitigation efforts in effect, to drive the R0 of this thing towards and below 1.
Right. You push the death into the future..it's a juggling act. And that's assuming your whole plan works.
Right now looks like Dr. Michael Levitt was the closest on Covid. The deaths go up, they peak, then they come down. Lockdown or not the curve does the same everywhere.
Now if you are an island like New Zealand and you lockdown early, congrats. You don't get Covid. Now what? When do you open? Because the virus will still be out there. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Right. You push the death into the future..it's a juggling act. And that's assuming your whole plan works.
Right now looks like Dr. Michael Levitt was the closest on Covid. The deaths go up, they peak, then they come down. Lockdown or not the curve does the same everywhere.
Now if you are an island like New Zealand and you lockdown early, congrats. You don't get Covid. Now what? When do you open? Because the virus will still be out there.
The fact that cases spike and then come down is not justification for doing nothing, because the level of that spike can vary and make a huge difference. As you quoted Sweden, who did not lock down, had a much higher death rate.
The virus may still be "out there", but there are countries with insignificant amounts of new cases, and the vast majority seem to be getting better by the week. But not the US, because everyone here wants to call it a hoax or say they are sick of it and if they really really really wish it to go away then it will. [Reply]