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Washington DC and The Holy Land>2020 General Election Poll Thread
Eleazar 05:17 PM 09-02-2020
Current RCP National Average and 2016 at the same point - 9/15:


[Reply]
scho63 02:22 AM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
In my life experience no one is voting for Trump. This is why you should look at data instead of anecdotes.
You, Cosmo, Oaklandhater, Donger, LexLoser, SnopesHammer, NJChiefsFan, NinerVaginer......Yup no one is voting Trump in this circle jerk. :-)
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:29 AM 09-09-2020
New YouGov poll today: Biden 52, Trump 43 (likely voters). Essentially unchanged from their last poll.

The higher rated national polls all continue to show Biden around 50 and Trump between 41 and 44, as has been the case pretty much all year (same with the 6-8% coming back undecided). The race seems pretty stable at the national level.
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:34 AM 09-09-2020
Minor correction to this: 538's final chances in 2016 were actually 71.4% / 28.6%

Originally Posted by :
538's last "chance of winning" was Clinton 70% / Trump 30%. (give or take a point)

It was about 50/50 before the debates but Clinton got a massive bounce from them, to where after the third debate she'd risen to over 90% in the computer simulations.

After the debate bounce receded she was at 80%, then Comey's press conference took her down to about 65%, and she recovered a bit to finish at 70% chance. Then lost the election because of the rust belt states falling just-so.

70% was probably about right. Anyone winning the popular vote by 2 points seems like they would have 3 chances in 4 of winning. :-)

[Reply]
warrior 07:37 AM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by Crapped panties again:
In my life experience no one is voting for Trump. This is why you should look at data instead of anecdotes.


:-)
You have no life experiences little girl-get a job and out of mommy's house
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 08:23 AM 09-09-2020
Bad news, Dims.

Ohio and Florida and it's Trump's and you know it.

OHIO
Trump 50% (+5)
Biden 45%@MorningConsult, LV, 8/29-9/7https://t.co/BLV48ytz6f

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 9, 2020

[Reply]
Eleazar 08:36 AM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by warrior:
:-)
You have no life experiences little girl-get a job and out of mommy's house
He's not wrong. There are a lot of people who post clips of loud and proud Trump supporters at boat parades and rallies, who talk about yard signs and bumper stickers and flags and other signs of unashamed enthusiasm among people they know - but we are supposed to believe that when a pollster calls on the phone they're all too scared to admit it.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:14 AM 09-09-2020
Get ready! Your liberal cone of silence is about to be shattered!

The first 5 states will be: Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona.

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 9, 2020

[Reply]
Eleazar 10:04 AM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Get ready! Your liberal cone of silence is about to be shattered!

What exactly is a "Florida Dude Poll"?
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 10:09 AM 09-09-2020
He runs a private polling firm.
[Reply]
Eleazar 03:02 PM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
He runs a private polling firm.
What firm?
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 03:25 PM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
What firm?
It's private.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 03:40 PM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by scho63:
You, Cosmo, Oaklandhater, Donger, LexLoser, SnopesHammer, NJChiefsFan, NinerVaginer......Yup no one is voting Trump in this circle jerk. :-)
They all ride the short bus with AdoltWorthlessShitbag
[Reply]
SFfan79 03:42 PM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
In my life experience no one is voting for Trump. This is why you should look at data instead of anecdotes.
So you're admitting you surround yourself with morons? No wonder you're a fucking idiot.
[Reply]
RodeoPants2 04:38 PM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by SFfan79:
So you're admitting you surround yourself with morons? No wonder you're a fucking idiot.

Yeah I know this is all you have left. Crawl back in your hole you worthless inbred.
[Reply]
RodeoPants2 04:39 PM 09-09-2020
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/st...382054404?s=21
[Reply]
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