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Washington DC and The Holy Land>2020 General Election Poll Thread
Eleazar 05:17 PM 09-02-2020
Current RCP National Average and 2016 at the same point - 9/24:


[Reply]
El Lobo Gordo 11:31 AM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
Another visual representation of the race in national polls. Still showing fairly remarkable stability throughout 2020.

A lot of money has been spent on adds and the polls haven't moved much. We haven't had the debates so this election is far from baked.

In my own life experience, I see a lot more support for Trump in 2020 from people I interact with than I did in 2016.
[Reply]
Eleazar 12:07 PM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo:
A lot of money has been spent on adds and the polls haven't moved much. We haven't had the debates so this election is far from baked.

In my own life experience, I see a lot more support for Trump in 2020 from people I interact with than I did in 2016.
Biden has led between about 5 and 8 points nationally for all of 2020, the race has been very stable in that way.

The battleground states are mostly within the margin of error, so anything could happen. But Biden's leading by 5 points more than Clinton did at this point in the race is significant.

You can lose the EC when you win by 2 as Clinton did, but if you win by 4 or 5 then your chances of losing seem pretty slim.
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RodeoPants2 12:28 PM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo:
A lot of money has been spent on adds and the polls haven't moved much. We haven't had the debates so this election is far from baked.

In my own life experience, I see a lot more support for Trump in 2020 from people I interact with than I did in 2016.

In my life experience no one is voting for Trump. This is why you should look at data instead of anecdotes.
[Reply]
RodeoPants2 12:28 PM 09-08-2020
NBC poll showing a tie in FL today.
[Reply]
El Lobo Gordo 12:32 PM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
In my life experience no one is voting for Trump. This is why you should look at data instead of anecdotes.
I consider many things including polls in addition to my life experience(which admittedly is myopic). I think it 2020 is an uphill battle for Trump at this point and has been since the day he won 2016.
[Reply]
Eleazar 12:44 PM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
In my life experience no one is voting for Trump. This is why you should look at data instead of anecdotes.
How could Biden be leading in the polls? Nobody I know is voting for him!
[Reply]
GloryDayz 01:14 PM 09-08-2020
Just got a call. I told them Biden.
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RodeoPants2 01:37 PM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo:
I consider many things including polls in addition to my life experience(which admittedly is myopic). I think it 2020 is an uphill battle for Trump at this point and has been since the day he won 2016.
I agree. He lucked out to face a historically poor candidate in 2016. And he still likely would have lost but for Comey's letter.

And of course he mostly just golfs and tweets, not the stuff to build a record on. He can't rely on his base to win him the election this time, and there's no "biden fatigue" in the way there was clinton fatigue.

Plus his attempts to smear biden seem to be backfiring.
[Reply]
Eleazar 03:26 PM 09-08-2020
538 has a nicely done page tracking their computer simulations, which is interesting if you are interested in such things:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Supposedly they run these 40,000 simulations every time a new state poll comes in. Currently Biden seems to win about 70% of them.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 03:45 PM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:

Supposedly they run these 40,000 simulations every time a new state poll comes in. Currently Biden seems to win about 70% of them.
so a lower chance than hillary by 28%!
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 03:54 PM 09-08-2020
:-)

you clowns and your polls

Langer Research Associates. You know them because they produced the ABC/Washington Post survey that said Hillary was 12 points ahead in 2016. They continue to spew their propaganda. pic.twitter.com/zs84PimYY9

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 8, 2020

[Reply]
RodeoPants2 03:57 PM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
so a lower chance than hillary by 28%!
Do you know what 538s final predicted chances to win for Clinton / Trump in 2016 were?
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 04:03 PM 09-08-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
Do you know what 538s final predicted chances to win for Clinton / Trump in 2016 were?
i don't give a fuck what the "final chances" were bitch

look at this shit

Our polls-only forecast currently gives Hillary Clinton a 88% chance to win the presidency: https://t.co/2uB2oq8m9u pic.twitter.com/oxJ5rIjHQX

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 17, 2016

[Reply]
Hammock Parties 04:46 PM 09-08-2020
whoops! Florida is in the BAG.

A note about the Florida poll today: @maristpoll never had Trump up or tied in Florida in 2016, with an average deficit of 4 points. Same Democratic biases exist in this poll (undercounting white evangelicals, non-college whites, rural whites, especially in panhandle), yet tied.

— Robert Barnes (@Barnes_Law) September 8, 2020


FLORIDA

Among RV:
Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 47%
.
Among LV:
Trump 48%
Biden 48%@maristpoll/@NBCNews 8/31-9/6

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 8, 2020

[Reply]
Eleazar 12:41 AM 09-09-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
Do you know what 538s final predicted chances to win for Clinton / Trump in 2016 were?
538's last "chance of winning" was Clinton 70% / Trump 30%. (give or take a point)

It was about 50/50 before the debates but Clinton got a massive bounce from them, to where after the third debate she'd risen to over 90% in the computer simulations.

After the debate bounce receded she was at 80%, then Comey's press conference took her down to about 65%, and she recovered a bit to finish at 70% chance. Then lost the election because of the rust belt states falling just-so.

70% was probably about right. Anyone winning the popular vote by 2 points seems like they would have 3 chances in 4 of winning. :-)
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