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Washington DC and The Holy Land>2020 General Election Poll Thread
Eleazar 05:17 PM 09-02-2020
Current RCP National Average and 2016 at the same point - 9/24:


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NinerDoug 04:28 PM 09-03-2020
Originally Posted by WhiteWhale:
I've been polled 3 times.

Said I was voting biden all 3 times.

You cant trust it because assholes like me are being poll trolls
12 times for me.

Said Trump every time.
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El Lobo Gordo 04:35 PM 09-03-2020
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
12 times for me.

Said Trump every time.
I call Bullshit. You live in CA. It so blue they don't bother to poll it. The only time you get called during an election is so they can ask you for money.
[Reply]
NinerDoug 04:44 PM 09-03-2020
Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo:
I call Bullshit. You live in CA. It so blue they don't bother to poll it. The only time you get called during an election is so they can ask you for money.
Had a business trip to Milwaukee once. My daughter asked to go along.

Got her a phone there.

She hands it to me when those calls come in.
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Eleazar 04:54 PM 09-03-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
Imagine it's 11/4 and Biden has won, roughly in line with the polls.

What do you plan to say?
If the polls gradually tighten until election day and Trump wins, you claim you were right all along (despite steady evidence that the race changed over time and you were *not* right all along)

If Biden wins a narrow victory, you claim the election was stolen.

Not a terrible position. Heads I win, tails you lose
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Eleazar 11:22 AM 09-04-2020
A whole slew of new polls from this week are in; RCP average now updated for about 10 new post-convention polls.

The RCP average moves a tiny bit in Biden's favor vs earlier this week, it's now Biden +7.1





Looking at only the Likely Voters surveys, you end up with Biden +2, +4, +8, and +10 - some pretty wild variations, but to this point Likely Voters polls still show Biden staked to a lead that averages 5 or 6. The ones with lower stated margins of error seem to center around a Biden lead in this range at the moment.
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Eleazar 11:29 AM 09-04-2020
The Emerson one is interesting, because AFAIR they are the only outfit that's conducted a poll this year that showed Trump leading (back in Feb). Their numbers have varied pretty wildly and now they return better for Trump even than Rasmussen, which positions itself as a pro-Trump poll.

Mentally I'm looking at the recent Likely Voters polls and tossing out the furthest one at either end, and you still end up with the 5 point lead or so.
[Reply]
SFfan79 11:40 AM 09-04-2020
I take the polls with a grain of salt. I've received a number of calls from pollsters over the years and I always hang up on them. I know others that do the same.
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Eleazar 12:02 PM 09-04-2020
Originally Posted by SFfan79:
I take the polls with a grain of salt. I've received a number of calls from pollsters over the years and I always hang up on them. I know others that do the same.
I made this thread so we could track how they change over time and look at it after the fact to see how well the pollsters did. (also to keep poll information from junking up the campaign threads and in one place) Should be interesting to watch how they move through Sept/Oct.
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Randallflagg 12:45 PM 09-04-2020
If polls taught us anything - it is that polls don't really mean a damned thing. Hillary (the witch) found that out on election night. :-)
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Hammock Parties 12:46 PM 09-04-2020
Originally Posted by Randallflagg:
If polls taught us anything - it is that polls don't really mean a damned thing. Hillary (the witch) found that out on election night. :-)
You just have to know how to read them.

Just add 8 points for Trump to every poll.
[Reply]
Randallflagg 12:50 PM 09-04-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
You just have to know how to read them.

Just add 8 points for Trump to every poll.

:-) Indeed.........
[Reply]
Eleazar 12:55 PM 09-04-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
You just have to know how to read them.

Just add 8 points for Trump to every poll.
Once again, here are the final results from 2016, showing perhaps a 2 percent oversampling of Clinton supporters at most. All are correct within the margin of error except the outlying Monmouth poll and the IBD poll that had Trump winning by 2.


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Hammock Parties 12:59 PM 09-04-2020
You are full of crap. Just like the polls right now.

Look at this bullshit. AND WE'RE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO OCTOBER.


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Eleazar 01:05 PM 09-04-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
You are full of crap. Just like the polls right now.

Look at this bullshit. AND WE'RE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO OCTOBER.

I compared the final 2016 polls to the final 2016 results and showed that almost all of them were correct within the margin of error.

You are citing polls from earlier in the campaign. The polls all showed the race tightening over the final two months before Comey's press conference. Those results being different from the final results does not mean they were wrong at the time they were published.
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Hammock Parties 01:14 PM 09-04-2020
Yeah, guess where we're at now? WE'RE EARLIER IN THE CAMPAIGN.

It was bullshit then, and it's bullshit now.

Thanks. For. Playing.
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