ChiefsPlanet Mobile
Page 10 of 43
« First < 678910 1112131420 > Last »
Washington DC and The Holy Land>2020 General Election Poll Thread
Eleazar 05:17 PM 09-02-2020
Current RCP National Average and 2016 at the same point - 9/24:


[Reply]
MahiMike 08:10 PM 09-09-2020
Anyone here ever been polled? Who is getting polled at home? And if you did get polled, did you tell the truth?
[Reply]
GloryDayz 05:56 AM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
Yeah I know this is all you have left. Crawl back in your hole you worthless inbred.
What are you going to do if Biden loses?
[Reply]
GloryDayz 05:58 AM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by MahiMike:
Anyone here ever been polled? Who is getting polled at home? And if you did get polled, did you tell the truth?
I've been polled. I always tell them "Biden, Biden, Biden"...
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:23 AM 09-10-2020
With the current state of the polls, some interesting simulation probabilities from 538:

Trump wins the popular vote 14 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote 86 in 100

Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College <1 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College 11 in 100
No one wins the Electoral College <1 in 100

Their simulations as of today show Biden winning 75% of the simulations and Trump winning 25%. It was 67 / 32 at one point last week.
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:39 AM 09-10-2020
The better polls in what seem like the 4 most important states:


Florida:

Marist released two different samples showing the race even in Florida in one, Trump +1 in the other. The lower rated pollsters seem to find a 3 point or so edge for Biden there but Marist is one of the highest rated polls and this is the only high quality poll in a key state that's shown Trump ahead recently.


Pennsylvania:

Biden ahead in all polls outside the margins of error. Marist has him +8 and +9 in their latest. Monmouth found his lead to be more like 3 or 4, but the B grade polls seem to agree that it's more than 5.


Wisconsin:

The most recent A polls are the Fox polls from last week showing Biden +8 and the B grade polls agree. Even the C polls like Rasmussen and Morning Consult are all measuring a large lead for Biden at this point.


Minnesota:

Survey USA has Biden up by 9 which is what PPP had last week. There was an Emerson poll at the first of August that had Biden only up by 2, but other than this Biden has been as comfortably up in MN as he has been in WI and PA.
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:51 AM 09-10-2020
The national averages probably aren't worth posting anymore so I won't bother unless something changes. Biden has been up in the 7 point range nationally all year and even in a year like 2020 that lead has been stable throughout.

The battleground state polls all seem to follow that - if he finished up by 7 points nationally as he is currently polling there'd be no way for him to lose because it pulls all the swing states in his favor. If something happened to cause his national lead to decrease to 3 or 4 you'd probably have more of a 50/50 given how the states are.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 07:58 AM 09-10-2020
Looking good for Trump in Florida, Michigan, nationally.

FLORIDA DUDE POLL. Florida Trump 52%, Biden 43%.

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 10, 2020


FLORIDA DUDE POLL. Michigan Trump 51%, Biden 44%.

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 10, 2020


FLORIDA DUDE POLL. National Poll (50,000 calls). Trump 50.6%, Biden 42.4%.

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 10, 2020

[Reply]
Eleazar 07:59 AM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
It's private.
So the Florida Dude Polls you hang your hat on are from an anonymous source?
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 08:02 AM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
So the Florida Dude Polls you hang your hat on are from an anonymous source?
You have to accept these third-party polls if you want to get a clear view at the election.

Based on what I'm seeing, the 8-point Democrat bias isn't present in these polls, so you get a better picture.

And remember that this large of a lead for Trump is also showing you the viability of the Helmut Norpoth electoral model, that has proven to be so accurate, and has Trump winning 362 electorals this November.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 01:12 PM 09-10-2020
Oh yeah....Latinos for TRUMP

FLORIDA DUDE POLL. Arizona Trump 49%, Biden 42%.

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 10, 2020


Remember when Iowa was a swing state....

FLORIDA DUDE POLL. Iowa Trump 54%, Biden 36%.

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 10, 2020


FLORIDA DUDE POLL. Ohio Trump 52%, Biden 40%.

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 10, 2020

[Reply]
Hammock Parties 05:29 PM 09-10-2020
Michigan is definitely going red.

Pubes will retain the Senate, and pick houses in Congress. Don't know if they'll flip it.

FLORIDA DUDE POLL. Michigan Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Gary Peters 44%, Republican Challenger John James 50%.

— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) September 10, 2020

[Reply]
Ninerfan11 05:34 PM 09-10-2020
We need Tom Cotton on the SCOTUS yo
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 05:36 PM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by Ninerfan11:
We need Tom Cotton on the SCOTUS yo
libs would be screaming :-)
[Reply]
cosmo20002 05:39 PM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
You have to accept these third-party polls if you want to get a clear view at the election.

Based on what I'm seeing, the 8-point Democrat bias isn't present in these polls, so you get a better picture.

And remember that this large of a lead for Trump is also showing you the viability of the Helmut Norpoth electoral model, that has proven to be so accurate, and has Trump winning 362 electorals this November.
:-)
You're pretty funny, I'll give you that.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 07:50 AM 09-11-2020
I admit, there's a chance Florida Dude is a complete shyster.

However, given the polls from 2016, and the absolute SUPREMACY of the Helmut Norpoth model...do you really want to dismiss this data?

Remember who you're trusting. They have burned you before.



I can only open the door, you have to walk through it.

Does this guy look like has an agenda?


[Reply]
Page 10 of 43
« First < 678910 1112131420 > Last »
Up