Originally Posted by htismaqe:
The bigger concern is not the red zone offense, it's the red zone defense.
The Bills allow a TD on 60.6% of red zone trips, and again are much better at home (54.3%) than on the road (67.7%).
However, the Chiefs are giving up TD's a whopping 77.5% of the time and 84% at home. That number was 53.3% last year.
I kind of hate red zone stats. (but luckily still have Chiefs stats from the Browns match up)
2020 regular season
Chiefs on offense
68% (36/53) of the Chiefs' touchdowns have come from the red zone.
Chiefs red zone offense - 14th -- 36/59 -- 61%
Bills on defense
88% (38/43) of the Bills' touchdowns against have come from the red zone.
Bills red zone defense - 28th -- 38/58 -- 65.5%
Bills on offense
75% (42/56) of their touchdowns have come from the red zone.
Bills red zone offense -- 13th -- 42/68 -- 61%
Chiefs on defense
84% (36/43) of the Chiefs' TDs against have been from the red zone.
Chiefs red zone defense 32nd -- 36/47 -- 77%
I would love to do a "most reliant on red zone touchdowns/red zone stops", but I'm using lineups.com for stats and they use Flash, so it's not easily copy/pastable... and I'm not doing all that shit manually.
The most interesting part is the Bills are tied for the most red zone attempts in the league with the Saints and have a higher percentage of relying on those attempts.... OTOH, the Chiefs defense is 6th best at preventing red zone attempts, even if teams often score once they do get there.
The Bills are middle of the pack when it comes to red zone attempts against (only a few off the Browns), but the Chiefs aren't as reliant on getting there. The stats seem to suggest you need to get down there to score, but the Browns were 37/47 (78%) in that regard, so meh.
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If I ever make an "Abolish these Narratives" thread, red zone percentages will be in there.... they are fickle for most of the season due to small sample sizes (a few more/less touchdowns can move you 10+ spots easily), and they don't account for the fact that a bend-but-don't-break type of defense might not give up a ton of chances in the red zone, where as another team might routinely have teams drive into the red zone, even if they make more stops.
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