Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
After watching this video, I just don't find those kinds of visualizations to be all that helpful. It really comes down to, "If people isolate, you break the curve. If you don't, everyone pretty much grows at the same rate."
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
It isnt even April yet.
You really feel confident saying we're going to see a nationwide increase in death rates for 30 more days?
**** man - that's going to yield, what, 50,000 dead per day by the end of April?
Yes, this will peak in April. If it doesn't then all this social distancing for 6 weeks stuff meant nothing and we were all ****ed either way.
I'm afraid it might not matter because it'll turn out that people really didn't follow the social distancing. The countries that shut this down were literally shut down. Temperature checks everywhere, etc. We haven't really done that. We see multiple examples a day from around the country where people are interacting in large numbers. [Reply]
Originally Posted by eDave:
I never bought into that idea. Our general flu season is stretching further into the summer too. Like into July when it is consistently 100+
Originally Posted by tk13:
I'm afraid it might not matter because it'll turn out that people really didn't follow the social distancing. The countries that shut this down were literally shut down. Temperature checks everywhere, etc. We haven't really done that. We see multiple examples a day from around the country where people are interacting in large numbers.
I agree with that, there are enough people that don't give a fuck to screw it all up. [Reply]
Originally Posted by eDave:
I never bought into that idea. Our general flu season is stretching further into the summer too. Like into July when it is consistently 100+
Well what I am referring to is places that are around the equator or where they are in or just coming out of summer are still having a lot of cases. [Reply]
We really don't know anything. All those numbers thrown out are meaningless without more testing. Who knows how many of us have had the shit and don't know. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
Nobody actually knows though. :-)
In glancing around, their model generally shows that everyone will level off by June. I assume that it's all based on social distancing rather than heat effects, which aren't well known.
The Bill Gates TED interview helped me wrap my mind around it a bit. Exponential growth is highly volatile, so if R0 > 1, it grows very, very rapidly. However, if we can get R0 < 1 due to social distancing, it shrinks very, very rapidly. So that's really all we're trying to do with social distancing - shrink R0 as much as possible.
Once we get it under control (hopefully with dramatically increased access to testing), we can start slowly easing back restrictions. Cases go up? Restrictions go back into place. Cases stay low? Restrictions can be eased. It'll be a dance while we continue to learn more and refine the approach and treatments. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
I'm afraid it might not matter because it'll turn out that people really didn't follow the social distancing. The countries that shut this down were literally shut down. Temperature checks everywhere, etc. We haven't really done that. We see multiple examples a day from around the country where people are interacting in large numbers.
that is what I am saying. Non of the people I know got to work from home nor take 2 weeks off. On top of that every other place I know is open except for bars and salons. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
I'm afraid it might not matter because it'll turn out that people really didn't follow the social distancing. The countries that shut this down were literally shut down. Temperature checks everywhere, etc. We haven't really done that. We see multiple examples a day from around the country where people are interacting in large numbers.
Unemployment rates and baseline economic indicators say that yes,the vast majority of people have fundamentally altered their lives to address this.
'Multiple examples per day' is nothing resembling the hundreds of conferences involving thousands of attendees or dozens of sporting events involving tens of thousands of spectators every day.
If what we've done isnt enough, then there was never 'an answer' to be found.
We've done a shitload but for some, nothing will be. If only because their expectations were unreasonable to begin with.
It's a novel virus that attacks people's lungs. A bunch of people are going to die. That was simply inevitable. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Unemployment rates and baseline economic indicators say that yes,the vast majority of people have fundamentally altered their lives to address this.
'Multiple examples per day' is nothing resembling the hundreds of conferences involving thousands of attendees or dozens of sporting events involving tens of thousands of spectators every day.
If what we've done isnt enough, then there was never 'an answer' to be found.
We've done a shitload but for some, nothing will be. If only because their expectations were unreasonable to begin with.
It's a novel virus that attacks people's lungs. A bunch of people are going to die. That was simply inevitable.
You were never going to completely stop it. But it's likely it could have been stunted.
Singapore has like 3 deaths. Total. Yeah it's a country of only 5 million people but 3 deaths is nothing. That's the equivalent of about 200 deaths in America. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
In glancing around, their model generally shows that everyone will level off by June. I assume that it's all based on social distancing rather than heat effects, which aren't well known.
The Bill Gates TED interview helped me wrap my mind around it a bit. Exponential growth is highly volatile, so if R0 > 1, it grows very, very rapidly. However, if we can get R0 < 1 due to social distancing, it shrinks very, very rapidly. So that's really all we're trying to do with social distancing - shrink R0 as much as possible.
Once we get it under control (hopefully with dramatically increased access to testing), we can start slowly easing back restrictions. Cases go up? Restrictions go back into place. Cases stay low? Restrictions can be eased. It'll be a dance while we continue to learn more and refine the approach and treatments.
Well said. And, I wish every American (and every human) understood and would do EVERYTHING they can to make the bold become reality. I know many people feel helpless in this. They aren't. We can't kill this bug yet, but we can take away its "purpose." It isn't intelligent. It isn't even alive. All of us are the latter. In the words of MJK, do what it takes to step through, people. [Reply]
