Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by TLO:
That seems like a pretty steady incline, but I'm not seeing the "doubling" rates that people were discussing previously.
The initial estimates were that it would double about every 6 days. Hopefully we can flatten that out substantially by adopting sensible preventive measures (and not panicking.) [Reply]
Come on, who runs that? Hows it updated? Its not the "wuhanvirus" its called the coronavirus. Right wing conservatives are trying to get "wuhanvirus" to trend for some reason.
I've posted a non-partisan USA based tracking site by the medical professionals at John Hopkins.
Originally Posted by FD:
The initial estimates were that it would double about every 6 days. Hopefully we can flatten that out substantially by adopting sensible preventive measures (and not panicking.)
Currently, thousands of planes are flying empty back and forth doing ghost flights during the coronavirus outbreak due to a bizarre and ridiculous rule that forces airlines to use at least 80% of their landing slots or risk losing them.
The “use it or lose it” rule goes like this: an airline must use at least 80% of their allocated slots or it may lose them to rival airlines.
While it makes for a competitive market during regular flights, the decreased demand caused by coronavirus concerns is taking its toll on the aviation industry. With an expectancy of losing $113 billion in revenue this year, airlines are going to extreme measures.
[...]
I don't know about that. My wife works for the airlines and they are running at 50% capacity internationally and 60% capacity domestically right now out of SFO. Empty, I suppose it's possible but not the norm.
My sister just flew in from Sydney to SFO. Round trip $600. She could sleep on on 3 seats. Approximately 25% capacity.
It's a great time to travel as long as you were not born scared. Flying is free for me so I wish I could take more time off now but I won't be able to until May. San Diego is looking good right now.
Traffic picked back up today in SF. I think people are growing tired of the over hype. There seems to be two kinds of people here, born scared and pooping their pants and those that don't give a fuck. Muay Thai was the biggest class ever last night. [Reply]
I don't post a lot on facebook but I would like to give my perspective and context on the coronavirus outbreak. I hope I can be a more reputable source of perspective as a physician who specializes and is board certified in immunology (as well as pediatrics, allergy and dermatology).
1. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses. "coronavirus" is not unique to this particular strain. Everyone reading this has likely had another different coronavirus infection. This particular strain has been named COVID-19.
2. Every upper respiratory virus has the potential to be lethal. Patients unfortunately die from many upper respiratory viral infections every year - most prominently the influenza virus. 30,000 people died from the influenza virus in 2019. The media didn't report each one. They have reported all 11 coronavirus deaths. Not telling us about the people lost but rather keeping a death "toll".
Let me repeat that:
-Coronavirus: 11 deaths (US in 2020), 3300 deaths (China in 2020).
-Influenza: 30,000 deaths (US in 2019).
*Influenza pandemic of 1918: 675,000! (US), 20-50 MILLION!! (worldwide) <---These people I think would have been in favor of receiving their annual flu vaccine.
This is not meant to minimize any of these deaths but rather to give context and put some facts to the hysteria.
3. If you're healthy, there is no need to walk around wearing a mask. In addition to looking silly and most of the time wearing/taking them off wrong - which would actually make you more prone to acquiring an infection, they don't prevent you from getting sick. If you're actually sick stay away from people and then, sure, wear a mask so you aren't spreading respiratory droplets every time you cough/sneeze. In medicine we don't wear the masks you're buying and we wear other protective equipment - not just a silly looking mask you found on Amazon. When you see doctor's walking around the world wearing a mask then you should too. Until then, stop.
4. The symptoms are that of the flu. As doctors we don't test or know about most people with mild or moderate flu symptoms. That means most people will probably get it and just think they had the flu. That means you're only going to hear about the cases that get serious - not all the minor ones which will be the vast majority of cases.
5. When it is said that people who are older or have other medical conditions are most likely to die - that is equally true for EVERY upper respiratory virus. There is nothing unique about that to this particular virus. It does mean that the only cases we tend to know about are the severe ones. Once a case is severe it then makes sense to test the patient to find out what virus in particular they have. That means you can easily overestimate how severe or lethal the virus is because the only cases you end up knowing about are the serious ones.
In summary 30,000 people died from the flu last year. Another 30,000 died in car accidents.
I remember: H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), Coronavirus (2020).
Take it from me: The poor resident who stood at the door of the ER to triage people in 2009's swine flu (H1N1) hysteria. The over reaction is exponentially worse than the actual problem and in 2020 the over reactions I'm seeing are remarkable. In cold and flu season you'll probably get sick once or twice for about a week each. You might even get this particular coronavirus and most of you won't even know it. I've seen people raiding supermarkets, major meetings and sporting events getting cancelled and fear/racism towards Asian people. These reactions are totally unnecessary and panic based. Just do what you've always done during cold/flu season. Stay away from other people when you're sick, wash your hands and keep them away from your face, and only go to the ER if you feel your symptoms are more severe than a bad cold/flu (shortness of breath, high fever, etc.). And also realize you can't live on earth and not get viral illnesses from time to time. It's a part of nature.
Please don't ask for antibiotics (those treat bacteria - not viruses). Thats like asking for a fire extinguisher when you're drowning. It can be a life saving device - but the wrong one for the problem at hand. Some doctor's don't want to fight about it when patients insist on antibiotics so they just prescribe them - but it doesn't mean its actually helping you and in some cases they can be harmful (resistance, infections, allergic reactions just to name a few). If you're one who asks for antibiotics every time you're sick, again, take it from me: ask for a flu shot each year and a doctor's note to stay home from work when you're sick instead. You will be much better off.
The government is very proud that testing will be available to every American. Remember, we don't test for any respiratory virus other than the influenza virus routinely. The reason is thats the only virus that has a treatment (pill) you can take to shorten the duration of severity of the illness. I suspect if we start testing everyone with cold symptoms for coronavirus we're going to find lots of it. It's not going to change the recommendations to stay home and rest. And its not going to predict the small percentage of people who may develop more severe symptoms. Essentially whether someone has coronavirus 19 or some other cold/flu virus isn't going to matter to your doctor. What it will do is slam urgent cares, ER's and hospitals with every patient who has a cold so they can be tested. It is much more sensible to reserve testing for patients requiring hospitalization or more advanced treatments. Even that wouldn't change their management but would be more to confirm the diagnosis and to not waste time looking for other causes of the patients symptoms.
In conclusion, yes there is a novel virus that our immune systems haven't seen yet so to get immune to it you will have to get infected - at least until a vaccine is developed to bypass the getting sick part and just jumping straight to immune. Most people's immune systems will do that effectively and be fine. A small percentage of unfortunate patients (primarily elderly, immune compromised etc.) will not be able to do that effectively and will need more advanced care. This is true of the cold/flu viruses we deal with every year. Follow normal cold/flu precautions and seek medical care if you feel your symptoms are severe. No need to get hysterical.
These outbreaks can be instructive for overall knowledge of public health. In particular showing your immune system the uniform of a potential invader (virus) so that if it ever sees a soldier wearing that uniform it will immediately attack and neutralize it without you ever getting sick. That is a wonderful thing and probably the single biggest achievement in medicine throughout human history. That is what vaccines are. The benefit to risk ratio of them are off the charts in favor of vaccines. If viruses like coronavirus scare you, then stay up to date on your vaccines and your immune system will be running the latest software.
If you still think you should be scared consider this: Doctors, nurses and other healthcare staff are going to hospitals every day. Crowded buildings with tons of sick people. They aren't walking around the halls of the hospitals wearing masks and they haven't stopped going to work. And they are all rolling their eyes at everyone else right now.
Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY:
I don't know about that. My wife works for the airlines and they are running at 50% capacity internationally and 60% capacity domestically right now out of SFO. Empty, I suppose it's possible but not the norm.
My sister just flew in from Sydney to SFO. Round trip $600. She could sleep on on 3 seats. Approximately 25% capacity.
It's a great time to travel as long as you were not born scared. Flying is free for me so I wish I could take more time off now but I won't be able to until May. San Diego is looking good right now.
Traffic picked back up today in SF. I think people are growing tired of the over hype. There seems to be two kinds of people here, born scared and pooping their pants and those that don't give a ****. Muay Thai was the biggest class ever last night.
Originally Posted by burt:
BIG_DADDY, these guys are weak and love the pile on. Just keep on being you. I appreciate it.... They just pick scabs and hope to chum the water.
Thanks bud. The dichotomy of my real life from here couldn't be further apart. I have been super blessed in almost every way. If I die tomorrow I had a very good life. I could care less what some clowns on the internet have to say or make up. I still get to go back and live my life. They still have to go back and live theirs. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
That seems like a pretty steady incline, but I'm not seeing the "doubling" rates that people were discussing previously.
We literally do not have enough test kits for anything to "double".
The fact that people are returning from areas of the U.S. where supposedly the coronavirus isn't present and coming BACK with the coronavirus shows it's much more widespread than we're able to report.
This isn't to freak anyone out - just the reality. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY:
Thanks bud. The dichotomy of my real life from here couldn't be further apart. I have been super blessed in almost every way. If I die tomorrow I had a very good life. I could care less what some clowns on the internet have to say or make up. I still get to go back and live my life. They still have to go back and live theirs.
This can't be a real person, can it? Anti vaxx, anti-CDC, pro-Jim and Tammy Fay, an adult in a martial arts class in a country full of guns, and now the classic "could care less." [Reply]
They need to focus on containing the virus. Battling the virus. Instead of meeting and spending time on bailouts of companies. Fix the problem not a side effect of the problem.
We haven’t even tested more than a small % of our citizens for the virus. Focus on peoples health first. Get this contained and then deal with the repercussions.
The economy will be right back where it was when this is contained. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
If you are under 60 you're gonna be fine, even if you get it.
Shut the **** up.
A male 30-39 years old has a 3 to 4 out of 1,000 chance of dying from this. Not very acceptable.
If it was 0.2 out of 1,000 chance like the flu, probably not too worried and a reasonable risk. We don't want this to be a regular thing like the flu. If it does, hundreds of thousands will die.
There is no need to cancel sporting events. Just play without crowds. Most people think the NCAA or NBA not having crowds is some protection for the players. The players are fine. They don't interact with the fans. They take charters, etc. 80,000 people in Arrowhead even with Covid-19 aren't going to give Kendall Fuller the virus.
If we are limiting media exposure & no fans interacting with fans, that is a good step for the players but it's more of a public service for big events to temporarily shut down.
Put USA on lockdown for 1 month for big groups, and this thing might be squashed. But you have to mean business. You can't just all lackadaisical and trusting that people will voluntary self quarantine. Most people don't give a shit about people they don't know and will not take the proper precautions. The economy is cyclical. It will go down, and once this is mitigated it will sky rocket once again.
With internet, Amazon Prime and the like. We have never been more equipped in human history to not leave our homes unless for work or emergencies. Anybody that can WFA, should, NOW. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mennonite:
This can't be a real person, can it? Anti vaxx, anti-CDC, pro-Jim and Tammy Fay, an adult in a martial arts class in a country full of guns, and now the classic "could care less."
Endlessly posting lies like what has been going on this entire thread doesn't change anything. I have been saying I am not Anti-vax for 20 years now yet this BS persists. Saying you don't trust everything the CDC says is not anti-CDC. Martial arts is a great lifestyle and workout. I quit competing at 47 though. I'm old dude. I was at my sons class. I am not sure what you have against training. [Reply]