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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

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AustinChief 06:50 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by jaa1025:
I don't even trust deaths because if someone is dying from heart disease, for example, he will count as a COVID death if he test positive regardless if he was showing symptoms.
True but the figures for deaths are far more accurate that the number of cases. Estimates range from 5x-100x as many cases go undetected as those that are detected.
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Titty Meat 06:52 PM 03-30-2020
I walked 5 miles today people dont know personal space especially the bums
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BigRedChief 06:53 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
If that data is based on new cases it is useless. Our increase in new cases could be entirely a function of increased testing. Right now the only stat that I trust is deaths. I highly doubt there are many Covid deaths that are going unreported.

Does anyone have deaths broken out by nation and charted on a logarithmic scale?
I’m sure there are a lot of deaths at the first of this outbreak that occurred because of the virus and the person was never tested for the coronavirus.
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Kman34 06:57 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by srvy:
Last I heard Swope Memorial and Shoal Creek in Missouri are. You have to reserve and pay online clubhouse and driving range closed no carts walk only. Shoal Creek is a nice public course and Swope is short tight and hilly.
Played Winterstone Sunday.. get your own cart if you want.. they say they have sanitized them but all I saw is a kid wiping them with a wet towel.. not sure what was on the towel so I used a Clorox wipe on mine.. still lots of guys riding together.. Course was busy.. leave the flagstick in and a raised piece of plastic keeps you from touching the cup..my foursome didn’t get within 6 ft of each other..
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Bearcat 07:05 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
It’s been near 90 degrees with humidity almost every day the past two weeks here and that hasn’t had much impact.
Based on what though? Two weeks isn't anything when it can take two weeks to start showing symptoms.

Considering it's hanging out at roughly 100° inside, I'd think the heat on the outside has much more to do with spreading it via surfaces... and without massive testing for those not showing symptoms, I don't think you could draw any conclusions on the spread of the virus for approximately a month.
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O.city 07:06 PM 03-30-2020
They’re gonna start random serology testing here quickly. That will be interesting to see
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Bearcat 07:06 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by eDave:
Bring on the triple digits - Said no one ever
Bring on the triple digits - Says everyone now
I fucking hate winter, bring it on.
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srvy 07:09 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by Kman34:
Played Winterstone Sunday.. get your own cart if you want.. they say they have sanitized them but all I saw is a kid wiping them with a wet towel.. not sure what was on the towel so I used a Clorox wipe on mine.. still lots of guys riding together.. Course was busy.. leave the flagstick in and a raised piece of plastic keeps you from touching the cup..my foursome didn’t get within 6 ft of each other..
I have worked often in the former Lafarge deep limestone mine. We took a drive by that course looked pretty nice but haven't played it.
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mr. tegu 07:12 PM 03-30-2020
It seems pretty clear to me at this point that the heat effects this as it does other similar viruses. Australia hasn’t seen nearly the growth as other countries that have been dealing with it for a similar amount of time.
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BigRedChief 07:16 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
It seems pretty clear to me at this point that the heat effects this as it does other similar viruses. Australia hasn’t seen nearly the growth as other countries that have been dealing with it for a similar amount of time.
its been hot down here, mid 80’s- High 80’s, for a couple of weeks. Miami is turning into a major hotspot.
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cdcox 07:17 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
If that data is based on new cases it is useless. Our increase in new cases could be entirely a function of increased testing. Right now the only stat that I trust is deaths. I highly doubt there are many Covid deaths that are going unreported.

Does anyone have deaths broken out by nation and charted on a logarithmic scale?
Interestingly, increased testing has very minimal impact on this kind of analysis, because the increased discovery of cases affects both the x and y axis. Here is an example where I created some simulated data and increased the percent discovery from 10% to 15% at a certain point in time. It's hard to detect where I introduced the change. Whereas if we truly break away from exponential growth, it will be obvious in the curve. This is a very sensitive way of detecting when social distancing has kicked in and we are no longer in exponential growth.

The problem with looking at deaths is that it will introduce an additional lag of 2 weeks compared to new tests.

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Bearcat 07:20 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
its been hot down here, mid 80’s- High 80’s, for a couple of weeks. Miami is turning into a major hotspot.
It can take that long just to start showing symptoms, so outside of testing everyone in Miami multiple times, you're not going to learn anything about how fast it's spreading for at least 3-4 weeks from the time it's deemed 'warm enough' (and I have no clue what that is, exactly).
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mr. tegu 07:23 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
its been hot down here, mid 80’s- High 80’s, for a couple of weeks. Miami is turning into a major hotspot.

Define hotspot though. Obviously there will be growth everywhere but the rate is what matters and just based on the numbers Florida as a whole is nothing like New York.
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BWillie 07:33 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by LiveSteam:
**** it then.
Im rock-en a mullet..


This is my hair cut. Really not hard to do after it's first cut.The problem is going to arise in about a month or two though. I have no way to really cut the top very well.
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TLO 07:35 PM 03-30-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
They’re gonna start random serology testing here quickly. That will be interesting to see
What locations?
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