I mean goddamn this conference seems wrapped up doesn’t it? Not trying to jinx us but it really seems like injuries are our biggest opponent at this point.
The Ravens are fucking frauds. They’re a warm up for us. We literally made these guys look like the JV squad the last 2 meetings.
And sure the Bills and Titans may make us work for the win, but in all honesty we have to play pretty goddamn shitty to lose to those guys.
In order to have any shot at beating us you need 3 things:
1. Elite pass rush
2. Top 10 QB capable of making critical plays
3. Overall talented roster
Steelers are the only team in the AFC that has those 3 things, and even them it’s not like they’re some serious threat like the Patriots a couple years back, but they seem like the best of the rest.
I think at this point it would be disappointing for this team to not get to the SB 3 straight times.
We’re just that good, and we keep drafting well and get better and better. [Reply]
Y'know, maybe it's just selective memory because this shit happened to the Ravens, but I'm not so sure having a double bye where you rest main starters week 17 and also get the first round bye is all that it's cracked up to be. It seems that you gain rest and health but also accompany that with just a little bit of rust you have to shake off.
I think one week of rest is just about perfect.
Yes, there's risk of injury, but the risk of losing in the playoffs because your team lost its mental edge and toughness is worse. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RealSNR:
Y'know, maybe it's just selective memory because this shit happened to the Ravens, but I'm not so sure having a double bye where you rest main starters week 17 and also get the first round bye is all that it's cracked up to be. It seems that you gain rest and health but also accompany that with just a little bit of rust you have to shake off.
I think one week of rest is just about perfect.
Yes, there's risk of injury, but the risk of losing in the playoffs because your team lost its mental edge and toughness is worse.
I don't see us being able to rest starters against the Chargers. There's going to be contention for the #1 seed probably until the very end. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Yeah, that's where most people seem to get it wrong. The idea is not, "we'll limit the Chiefs to 20 points because we stole a couple possessions from them by running/grinding out long drives." Because the Chiefs, with just 9 possessions are going to average at least 30 points. They've been doing it all year. And last year.
The idea is more about no one thinks they can score 40+, so 30 points is just more manageable. BUT the opposing teams must then increase their scoring efficiency so that they can score at least 30 points, just to be in the game at the end. Then try to steal the game in the last quarter.
But if you give the Chiefs 11,12 possessions, then the math simply states that the Chiefs will average more than 40 points, and the odds of keeping up become terribly small.
So you keep the Chiefs to 8-9 possessions, and hope KC splits their TDs and FGs between 5-6 scores.
Sunday, the Chiefs scored 6 out of 9 possessions, but only a single TD. If just one of Hill's erased TDs had counted, the final score would've been 31-16. Still a manageable score for the best scoring teams. Anymore than that, and the list of teams that can keep up gets pretty small.
Great conversation points. Limiting possessions doesn't work - scoring per possession does. With exception of 2nd paragraph below, you get the same number of possessions. Who is better about amount of points per possession they have than the Chiefs? Its an old school mentality to just keep the ball out of their hands, but doesn't really work. You still have fewer possessions too, and you're less efficient scoring on them. You beat a great team like KC by maximizing your possessions - playing balls to the wall like Carolina did, and get fortunate enough. Think Eagles in Super Bowl against NE a few years ago. Might lose your shirt, but its what you have to do to beat great teams. Don't punt, don't kick FGs, except in low odds situations.
Another really important opportunity to overachieve is to get one more meaningful possession in the half you get the opening kickoff in, and even out the meaningful possessions in the half the opposition gets the opening kickoff. Gives you one more chance to score. Ive noticed lately that the Chiefs are generally good at doing this TO opponents, which makes them even more deadly.
Overall, I think I read it here in this thread - you only can really beat KC with great QB play of your own. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Azide22:
Great conversation points. Limiting possessions doesn't work - scoring per possession does. With exception of 2nd paragraph below, you get the same number of possessions. Who is better about amount of points per possession they have than the Chiefs? Its an old school mentality to just keep the ball out of their hands, but doesn't really work. You still have fewer possessions too, and you're less efficient scoring on them. You beat a great team like KC by maximizing your possessions - playing balls to the wall like Carolina did, and get fortunate enough. Think Eagles in Super Bowl against NE a few years ago. Might lose your shirt, but its what you have to do to beat great teams. Don't punt, don't kick FGs, except in low odds situations.
Another really important opportunity to overachieve is to get one more meaningful possession in the half you get the opening kickoff in, and even out the meaningful possessions in the half the opposition gets the opening kickoff. Gives you one more chance to score. Ive noticed lately that the Chiefs are generally good at doing this TO opponents, which makes them even more deadly.
Overall, I think I read it here in this thread - you only can really beat KC with great QB play of your own.
Our offense is capable of doing so much, so quickly that I think it puts pressure on opposing offenses to keep up. A lot of times it causes the OC to overthink things and get away from what their teams typically do. The pressure to maximize scoring for four quarters has got to be overwhelming. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Stryker:
and that is why I asked. It is crazy that we get this far and have hope in the Steelers losing and it comes down to the Saints and Chargers. I feel the same way. The Saints will have Brees back and the Chargers game, to me, feels like the Dolphins and Patriots game last season. Fingers crossed! :-)
The Steelers have a tough schedule coming up. In their last four they play the Bills and Browns. I think they play the Giants as well. I expect the Steelers to have at least 3 losses.
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Saints aren’t a great matchup for us. I don’t think our DL would get any pressure on the QB. Their OL is outstanding.
Said before that they are the Raiders with a much better defense.
I disagree. Their defense is good but not better than SFs last year. The Saints are winning with Hill because the teams playing them are not used to a QB like him. KC has faced a similar QB three years in a row. Hill is basically Lamar Jackson. He's a plus runner (although Jackson is the more dynamic runner of the two) and an average to below average passer. Even if Brees were to come back I would not be worried. He's old and a shell of what he used to be. Coming off a collapsed lung and cracked ribs he would not even be close to 100% ready to go. The one offensive threat KC needs to focus on will be Kamara as I don't think Hill can effectively feed Thomas the ball enough to make us worry. [Reply]
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
The Saints are a very, very good team. Of any of them, they're the most likely loss. I'm always a little wary of the Chargers, they always seem to play us tough.
We should beat the Dolphins and Falcons.
This completely. The Chiefs should beat MIA and ATL although both are not givens. The NO will be one of their toughest games of the season although I give KC the advantage due to NOs QB situation. The Chargers are a toss up. They always play KC tough so a win is not a given and depending on Pittsburgh, that game may or may not mean anything. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mav:
The Steelers have a tough schedule coming up. In their last four they play the Bills and Browns. I think they play the Giants as well. I expect the Steelers to have at least 3 losses.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Bengals, Bills, Browns, and Colts.
That's an advantage to the Chiefs because they're all AFC games, whereas the Chiefs only have 2 AFC games left. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Basileus777:
What? The opposite is true, Kamara's receiving numbers have plummeted in games Hill has started.
My bad, I was thinking of the first Atlanta game. It wasn't Kamara, it was Murray and he only had 2 catches. It was just one of them was 25 yards. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
I’m pretty confident if the chiefs finish 3-1 with the loss being to an nfc team they lock up the 1 seed.
I’m not sure but what the Steelers don’t lose 2 more anyway. That’s a tough schedule.
The colts and bills are playing for their playoff lives with teams right on their heels and the Browns are similar.
Not only that, but Cleveland is currently two games behind Pittsburgh. If they can beat Baltimore this week there is a distinct possibility their game against Pittsburgh in Week 17 could be for the AFCN. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tredadda:
I disagree. Their defense is good but not better than SFs last year. The Saints are winning with Hill because the teams playing them are not used to a QB like him. KC has faced a similar QB three years in a row. Hill is basically Lamar Jackson. He's a plus runner (although Jackson is the more dynamic runner of the two) and an average to below average passer. Even if Brees were to come back I would not be worried. He's old and a shell of what he used to be. Coming off a collapsed lung and cracked ribs he would not even be close to 100% ready to go. The one offensive threat KC needs to focus on will be Kamara as I don't think Hill can effectively feed Thomas the ball enough to make us worry.
I went back to look at how wrong I was about Hill connecting with Kamara and found that in 2 games with Hill at QB, Michael Thomas had 9 catches for 104 yards and 9 catches for 105 yards.
I'm not worried about Brees. He's probably not even going to play and if he does, he's going to be rusty, tentative, and probably sore.
I think people are underestimating Hill. He's not Lamar Jackson really at all. He's much bigger and stronger. He has the same struggles in the passing game, though. [Reply]
