I mean goddamn this conference seems wrapped up doesn’t it? Not trying to jinx us but it really seems like injuries are our biggest opponent at this point.
The Ravens are fucking frauds. They’re a warm up for us. We literally made these guys look like the JV squad the last 2 meetings.
And sure the Bills and Titans may make us work for the win, but in all honesty we have to play pretty goddamn shitty to lose to those guys.
In order to have any shot at beating us you need 3 things:
1. Elite pass rush
2. Top 10 QB capable of making critical plays
3. Overall talented roster
Steelers are the only team in the AFC that has those 3 things, and even them it’s not like they’re some serious threat like the Patriots a couple years back, but they seem like the best of the rest.
I think at this point it would be disappointing for this team to not get to the SB 3 straight times.
We’re just that good, and we keep drafting well and get better and better. [Reply]
Originally Posted by mililo4cpa:
This....made similar points in the "Let's Talk Dolphins" thread.....other than the Colts game, every team that beat us had to score 29+ points AND force a boatload of mistakes.....
this non-sense of "slowing the game down" hasn't worked at all other than that Colts game
Well, every team since late last year has tried to take possessions away from the Chiefs, and many of them are limiting KC to less than 10 possessions. For comparison, most NFL games have each team getting 11+ possessions. Last night each team got something like 14.
But if you can limit the Chiefs to 9 possessions or so, and if the Chiefs only score to about their average per possession, the damage is kind of capped at 35 points. But if you give KC more than 10, then the Chiefs average about 40 points.
So limiting Chiefs' possessions does make some sense. Just not exactly the way a lot of people think. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Well, every team since late last year has tried to take possessions away from the Chiefs, and many of them are limiting KC to less than 10 possessions. For comparison, most NFL games have each team getting 11+ possessions. Last night each team got something like 14.
But if you can limit the Chiefs to 9 possessions or so, and if the Chiefs only score to about their average per possession, the damage is kind of capped at 35 points. But if you give KC more than 10, then the Chiefs average about 40 points.
So limiting Chiefs' possessions does make some sense. Just not exactly the way a lot of people think.
I agree that it definitely "makes sense" as a viable strategy from a logical perspective...
But, Patrick Mahomes has lost a total of 8 games he's started....7 of those took the opposition 29+ points to win....and all of those were one score games
so, It's not some proven formula that has worked time and time again....it has worked one time, and with a boatload of factors that currently don't exist today
Case in point: Panthers had 38 minutes of possession time to Chiefs 22 minutes....about as much as one team can dominate TOP....Chiefs still scored 33 and won. Sure, it gave the Panthers a chance to win, but it wasn't because they stopped the Chiefs offense. Same could be said about the first Raiders game....the TOP was close, but Fade still owned the advantage....Chiefs still scored 32.....Those teams were in it because they put up points, not because they limited the possessions.... [Reply]
Originally Posted by mililo4cpa:
I agree that it definitely "makes sense" as a viable strategy from a logical perspective...
But, Patrick Mahomes has lost a total of 8 games he's started....7 of those took the opposition 29+ points to win....and all of those were one score games
so, It's not some proven formula that has worked time and time again....it has worked one time, and with a boatload of factors that currently don't exist today
Yeah, that's where most people seem to get it wrong. The idea is not, "we'll limit the Chiefs to 20 points because we stole a couple possessions from them by running/grinding out long drives." Because the Chiefs, with just 9 possessions are going to average at least 30 points. They've been doing it all year. And last year.
The idea is more about no one thinks they can score 40+, so 30 points is just more manageable. BUT the opposing teams must then increase their scoring efficiency so that they can score at least 30 points, just to be in the game at the end. Then try to steal the game in the last quarter.
But if you give the Chiefs 11,12 possessions, then the math simply states that the Chiefs will average more than 40 points, and the odds of keeping up become terribly small.
So you keep the Chiefs to 8-9 possessions, and hope KC splits their TDs and FGs between 5-6 scores.
Sunday, the Chiefs scored 6 out of 9 possessions, but only a single TD. If just one of Hill's erased TDs had counted, the final score would've been 31-16. Still a manageable score for the best scoring teams. Anymore than that, and the list of teams that can keep up gets pretty small. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Yeah, that's where most people seem to get it wrong. The idea is not, "we'll limit the Chiefs to 20 points because we stole a couple possessions from them by running/grinding out long drives." Because the Chiefs, with just 9 possessions are going to average at least 30 points. They've been doing it all year. And last year.
The idea is more about no one thinks they can score 40+, so 30 points is just more manageable. BUT the opposing teams must then increase their scoring efficiency so that they can score at least 30 points, just to be in the game at the end. Then try to steal the game in the last quarter.
But if you give the Chiefs 11,12 possessions, then the math simply states that the Chiefs will average more than 40 points, and the odds of keeping up become terribly small.
So you keep the Chiefs to 8-9 possessions, and hope KC splits their TDs and FGs between 5-6 scores.
Sunday, the Chiefs scored 6 out of 9 possessions, but only a single TD. If just one of Hill's erased TDs had counted, the final score would've been 31-16. Still a manageable score for the best scoring teams. Anymore than that, and the list of teams that can keep up gets pretty small.
Hell, we didn't even need the two Reek TDs....just convert two of the RZ FGs into TDs, which this team is more than capable of doing, and they are at 30 points. They realistically could have had 3-4 TDs in the RZ, and been in the mid to high 30s.....not inconceivable that we could have been mid 30s while still missing out on those Reek TDs....
I know we're saying the same thing, and I agree with everything you're saying. I just laugh because people throw that out there like it's some type of trend. there is no trend....it's happened once in two years, and for most teams, slowing the game down is mutually exclusive to that team being able to score 29+ points to win the game.... [Reply]
Originally Posted by Stryker:
So how do you see the remaining games playing out?
Dolphins
Saints
Falcons
Chargers
Just curious (no I did not read all of the previous posts)
The Saints are a very, very good team. Of any of them, they're the most likely loss. I'm always a little wary of the Chargers, they always seem to play us tough.
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
The Saints are a very, very good team. Of any of them, they're the most likely loss. I'm always a little wary of the Chargers, they always seem to play us tough.
We should beat the Dolphins and Falcons.
and that is why I asked. It is crazy that we get this far and have hope in the Steelers losing and it comes down to the Saints and Chargers. I feel the same way. The Saints will have Brees back and the Chargers game, to me, feels like the Dolphins and Patriots game last season. Fingers crossed! :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Stryker:
and that is why I asked. It is crazy that we get this far and have hope in the Steelers losing and it comes down to the Saints and Chargers. I feel the same way. The Saints will have Brees back and the Chargers game, to me, feels like the Dolphins and Patriots game last season. Fingers crossed! :-)
I wouldn't count on Brees being back. It doesn't sound like the expect him to be ready any time soon. [Reply]
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy:
At the end of the day, if the Chiefs play the football they are capable of playing, it won't matter who the opponent is.
Agree. Somehow though, this 11-1 team feels like they are playing with half urgency most of the time. When the switch is on, it is the most beautiful football ever.
The NO game is a measuring stick. Im looking forward to see if they will put it all together that day. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Stryker:
So how do you see the remaining games playing out?
Dolphins
Saints
Falcons
Chargers
Just curious (no I did not read all of the previous posts)
Really depends. If we beat the Dolphins, Saints, and Falcons AND the Bills beat the Steelers, then we shouldn’t play any of our stars against the Chargers (at least no more than just a series or two).
That could be 14-2, but only because we drop one where we benched a lot of players. [Reply]
Originally Posted by smithandrew051:
Really depends. If we beat the Dolphins, Saints, and Falcons AND the Bills beat the Steelers, then we shouldn’t play any of our stars against the Chargers (at least no more than just a series or two).
That could be 14-2, but only because we drop one where we benched a lot of players.
No.
Even if the Bills beat the Steelers, which gives us the 2nd tiebreaker (common opponents) if we lose to the Chargers, we have 2 conference losses (1st tiebreaker).
In your scenario, resting our starters and losing to the Chargers would give us the #2 seed. [Reply]
Originally Posted by smithandrew051:
Really depends. If we beat the Dolphins, Saints, and Falcons AND the Bills beat the Steelers, then we shouldn’t play any of our stars against the Chargers (at least no more than just a series or two).
That could be 14-2, but only because we drop one where we benched a lot of players.
Chiefs would lose the tiebreaker if they lose that game to Chargers (if Pitt only loses Buffalo game). Conference record for Pittsburgh would be better... Steelers have to lose 2 games to make the Chargers game not matter. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Azide22:
Chiefs would lose the tiebreaker if they lose that game to Chargers (if Pitt only loses Buffalo game). Conference record for Pittsburgh would be better... Steelers have to lose 2 games to make the Chargers game not matter.