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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:31 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by carlos3652:
Shows 1,297 so far via https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

100 more than the numbers posted by that dude. It was probably accurate as of that tweet... but the day isnt over...
Yes, but I can't find where that site was starting from.

So hard to tell.
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LiveSteam 09:32 PM 03-26-2020
OMG ^^^ There he is
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:34 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by cdcox:

[Reply]
Fat Elvis 09:41 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
So when do we see the social distancing impact come into play?
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Week or two — though there is still way too much travel within communities and within the nation.
I think an interesting comparison is a look at the rate of infection when comparing Kansas and Missouri. Kansas implemented social distancing (and other measures) much earlier than Mizzou. Kansas actually had cases before Missouri (and the first death between the two states), but the trajectory of the two states are wildly different. Kansas, as of today, is at 168 cases, and Missouri is currently at 502 cases. Sixty two percent of the cases in Kansas are in the KC metro area (Johnson County, Wyandotte, and Leavenworth Counties).
[Reply]
carlos3652 09:43 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Yes, but I can't find where that site was starting from.

So hard to tell.
Doesn’t matter, we are talking total deaths so far. We are up to 1300 now.

And if you take the total from yesterday (since they are gmt +0) you get the starting point for them.

1027 was there starting point for this website, finished with 1295 (+268) which was higher than yesterday’s rate of 247, which was higher than the 225 deaths the day before.
[Reply]
SnakeXJones 09:49 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by LiveSteam:
Where's Snake Plissken when you need him?
:-)
[Reply]
BigRedChief 09:52 PM 03-26-2020
Is this a fair analysis?

The trajectory of the U.S. #COVID19 epidemic just couldn't be worse, especially compared to other nations.
We've outpaced China and we're racing to hell at a clip well beyond Italy or Spain. pic.twitter.com/cZhK9afPFr

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 26, 2020

[Reply]
BleedingRed 09:55 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by oaklandhater:


We really need a national shutdown like yesterday all the states having their own rules isn't helping any one in the long term.
Freedom isn’t free
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:56 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by carlos3652:
Doesn’t matter, we are talking total deaths so far. We are up to 1300 now.

And if you take the total from yesterday (since they are gmt +0) you get the starting point for them.

1027 was there starting point for this website, finished with 1295 (+268) which was higher than yesterday’s rate of 247, which was higher than the 225 deaths the day before.

well....shit
[Reply]
patteeu 09:57 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis:
I think an interesting comparison is a look at the rate of infection when comparing Kansas and Missouri. Kansas implemented social distancing (and other measures) much earlier than Mizzou. Kansas actually had cases before Missouri (and the first death between the two states), but the trajectory of the two states are wildly different. Kansas, as of today, is at 168 cases, and Missouri is currently at 502 cases. Sixty two percent of the cases in Kansas are in the KC metro area (Johnson County, Wyandotte, and Leavenworth Counties).
Missouri has 2 large urban centers and Kansas has zero. That's got to have something to do with the difference.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 09:58 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Is this a fair analysis?

Wrong

People like you keep screaming about tests per capita, now do the same for the rest. Bunch of confirmation bias
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 10:00 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by cdcox:
The 500 to 800K cases are heavily weighted to early-stage cases because of the exponential growth of this thing. There is a time lag -- around 7 days -- between an early infection and a serious case. I think your 2.5% serious cases is likely a significant under estimate.

To determine the serious case fraction it would be better to look at a place where they are doing more testing and the epidemic was more mature -- like South Korea.
Analyzing approximately 19,000 cases of REPORTED infection (again, totals rates with asymptomatic infection will be higher) in Spain they found:

0 to 10 — 129 cases (.68%), 34 hospitalized (26.36%), 1 in ICU (.78%), 0 death (0%)
11 to 19 — 221 cases (1.17%), 15 hospitalized (6.79%), 0 in ICU (0%), 1 death (.55%)
20 to 29 — 1,285 (6.78%), 183 hospitalized (14.24%), 8 in ICU (.62%), 4 death (.31%)
30 to 49 — 5,127 (27.04%), 1,028 hospitalized (20.05%), 55 in ICU (1.07%), 12 death (.23%)
50 to 69 — 6,045 (31.89%), 2,166 hospitalized (35.83%), 221 in ICU (3.66%), 83 death (1.37%)
70+ — 6,152 (32.45%), 3,388 hospitalized (55.07%), 199 in ICU (3.24%), 705 death (11.46%)

Totals: 35.94% hospitalized, 2.55% in ICU, 4.25% death
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 10:02 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Wrong

People like you keep screaming about tests per capita, now do the same for the rest. Bunch of confirmation bias
She has an ax to grind.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31...ency-response/
[Reply]
DaFace 10:03 PM 03-26-2020
Anyone heard from OTWP today?
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 10:04 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Is this a fair analysis?

I’d like to see this based on population.

China is either lying, an outlier, or lower because they take you away in a box if you go outside.
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