Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Just how ****ing obtuse are you Donger? This is what I responded to.
Not at all. Like I said, are you going to say to someone here who losses someone, "Well, that's too bad, but our deaths per million is much lower than other countries. That's the important number."?
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
I mentioned this yesterday but I exchanged four propane tanks yesterday from a company that normally services restaurants but since those have all closed, they've pivoted to residential deliveries.
For barely $1 dollar more than I could drive down and exchange myself, I had four tanks delivered to my home. And after picking up about 80 pounds of ground beef, tri-tip, red snapper, salmon, shrimp and chicken, I'm good for months. :-)
We butchered a cow about 2 months ago but it was either the sickliest !@#$ing cow ever or we got robbed by the butcher (I'm thinking a little of A, little of B).
I got about 12 steaks out of it, maybe 80 lbs of ground beef, a shitload of roasts and all of it absurdly lean so it makes terrible burgers. The guy I split it with refused to argue with the local boy even though there's no way those guys didn't steal our strip steaks and half the ribeyes. Been doing cows for about 8 years now, I know how much !@#$ing meat they make.
But I have a sous vide to make those roasts into pretty tasty stuff and a Ninja Foodi to take advantage of the fact that people evidently don't eat chicken wings in a crisis (only chicken I could find). About 10 lbs of various fish/shrimp. Probably another 10 lbs of random things I've barbecued/frozen. About 40 lbs of ground beef left.
Yeah - we probably have a couple months of food if we needed to go that route. Coming up with variety will be the tough part and sides are a chore (oh yeah, canned green beans again...) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Not at all. Like I said, are you going to say to someone here who losses someone, "Well, that's too bad, but our deaths per million is much lower than other countries. That's the important number."?
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
We butchered a cow about 2 months ago but it was either the sickliest !@#$ing cow ever or we got robbed by the butcher (I'm thinking a little of A, little of B).
I got about 12 steaks out of it, maybe 80 lbs of ground beef, a shitload of roasts and all of it absurdly lean so it makes terrible burgers. The guy I split it with refused to argue with the local boy even though there's no way those guys didn't steal our strip steaks and half the ribeyes. Been doing cows for about 8 years now, I know how much !@#$ing meat they make.
But I have a sous vide to make those roasts into pretty tasty stuff and a Ninja Foodi to take advantage of the fact that people evidently don't eat chicken wings in a crisis (only chicken I could find). About 10 lbs of various fish/shrimp. Probably another 10 lbs of random things I've barbecued/frozen. About 40 lbs of ground beef left.
Yeah - we probably have a couple months of food if we needed to go that route. Coming up with variety will be the tough part and sides are a chore (oh yeah, canned green beans again...)
Originally Posted by Bob Dole:
At least here, curfew is giving police an excuse to pull over people just going to work at 5:30am. 10pm-6am is ridiculous.
Some of the mayors/government officials issuing the curfews are apparently enjoying the personal powers/authority they have discovered during this ordeal.
For example the city of Miami issued a curfew which includes the restriction of only being able to go out and walk your dog within 250 yards of your residence from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m.
So if you are walking your dog and practicing social distancing 300 yards from your residence at 11 p.m. is that somehow contributing to the spread of COVID-19?
It is just stupid shit that puts needless restrictions on people. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
1,177 deaths / 81,943 cases = .01436
Nope.
80,854 total cases.
1,864 recovered.
1,163 deaths.
That is only 3,027 cases where a result has occurred.
This means that 77,827 cases are still active. Is that active cases correct? Probably not perfect, but being that the majority of our cases are new within the last one and a half weeks you can conclude by far and wide most of our cases have not had a result yet. Thus you cannot include in determining any mortality rate. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Not at all. Like I said, are you going to say to someone here who losses someone, "Well, that's too bad, but our deaths per million is much lower than other countries. That's the important number."?
Originally Posted by DaFace:
I really wish the world would figure out the difference between a mortality rate and CFR. But I'm kind of giving up on that battle.
This helped me understand the differences better:
As an example, consider two populations. One population consists of 1,000 people; 300 of these people have the specified disease, 100 of whom die from the disease. In this case, the mortality rate for the disease is 100 ÷ 1,000 = 0.1, or 10 percent. The case fatality rate is 100 ÷ 300 = 0.33, or 33 percent. The second population also has 1,000 people; 50 people have the disease and 40 die from it. Here the mortality rate is 40 ÷ 1,000 = 0.04, or 4 percent; the case fatality rate, however, is 40 ÷ 50 = 0.8, or 80 percent. The incidence of death from the disease is higher in the first population, but the severity of disease is greater in the second. [Reply]
80,854 total cases.
1,864 recovered.
1,163 deaths.
That is only 3,027 cases where a result has occurred.
This means that 77,827 cases are still active. Is that active cases correct? Probably not perfect, but being that the majority of our cases are new within the last one and a half weeks you can conclude by far and wide most of our cases have not had a result yet. Thus you cannot include in determining any mortality rate.
I get what you're saying, but I think it's silly to say 35% of the people who get this are going to die. [Reply]
80,854 total cases.
1,864 recovered.
1,163 deaths.
That is only 3,027 cases where a result has occurred.
This means that 77,827 cases are still active. Is that active cases correct? Probably not perfect, but being that the majority of our cases are new within the last one and a half weeks you can conclude by far and wide most of our cases have not had a result yet. Thus you cannot include in determining any mortality rate.
I think everyone gets that the number is fluid, but it's what we have as I said earlier. You didn't run the numbers based on what you say we should be using. Why not? [Reply]
80,854 total cases.
1,864 recovered.
1,163 deaths.
That is only 3,027 cases where a result has occurred.
This means that 77,827 cases are still active. Is that active cases correct? Probably not perfect, but being that the majority of our cases are new within the last one and a half weeks you can conclude by far and wide most of our cases have not had a result yet. Thus you cannot include in determining any mortality rate.
I don't think people that recover are getting tested, so those numbers are off I am sure [Reply]
